The wheel of risk: Navigating geopolitical transition and the future of trade

The wheel of risk: Navigating geopolitical transition and the future of trade

As global power dynamics shift and economic uncertainty reshapes trade flows, understanding geopolitical risk has become a business imperative. In this episode of Trade Treasury Payments, we explore how political transitions, strategic competition, economic fragmentation and regional conflicts are influencing the future of global commerce. From changing trade corridors and supply chain resilience to sanctions, regulation and market volatility, our guests examine the forces redefining international trade and what they mean for businesses operating across borders. Join us for an insightful discussion on navigating risk in an increasingly complex world. We unpack the interconnected challenges facing corporates, financial institutions and policymakers, while highlighting the opportunities emerging from a rapidly evolving global landscape. Whether you work in trade, treasury, payments or risk management, this episode offers valuable perspectives to help you stay informed, adapt with confidence and make better decisions in a period of profound geopolitical transition.

The missing rails behind the $2.5 trillion trade finance gap

The latest episode explores the structural pressures behind the two point five trillion dollar trade finance gap and why the industry’s long‑standing explanations no longer hold. Drawing on insights from Ayo Ojerinola, Founder and CEO of NOBO Finance, the discussion looks at why SMEs remain locked out of essential capital even when they are creditworthy. As Ojerinola notes, “the cost of compliance and due diligence stays the same,” a reality that makes smaller transactions economically unviable and leaves many businesses unable to scale or compete. The conversation then turns to the deeper issues shaping emerging markets, from fragmented data and misaligned regulatory frameworks to the absence of interoperable digital infrastructure. With intra African trade still at fourteen per cent, the episode examines the missing rails that prevent capital from flowing where it is most needed and why interoperability and scalable architecture are central to building a more inclusive global trading system. It is a clear, grounded look at the barriers that persist and the opportunities that remain within reach when the right foundations are in place.

Premeditated Industrial Destruction: Is energy policy throttling UK industry?

Is the UK deliberately pricing its own industries out of existence? In this video, we examine the growing debate around Britain’s energy policies, industrial competitiveness, and the long-term consequences of Net Zero legislation. Drawing on arguments presented in the Great British Business Council’s report Premeditated Industrial Destruction, the discussion explores how rising energy costs, carbon taxes, regulatory pressures, and increasing reliance on imported fuel may be impacting sectors such as steel, chemicals, manufacturing, cement, and heavy industry. We break down the economic, political, and strategic questions surrounding UK energy policy, including claims that deindustrialisation is weakening domestic production, reducing investment, and shifting emissions overseas rather than reducing them globally. Whether you agree or disagree with the report’s conclusions, this conversation offers an in-depth look at one of the most controversial issues facing Britain’s economy today. Watch, share your thoughts in the comments, and subscribe for more analysis on trade, energy, industry, and economic policy.

Multilateralism 2.0

Multilateralism is no longer confined to governments, closed door negotiations, and legacy institutions. In this conversation, we explore how a new era of global cooperation is taking shape through what many are calling “Multilateralism 2.0” — a more connected, decentralised, and network driven approach to solving cross border challenges. From trade and finance to digital infrastructure and geopolitical coordination, the discussion looks at how institutions, businesses, and communities are adapting to a rapidly changing global order. As global trade becomes increasingly fragmented and interconnected at the same time, the need for practical collaboration has never been greater. This episode examines the role of technology, emerging markets, financial innovation, and public private partnerships in shaping the future of international cooperation. Expect thoughtful insights, honest perspectives, and meaningful discussion from leaders working at the centre of trade, treasury, payments, and global policy. Brought to you by Trade Treasury Payments, the independent platform delivering the conversations that matter across transaction banking and global commerce.

Commodity finance in 2026: Bigger deals, fewer players

Commodity finance is changing fast. In 2026, deal sizes are rising, the lender pool is shrinking, and market segmentation is becoming more pronounced. In this conversation, industry experts break down what’s driving the shift — from billion‑dollar structures and tighter onboarding to traders increasingly financing each other as banks pull back. We explore how access to capital is reshaping global commodity flows, why fewer players now dominate the market, and what this means for liquidity, counterparty risk and working‑capital resilience. The discussion also looks at how Basel IV, risk appetite, and recent stress events are influencing the availability and structure of financing across the commodity supply chain.