Professor Altman on Private Credit, LMEs and the State of the Credit Cycle

Professor Altman on Private Credit, LMEs and the State of the Credit Cycle

Why does a credit-risk model built in 1968 still attract 5,000 hits a day on Bloomberg? And more importantly, what does it tell us about today's market? In this episode, NYU Stern Professor of Finance Emeritus Edward Altman — inventor of the Z-score and a Turnaround Time favorite — returns for a wide-ranging conversation with James H.M. Sprayregen, vice chairman of global strategy and growth at Hilco Global. Professor Altman shares the story behind the model's creation, reasons why it has endured for nearly 60 years, and the role it played in his testimony against the General Motors bailout in 2008. He and Sprayregen then unpack the four stages of the credit cycle and explain why today's market sends mixed signals: benign on the fixed-rate high-yield side, stressed on the floating-rate side. The conversation turns to the $2.5 trillion private credit market and the gap between published default rates of under 2% and Professor Altman's "shadow" default rate, which, once payment-in-kind exercises and non-accruals are included, climbs closer to 10%. They also dig into the roughly 60% LME re-default rate his research suggests, and of course, what all of it means for banks, insurers, pension funds, and the broader question of systemic risk. To learn more about turnaround management, news, and experts, visit turnaround.org [https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://turnaround.org__;!!G9SbbpF9l4hqjg!VnAfRXnB_Cew2c2mdbIK17wFhj-0dYeI6yp6SDeshl2_kw57kXT3BDR01XYXXoBf8UOmLB4GxGF5fbA7-vwlgA$]. Episode Links View Professor Altman's slides here. [https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://files.constantcontact.com/869548c2201/5873b400-52b9-4d01-88e5-79c4425810f1.pdf__;!!G9SbbpF9l4hqjg!VnAfRXnB_Cew2c2mdbIK17wFhj-0dYeI6yp6SDeshl2_kw57kXT3BDR01XYXXoBf8UOmLB4GxGF5fbBjlhj_2w$] Our episode is sponsored by EisnerAmper. [https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.eisneramper.com/__;!!G9SbbpF9l4hqjg!VnAfRXnB_Cew2c2mdbIK17wFhj-0dYeI6yp6SDeshl2_kw57kXT3BDR01XYXXoBf8UOmLB4GxGF5fbBdM8zplQ$] Learn more about Ed Altman [https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.stern.nyu.edu/faculty/bio/edward-altman__;!!G9SbbpF9l4hqjg!VnAfRXnB_Cew2c2mdbIK17wFhj-0dYeI6yp6SDeshl2_kw57kXT3BDR01XYXXoBf8UOmLB4GxGF5fbCyvl7L8A$]. Learn more about James H.M. Sprayregen [https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://hilcoglobal.com/leadership/james-h-m-sprayregen/__;!!G9SbbpF9l4hqjg!VnAfRXnB_Cew2c2mdbIK17wFhj-0dYeI6yp6SDeshl2_kw57kXT3BDR01XYXXoBf8UOmLB4GxGF5fbCr5ihFFg$]. Learn more about the Turnaround Management Association at turnaround.org [https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.turnaround.org/__;!!G9SbbpF9l4hqjg!VnAfRXnB_Cew2c2mdbIK17wFhj-0dYeI6yp6SDeshl2_kw57kXT3BDR01XYXXoBf8UOmLB4GxGF5fbB-W7m3Gw$]. Our music is by Kit and the Calltones.

Distressed M&A Due Diligence: Legal, Financial and Operational Insights from the Front Lines

What does it take to buy or sell a company when time is running out, and the stakes couldn't be higher? In this episode, Bethany D. Simmons of Loeb & Loeb LLP leads a panel of restructuring pros (Skylar Bonné, Michael Sabino and Michael Sicari) through the unique challenges of due diligence in distressed M&A transactions. Together, they explore what happens when traditional deal timelines collide with liquidity crunches, covenant breaches and the very real deadline of a company's cash running out. The panel unpacks the critical differences between in-court Section 363 sales and out-of-court transactions, the risks of successor liability in asset versus stock sales, and the hidden pitfalls lurking in everything from outdated ERP systems to improperly burdened overhead costs. From PII and intellectual property considerations to the art of positioning distressed assets for the right buyer, this conversation offers practical insights for anyone navigating the high-pressure world of distressed transactions. To learn more about turnaround management, news, and experts, visit turnaround.org [https://www.turnaround.org/]. Episode Links Our episode is sponsored by GlassRatner. [https://glassratner.com/] Learn more about Skylar Bonné [https://www.linkedin.com/in/skylarbonne/]. Learn more about Michael Sabino [https://www.troutman.com/professionals/michael-a-sabino/]. Learn more about Michael Sicari. [https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-sicari-cfa-95216a34/] Learn more about Bethany D. Simmons [https://www.loeb.com/en/people/s/simmons-bethany]. Learn more about the Turnaround Management Association here [https://www.turnaround.org/nyc]. Our music is by Kit and the Calltones.

