Canada's Economy, Explained

The Weight We Carry: Debt, Wealth and Risk in Canadian Households with Stephen Poloz

For years, Canada has been described as a stable economy. Strong banks. Disciplined policy. Rising household wealth. But underneath that stability, something else has been doing much of the heavy lifting — households.  Canadian households now carry some of the highest debt burdens in the advanced world, with mortgage debt and housing wealth increasingly shaping not just personal finances, but the broader trajectory of the economy itself. What happens when growth becomes deeply tied to household balance sheets? And what does that mean for productivity, business investment, inequality, and long-term economic resilience?  In this episode, Marwa Abdou sits down with Stephen Poloz, Special Advisor at Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP, 9th Governor of the Bank of Canada, and author of The Next Age of Uncertainty (2022). Together, they unpack the deeper structural forces behind Canada’s household debt story, from post-financial crisis monetary policy and housing markets to productivity stagnation and the changing nature of financial stability itself.  This episode also explores why household debt is no longer just a question of financial risk but is increasingly a question about growth itself. Because when economies rely heavily on household leverage to sustain momentum, stability can begin to depend on households continually absorbing more pressure. And eventually, the question is not just whether the system can withstand shocks… but what the system stops being able to build. Links: - Stephen Poloz, Special Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP [https://www.osler.com/en/people/stephen-poloz/] - The Next Age of Uncertainty: How the World Can Adapt to a Riskier Future [https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/696629/the-next-age-of-uncertainty-by-stephen-poloz/9780735243927] by Stephen Poloz - Stephen S. Poloz, Bank of Canada [https://www.bankofcanada.ca/profile/stephen-s-poloz/] - -Stephen S Poloz BoC Speech 2018: Canada's economy and household debt - how big is the problem? [https://www.bis.org/review/r180503a.htm] Additional Resources: - The Hub: “At 103% of GDP, Canadian households have the most debt in the G7 [https://thehub.ca/2026/04/20/at-103-percent-of-gdp-canadian-households-have-the-most-debt-in-the-g7/]” - OECD Housing Policy Toolkit [https://housingpolicytoolkit.oecd.org/] - Canadian Bankers Association: Household Borrowing in Canada [https://cba.ca/article/household-borrowing-in-canada] - Statistics Canada National Balance Sheet Accounts [https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610058001] - OECD Household Debt [https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/household-debt.html] - IMF Canada Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2025/07/31/canada-financial-system-stability-assessment-press-release-and-staff-report-569167] - House of Debt: How They (and You) Caused the Great Recession, and How We Can Prevent It from Happening Again [https://press.uchicago.edu/books/excerpt/2014/Mian-Sufi_House_of_Debt.html] by Atif Mian & Amir Sufi

Their Dollar, Everyone’s Problem: The Architecture of U.S. Dollar Dominance and Global Monetary Power with Kenneth Rogoff

You earn it in one currency. You spend it in one place. It feels local. Personal. Contained.  But the system that determines how money actually behaves operates at a different level entirely.  In this episode, host Marwa Abdou sits down with Kenneth Rogoff, Maurits C. Boas Professor of Economics at Harvard University and author of Our Dollar, Your Problem, to unpack the architecture of U.S. dollar dominance and what it means for the global economy.  For decades, the U.S. dollar has functioned as the backbone of global finance. It anchors trade, shapes capital flows and influences borrowing costs far beyond U.S. borders. But that dominance is not static.  Drawing on decades of research, Rogoff explains why the dollar’s influence persists, how it is evolving and where underlying vulnerabilities are beginning to surface. From rising U.S. debt and shifting interest rate dynamics to the growing use of financial sanctions and the emergence of competing systems, this conversation explores the forces quietly reshaping the global monetary order.  This is not a story about the dollar disappearing. It’s a story about what happens when the system built around it begins to shift. Links: - Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University [https://rogoff.scholars.harvard.edu/] - “Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider's View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead” - Yale University Press [https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300275315/our-dollar-your-problem/] - “The Curse of Cash” - Princeton University Press [https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691172132/the-curse-of-cash] - This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff [https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691152646/this-time-is-different?srsltid=AfmBOop5feEOBZZDEPDeOmOW1AA6XrZdoORS9P6a_uLpnAQb8be1rQhI] - "Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?" by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Kenneth S. Rogoff - [https://rogoff.scholars.harvard.edu/publications/exchange-rate-arrangement-21st-century-which-anchor-currency-will-hold]"Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-Rate Period" by Richard Meese and Kenneth Rogoff [https://rogoff.scholars.harvard.edu/publications/was-it-real-exchange-rate-interest-differential-relation-over-modern-floating-ra]

Why Are Things Still Expensive? The Economics Behind the Inflation Hangover with Claudia Sahm & Doug Porter

