Barclays Brief

Decoding the bond sell-off

Global bond yields have been rising sharply, with long-term yields breaking higher across multiple markets - pushing US 30‑year yields above 5%. The sell-off was initially triggered by energy-linked inflation resulting from the Iran war, but increasingly reflects a broader, cross‑market re-pricing, with fiscal pressures, shifting rate expectations and signs of bear‑flattening emerging in key markets. In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Lucile Flight, Managing Director in Rates Trading, joins Patrick Coffey to examine what’s driving the move in different regions – from political uncertainty shaping UK gilts to changing views on neutral rates in the US and a dialled-back ECB response in Europe. They discuss what could bring yields down again and where investors are seeing the most compelling opportunities across global rates. Listeners can hear more on this topic: * Inflation crosscurrents: Energy vs AI [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/inflation-crosscurrents-energy-vs-ai.html] * European rates: Inflation & AI waves collide [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/european-rates-inflation-ai-waves-collide.html] Clients can read more on Barclays Live: * Thinking Macro: No saving grace [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a0b367824c0231922cd657a] * Federal Reserve Commentary: What would trigger a 2026 Fed hike? [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a07867d2e2d9364ae36659e ] * United Kingdom Outlook: What a week... [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a075c06a4ec842cd36de6f6 ] * Global Economics Weekly: Leaders meet and bonds shriek [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a07a839de8e2907458924c2 ]

Inflation crosscurrents: Energy vs AI

Markets are facing two competing inflation stories at the same time: a near‑term energy shock pushing inflation risks higher, and the possibility that AI acts as a medium to longer-run disinflationary force. In this episode of Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey, Global Head of the Product Management, sits down with Jon Hill, Head of US Inflation Strategy, to break down how energy price spikes feed into headline versus core inflation, what breakevens and real yields are signalling, and how central banks may respond to energy shocks they can’t control. They also discuss whether core inflation dynamics are drifting back toward a pre‑COVID structure, and how AI could shape the path ahead through productivity, wages and margins. Listeners can hear more on this topic: * Jet fuel shortage: Holidays at risk? [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/jet-fuel-shortage-holidays-at-risk.html] * European rates: Inflation & AI waves collide [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/european-rates-inflation-ai-waves-collide.html] Clients can read more on Barclays Live: * The view from overseas [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP69fa06d7bff29476e7d72457&restriction=DEBT] * A Claudy inflation outlook [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP69a74facfcce2d43ad7b0c31&restriction=DEBT] Important Content Disclosures [https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-content-disclosures.html]

Jet fuel shortage: Holidays at risk?

Jet fuel shortages linked to the continuing Iran war are dominating headlines, raising questions about whether this poses a genuine risk to global travel or whether markets are getting ahead of the reality. As the airline industry moves toward the peak summer travel period, Patrick Coffey sits down with our Head of European Transport Equity Research, Andrew Lobbenberg, to dissect what’s happening in aviation fuel markets. They explore the known knowns and the known unknowns at this moment, including why Europe is more exposed than other regions, and who will likely bear the costs if constraints persist. The episode also examines the realistic scenarios for airlines and passengers, from short‑term disruption to longer-term implications. Listen now to cut through the headlines and understand what this period of uncertainty means for the aviation sector, its investors and its consumers. Clients can read more on Barclays Live: •European Transportation: Airline potential fuel shortages [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP69cd26acbaa6175d731d9e2e] •European Airlines: Messy uncertain days - March quarter preview [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP69d8e26df20c3f6b64636a88] •European Integrated Energy: Assessing the diesel and kerosene shortage risk [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP69ce4bae55d8d200a81ba777] •European Lodging - War and Peace: Scenario Analysis on Conflict, Fuel Supply and Oil Prices [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP69de6a024626aa1fe40703f4] Important Content Disclosures [https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-content-disclosures.html]

Credit: the signals markets can’t ignore

Credit markets often process stress before other parts of the market are able to. During periods of volatility, the signals they send can help investors distinguish between shocks that are likely to prove temporary and those that risk becoming more systemic. In this episode of Barclays Brief, Ronnie Wexler, Head of Equities, sits down with Drew Mogavero, Global Head of Credit Products and CEO of Barclays Capital Inc., to explore why credit markets have remained relatively stable during recent periods of stress. They discuss how investment‑grade and higher quality high yield have continued to find support and what this demand reveals about market conditions. The conversation also looks at how credit signals can inform views across equities and rates, where stress tends to emerge first, and what today’s market dynamics reveal about the broader economic backdrop. Listeners can hear more on this topic: * Processing uncertainty in real time [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/processing-uncertainty-in-real-time.html] * Credit markets: What's ahead for 2026 [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/credit-markets-whats-ahead-for-2026.html] * Private credit: Hidden interconnectivity [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/private-credit-hidden-interconnectivity.html] Clients can read more on Barclays Live: * Not that quiet beneath the surface [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP69ea9d680a0b910e3e1e9693&restriction=DEBT] * Woes of waiting [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP69ea57555426051019010261&restriction=DEBT] Important Content Disclosures [https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-content-disclosures.html] Important non-Research Content Disclosures [https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-nonresearch-content-disclosures.html]

Robots deliver dinner and profits

Food delivery is changing fast, with last-mile autonomous hardware being developed and deployed at pace. In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Guillaume Galland to explore how robots and drones are beginning to reshape food delivery economics around the world. Drawing on ground‑level observations from cities including Los Angeles, Helsinki, Dublin and Dubai, Guillaume explains why autonomous delivery adoption differs by geography, and why some markets are already seeing meaningful penetration. The conversation breaks down the two core technologies now in play – aerial drones and ground‑based robots – and they discuss where each are best suited to excel. The discussion also covers the economics driving momentum in the sector – how autonomous delivery stacks up against human couriers from costs, speed and reliability, and if they offer an enhancement for consumers and restaurants alike. They also look past the exciting developments and look at the hurdles that remain, ranging from regulation and operational complexity. Crucially, this is not about replacing human riders altogether, as Guillaume explains. Physical AI is a structural lever that will sit alongside traditional delivery models, changing how the last mile works rather than removing people from it. Listen in to understand where autonomous food delivery is gaining traction, what’s holding it back, and why it matters for platforms, restaurants and investors watching the future of last‑mile logistics. Clients can read more on Barclays Live: * Robot at the Door: Last-Mile Shift [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP69c254340721b1499de0d621] Listeners can also hear more episodes about developments of physical AI: * Robotaxis: The future of mobility [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/robotaxis-the-future-of-mobility.html?cid=shownotes_podcast___2604BB28MR____] * Rise of the humanoid robots [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/rise-of-the-humanoid-robots.html?cid=shownotes_podcast___2604BB28MR____] * AI Revolution: China’s Five-Year Plan [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/AI-Revolution-China-Five-Year-Plan.html?cid=shownotes_podcast___2604BB28MR____] Important Content Disclosures [https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-content-disclosures.html] Important non-Research Content Disclosures [https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-nonresearch-content-disclosures.html]