Behind the Bench: In Conversation with Chief Judge Christine M. Gravelle

What drives someone to become a bankruptcy judge? And what does it take to lead one of the nation's busiest bankruptcy districts while maintaining warmth, wisdom… and a sense of humor? In this episode, TMA NYC's NOW leaders Fran Falchook and Rita Ginzburg sit down with the Honorable Chief Judge Christine M. Gravelle of the Bankruptcy Court for the District of New Jersey for an intimate conversation that explores the person behind the robe. Judge Gravelle shares her journey from growing up in the Berkshires to navigating law school at night as a new working mother. Her path led her to a career in bankruptcy law and eventually the bench, where she oversees some of the nation's most complex restructuring cases. This episode offers rare insight into the judicial perspective on bankruptcy and restructuring through the lens of lived experience, personal growth and the networks that support us all. To learn more about turnaround management, news, and experts, visit turnaround.org. Episode LinksOur episode is sponsored by Archer & Greiner [https://www.archerlaw.com/en]. Learn more about Fran Falchook [https://www.linkedin.com/in/francine-falchook-326b6a3/]. Learn more about Rita Y. Ginzburg. [https://www.windelsmarx.com/people/margarita-ginzburg] Learn more about Judge Christine M. Gravelle [https://www.njb.uscourts.gov/content/honorable-christine-m-gravelle]. Learn more about the Turnaround Management Association here [https://www.turnaround.org/nyc]. Our music is by Kit and the Calltones.

Tales from the Trenches: A Father-Son Conversation on 40 Years of Restructuring

In this unique episode, restructuring legend Moe Bordwin sits down with his son Harold for a conversation that spans four decades of industry evolution. Moe founded Keen-Summit Capital Partners in 1982 during the height of the leveraged buyout era, when junk bond financing fueled spectacular corporate collapses and created opportunities for skilled restructuring professionals. He shares vivid stories from the rough-and-tumble world of 1980s retail restructuring, including his work on the Bonwit Teller bankruptcy — the iconic Fifth Avenue department store whose demolition for Trump Tower became a symbol of an era's excess. Harold, now principal and co-president of Keen-Summit alongside his brother Matthew, brings the perspective of today's sophisticated restructuring practice. Under their leadership, the firm has handled over $3 billion in transactions across 27,000 properties, representing clients from property owners to commercial tenants across various industries. This father-son conversation offers rare insights into how the restructuring industry evolved from its Wild West origins to today's professional practice. To learn more about turnaround management, news, and experts, visit turnaround.org [http://turnaround.org/]. Episode Links Our episode is sponsored by Arthur B. Levine Co., Inc. [https://levinecompany.com/] Learn more about Harold Bordwin at Keen-Summit Capital Partners. [https://www.keen-summit.com/our-team/harold-bordwin/] Learn more about the Turnaround Management Association here [https://www.turnaround.org/nyc]. Our music is by Kit and the Calltones.

Z-Score & Beyond: Edward Altman on Market Cycles, Tariffs, and Distressed Exchanges

https://lp.constantcontactpages.com/cu/KnR13hm/turnaroundtimeThe inventor of the famous Z-score for evaluating corporate financial distress — and Turnaround Time favorite — NYU Professor of Finance Emeritus Edward Altman returns for his fourth appearance on our podcast. In this episode, Professor Altman discusses the evolution of the Z-score over nearly 60 years, shares insights on current market conditions, including the impact of tariffs on corporate distress, and reveals surprising trends in distressed exchanges. In this episode, Professor Altman is interviewed by Joseph Sarachek, managing partner of The Sarachek Firm and adjunct professor at NYU Stern School of Business. To learn more about turnaround management, news, and experts, visit turnaround.org [https://my.turnaround.org/Chapters/Chapter-Home-Page?pa_chapterid=38200680-95CC-EC11-A7B5-0022482F86EF]. Episode Links View Professor Altman's slides here [https://files.constantcontact.com/869548c2201/7c7a28a6-04fc-4c20-b2b2-c58b57cfb23b.pdf]. Our episode is sponsored by Change Capital. [https://change.capital/] Learn more about Ed Altman at NYU Leonard N. Stern School of Business [https://www.stern.nyu.edu/faculty/bio/edward-altman]. Learn more about Joseph Saracheck at Saracheck Law. [https://www.saracheklawfirm.com/who-we-are] Learn more about the Turnaround Management Association here [https://www.turnaround.org/nyc]. Our music is by Kit and the Calltones.