Inflation is cooling. The data says the worst is behind us. So why does everything still feel so expensive?  In this episode, we unpack one of the defining economic puzzles facing advanced economies today: The gap between what the numbers say and what people actually feel. Because inflation isn’t just about how fast prices are rising, it’s about where they land, and what it takes to live with that shift.  Featuring insights from Chief Economist Claudia Sahm and BMO Chief Economist Doug Porter, this episode explores how pandemic-era inflation reset the price level, why higher interest rates are still working their way through the system, and how housing, debt and timing are shaping the Canadian experience. Along the way, we dig into the difference between supply- and demand-driven inflation, the limits of monetary policy, and why the “way down” can feel just as difficult as the way up.   Links: - Claudia Sahm - Website [https://claudiasahm.com/] - Claudia Sahm - Bloomberg [https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/AUVWWumbCcs/claudia-sahm] - Claudia Sahm – Substack “Stay-At-Home-Macro" [https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/] - Douglas Porter – BMO Economics [https://economics.bmo.com/en/our-economists/economist-details/41/] - Doug Porter Talking Points - “It Ain’t Over ’til It’s Over” [https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/d5c99fee-15a1-41e4-b81f-9ef86c86027d/] - Doug Porter Talking Points - “Whole Lotta Hold” [https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/df772746-2b13-4dfa-97e3-1ebc7e69255e/]

From Points to Paycheques: The Interconnection Between Canada's Immigration Design and the Skills Gap with Anna Triandafyllidou and Christopher Worswick

Canada has built one of the most ambitious immigration systems in the world. For decades, our system has selected newcomers based on education, language ability and professional experience, with the expectation that those skills will translate into economic opportunity.  But that translation is not automatic.  In this episode, host Marwa Abdou, migration scholar Dr. Anna Triandafyllidou and labour economist Dr. Christopher Worswick examine a central tension at the heart of Canada’s immigration model: The gap between how systems measure talent before arrival and how labour markets translate talent after arrival.   Drawing on research from Statistics Canada, the OECD and leading Canadian economists, we explore how credentials are evaluated, how employers interpret unfamiliar experience, and how institutions such as licensing bodies, hiring practices and social networks shape who gets access to opportunity.  This episode connects system design to labour market outcomes. From the role of signals and recognition to the long-term evolution of immigrant earnings, it considers how early job matches, selection policies and economic conditions interact over time.  As Canada continues to rely on immigration for labour force growth, the question is no longer simply who gets in but whether the economy can convert potential into productivity.  Links: - Anna Triandafyllidou, TMU [https://www.torontomu.ca/cerc-migration/People/anna-triandafyllidou/]  - Migrant Integration in the Mid-21st Century: Bridging Divides [https://www.torontomu.ca/bridging-divides/]  - Christopher Worswick, Carleton University [https://carleton.ca/economics/people/worswick-christopher/]  - Christopher Worswick, C.D. Howe Institute [https://cdhowe.org/our-people/christopher-worswick/]  - How We Subverted our Skills Based Immigration System – Green, Worswick et al. [https://cdhowe.org/publication/how-we-subverted-our-skills-based-immigration-system/]  - Immigrant Earnings Profiles in the Presence of Human Capital Investment: Measuring Cohort and Macro Effects – Green, Worswick et al. [https://economics.ubc.ca/wp-content/uploads/sites/38/2013/05/pdf_paper_david-green-immigrant-earnings-profiles-presence.pdf]  - Entry Earnings of Immigrant Men in Canada: The Roles of Labour Market Entry Effects and Returns to Foreign Experience – Green, Worswick et al. [https://economics.ubc.ca/wp-content/uploads/sites/38/2013/05/pdf_paper_david-green-entry-earnings-immigrant-men.pdf]

Postal Codes and Power: Who Gets to Grow Canada’s Economy? Part II with Ken Coates

What if economic growth is real but only in certain places?  In this special two-part episode, we move beyond headline GDP to examine the territorial foundations of economic development. Guest Dr. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, Princesa de Asturias Chair in Economic Geography at the London School of Economics, and Director of the Cañada Blanch Centre, draws on decades of research to explain how regions fall into what he calls a development trap. These are not necessarily the poorest places. They are often middle-income regions that once thrived and are now quietly falling behind. Policy concentrates investment in major hubs and assumes spillovers will follow — the evidence suggests otherwise.   In part one, host Marwa Abdou and Dr. Rodríguez-Pose explore the limits of place-neutral policy, the risks of betting national growth on a handful of metropolitan centers, and why institutions, not just markets, determine long-run prosperity.   In part two, Dr. Ken Coates, Distinguished Fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute and Professor of Indigenous Governance at Yukon University, brings the Canadian terrain into focus. From resource regions to Indigenous governance and northern economies, we examine how institutional capacity, local ownership and mobilizing latent potential shape opportunity across a vast federation.  Because when capability clusters by postal code, growth stops being a national statistic and becomes a question of power. Links: - Ken Coates - Distinguished Fellow in Aboriginal and Northern Canadian Issues, Macdonald-Laurier Institute [https://macdonaldlaurier.ca/cm-expert/ken-coates/] - “The Provincial North is the Centrepiece of Canadian Nation-Building" by Ken Coates for the Globe & Mail [https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-provincial-north-is-the-centrepiece-of-canadian-nation-building/] - #IdleNoMore And the Remaking of Canada by Ken Coates [https://uofrpress.ca/Books/9/IdleNoMore] - Google Scholar - Ken S. Coates [https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=h4JMS2kAAAAJ&hl=en]