Market Flash - ENG

Market Flash of May 16, 2026

In this episode: * S&P 500, Nasdaq and Semiconductors have staged an extraordinary rally from their March lows (+17%, +27% and +65%), fueled by record systematic fund flows, gamma squeeze dynamics and buybacks, but the rally remains concentrated in a handful of tech names while the average stock is still 13% below its highs. * Artificial intelligence remains the true market driver: hyperscalers are "sold out," AI capex is expected to exceed $800 billion in 2026 and compute demand is growing at over 80% annually, but structural constraints are emerging in energy, chips and memory, already sold out through 2027. * An exceptional earnings season — over 80% of S&P companies have beaten expectations with EPS growth of +27% — but beneath the surface, divergence is widening, with signs of stress among lower-income consumers and AI beginning to reshape the labor market. * The energy shock linked to the Middle East is intensifying: global inventories declining at crisis-level pace, the UAE's exit from OPEC, US gasoline up 53% in ten weeks and the 30-year Treasury above 5%, with an increasingly divided Fed. * The US-Europe divergence is growing, along with the underappreciated risk of "financial nationalism," as governments begin directing domestic savings toward local investments, potentially reducing support for US markets. The key message is that the market appears resilient yet fragile: supported by strong earnings and the AI narrative, it is nonetheless colliding with real-world constraints on energy, infrastructure and the cost of capital, creating an increasingly delicate balance and a rising risk of volatility in the months ahead.

Market Flash of April 28, 2026

EMAIL SUBJECT: Market Flash – April 28, 2026 — New US highs, but beneath the surface the system is fragile MARKET FLASH – APRIL 28, 2026 In this episode: * The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new all-time highs, driven by positioning and better-than-expected earnings. The rally was fueled by the forced re-entry of systematic funds, retail flows, and hedge fund short covering, but the geopolitical backdrop remains far from resolved. * The US earnings season is surprising to the upside by roughly 10% above already optimistic expectations. Intel raised its guidance and the SOX posted 18 consecutive positive sessions (+50%) — something not seen even during the tech bubble. Attention now shifts to Amazon, Meta, and Google. * Europe remains in the balance: Stoxx 600 growth is driven almost entirely by energy and financials, German PMIs have fallen back into contraction, and margins are starting to compress across the production chain. The energy shock is feeding through into the real economy. * The Strait of Hormuz is no longer just a physical chokepoint but a geopolitical and financial instrument, with US military presence increasing. Markets are pricing a swift normalization, but the reality on the ground is much slower and more unstable. This is a multi-fuel crisis about real availability, not just prices. The key message is one of informed caution: strong markets and solid earnings coexist with deep vulnerabilities — geopolitical tensions, energy scarcity, margin pressure, and the risk of more persistent inflation. Beneath the surface, the global system is far more fragile than asset prices suggest. Central bank meetings are also on the agenda this week: guidance on inflation and energy costs will be critical in shaping expectations around the timing and scale of future rate moves. To learn more, listen to the latest episode of the Market Flash podcast, hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics. Opus 4.6

Market Flash of April 14, 2026

In this episode: * The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted seven consecutive up days while Europe recorded its strongest single-day rally since March 2022. The rebound has been rapid, almost V-shaped, but the backdrop remains far more fragile than prices suggest. * The two-week truce looks more like a tactical pause than a solution: no strategic objective achieved, no nuclear deal, no return to energy normality. The estimated cost to the US runs close to 1 billion dollars a day. * The central issue remains Hormuz: headlines read "ceasefire," but in practice traffic through the Strait is still heavily reduced. The market is pricing financial peace well before physical peace, with much of the good news already baked in. * The energy crisis is multi-fuel and potentially more systemic than 2022, with energy security driving structural demand for strategic metals. Inflation risks transmitting more deeply, while earnings season begins with +12% EPS expectations in a macro-driven market. The key message is one of clear-eyed caution: the market has risen because it chose to believe the worst can still be avoided, but history teaches us that after shocks of this kind, the path is rarely a perfect V — far more often a W, made up of rebounds, fresh disappointments, and repeated tests of confidence. This is a time to stay cautious and, when appropriate, think like a contrarian. For more, listen to the latest episode of the Market Flash podcast, by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

Market Flash of March 31, 2026

In this episode: * The past two weeks have marked a sharp acceleration: what was once a choppy sea has turned into a full-blown storm. March is closing with one of the worst combined performances for equities and bonds since 2022, with Brent firmly above $110, up more than 60% since the start of the conflict. * Markets continue to tell themselves a reassuring story, but signals beneath the surface suggest we may only be at the beginning of something more profound. The comparison now emerging is no longer 2022, but 2007–2008: the buffers that existed back then are today much thinner. * The real game-changer in this crisis is gas. The disruption at Hormuz and the damage in Qatar have sent Asian gas prices surging by more than 150% in just a few weeks. Energy is becoming political leverage: the United States is using it as a negotiating tool with Europe, with agreements tied to roughly $750 billion in energy supply. * Investors are selling everything at once — equities, bonds and even gold — moving into cash, but from historically low levels. The de-risking process may only just be beginning, with a real risk of entering a stagflationary environment that further complicates the mandate of central banks. The key message is one of clarity: what is needed is composure, discipline, and the courage to make decisions with a clear head, not out of fear. In markets, just as at sea, it is not those who avoid the storm who prevail — but those who navigate through it without losing their way. To find out more, listen to the latest episode of the Market Flash podcast, hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

Market Flash of March 17, 2026

In this episode:Recent weeks have confirmed an increasingly complex market environment. Despite some signs of apparent geopolitical easing, macro markets continue to signal greater tension than what is reflected in equity indices. Oil remains close to $100 per barrel, U.S. Treasury yields have risen significantly, and inflation and credit indicators point to a gradual tightening of financial conditions. Equity indices, however, remain relatively close to their highs, suggesting that the market is still betting on a temporary crisis rather than a genuine regime change.Beyond energy, vulnerabilities are emerging across several strategic supply chains, including aluminum, refined fuels such as jet fuel, industrial gases like helium—critical for semiconductor production—and fertilizers. Essential infrastructure such as water desalination plants in the Gulf also represents potential points of fragility in the event of a prolonged conflict.This combination of pressures on energy, metals, and production chains increases the risk of a more complex macro scenario, characterized by persistent inflation and weaker growth. Such a backdrop complicates the task of central banks, precisely as the European Central Bank prepares for its next meeting amid high uncertainty.Equity markets are also reflecting this more uncertain environment. Major indices still show some resilience, but beneath the surface there are signs of growing nervousness, with sector rotation in Europe affecting cyclical industries such as luxury, construction, banking, and travel. In this context, some investors are once again looking with greater interest at large U.S. technology companies, perceived as more resilient businesses in an uncertain geopolitical environment.The key message remains cautious. In a market increasingly characterized by uncertainty and rapid rotations, flexibility, discipline, and risk management are becoming essential to navigate the coming months.To learn more, listen to the latest episode of the Market Flash podcast series, curated by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.