Progress by Fifty Years

Brian Armstrong's blueprint for an American Wakanda

Brian Armstrong is the co-founder and CEO of Coinbase, the largest legal crypto exchange in America. In 2012, Brian started Coinbase out of Y Combinator after reading the Bitcoin whitepaper, then took it public on Nasdaq nine years later. Today, Coinbase is worth over $50 billion and serves over 100 million users. He's since co-founded his second unicorn called NewLimit, a biotech company that’s extending human life. In this conversation, Brian makes a case for “disagreeable optimism”: that doing anything good in the world means being willing to be vilified, that AI regulation might be more dangerous than AI itself, and that an “American Wakanda” is possible – but only if America remembers how to build. In today's episode, we also discuss: • Why "it's not that great to be human" • Brian’s vision for 2035: merging with AI, exploring the galaxy, and the hive mind • Why Brian expects the future to be “more C-3PO than Terminator” • How to build the “American Wakanda” • Where moral values come from when you're not religious • The case for an AI government • Why Brian thinks Gary Gensler tanked crypto for a shot at Treasury Secretary References: • Ashton Kutcher [https://x.com/aplusk] • Ayn Rand [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ayn_Rand] • Balaji Srinivasan [https://x.com/balajis] • C-3PO [https://www.starwars.com/databank/c-3po] • Coinbase [https://www.coinbase.com/] • Cyrano de Bergerac [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyrano_de_Bergerac_(play)] • Donald Trump [https://x.com/realDonaldTrump] • Elizabeth Warren [https://x.com/ewarren] • Engines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology [https://www.amazon.com/Engines-Creation-K-Eric-Drexler/dp/0385199732] • Gary Gensler [https://www.sec.gov/about/sec-commissioners/gary-gensler] • Gattaca [https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0119177/] • George Soros [https://www.georgesoros.com/] • Joe Biden [https://x.com/JoeBiden] • K. Eric Drexler [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K._Eric_Drexler] • Maslow’s hierarchy of needs [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maslow%27s_hierarchy_of_needs] • Milton Friedman [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_Friedman] • NewLimit [https://www.newlimit.com/] • Peter Thiel [https://x.com/peterthiel] • Próspera [https://www.prospera.co/en] • Ray Kurzweil [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil] • Ryan Petersen [https://x.com/typesfast] • The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology [https://www.amazon.com/Singularity-Near-Humans-Transcend-Biology/dp/0143037889] • The Terminator [https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0088247/] • Vicarious [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vicarious_(company)] • Wakanda [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wakanda] • Zohran Mamdani [https://x.com/ZohranKMamdani] Where to find Brian: • Twitter/X [https://x.com/brian_armstrong] • LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/barmstrong/] Where to find Scott: • Twitter/X [https://x.com/fuelfive] • LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/dscottphoenix/] Where to find Fifty Years: • Website [https://fiftyyears.com/] • LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/fifty-years/] • Twitter/X [https://x.com/fiftyyears] • YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@fiftyyears] Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:32 Brian's vision for the world in 2035 05:33 How to explain this future to a 9-year-old 08:58 Why Brian isn’t buying the AI doom scenarios 10:07 Why merging with AI might be the only way to explore the galaxy 11:56 The Gattaca stack: embryo editing, APOE4, and the hive mind 15:06 Why centralized control leads to worse outcomes 16:03 The case for leaving AI unregulated 17:48 Building parallel institutions: AI, crypto, prediction markets 19:11 How to build the “American Wakanda” 25:16 Lessons from Chinese org structures 27:58 What an "AI government" might actually look like 29:36 Why building anything good in the world means being vilified 32:55 Where Brian's moral values actually came from 35:43 Why Brian thinks Gary Gensler tanked crypto for Treasury Secretary 38:40 Creating Ozempic for tribalism 39:19 The right dose of moral certainty 42:55 What people get wrong about tech founders 45:05 Conspiracy Corner: "It's not that great to be human" 46:00 Bio stack or compute stack: which do you bet on? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thisisprogress.substack.com [https://thisisprogress.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Reddit's CEO on why 'we're meant to die' and other things he's right about

Steve Huffman is the Co-founder and CEO of Reddit, a network of online communities that is now one of the internet's primary engines for conversation, culture, and collective knowledge. At 22, Steve left Reddit, came back in 2015 when the company was in crisis, then took it public. Today, Reddit has two billion monthly visitors and five quarters of real profitability. In this conversation, Steve outlines his unfashionable argument for a future where nothing really changes: that human nature, community, and mortality are constants the future won't (and shouldn't) override. In today's episode, we also discuss: • Steve's belief that it's a good thing we are destined to die and be forgotten • The reason Steve says please and thank you to ChatGPT • Why scientists will eventually have to apologize to the hippies • What Reddit's two billion monthly visitors reveal about human empathy • Why Steve believes his kids will have jobs, money will still exist, and the human need to create will outlast AGI • The single policy mistake behind housing, college debt, and healthcare • Why we still need the IRS • Why cities are the only organism that scales superlinearly, and what that means for Reddit • Why Steve is pro Universal Basic Income Referenced • Altered Carbon [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altered_Carbon] • American Medical Association (AMA) [https://www.ama-assn.org/] • Bill Gates [https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamhgates/] • ChatGPT [https://chatgpt.com/] • Craigslist [https://www.craigslist.org/] • Crestron [https://www.crestron.com/] • DeepMind [https://deepmind.google/] • DOGE [https://doge.gov/] • Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/] • Google [https://www.google.com/] • HomeKit [https://www.apple.com/home-app/] • IRS [https://www.irs.gov/] • iPhone [https://www.apple.com/iphone/] • Krista and Tatiana Hogan [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krista_and_Tatiana_Hogan] • Larry Page [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Page] • Lutron [https://www.lutron.com/] • Milton Friedman [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_Friedman] • Neuralink [https://neuralink.com/] • Reddit [https://www.reddit.com/] • The Tao of Physics [https://www.amazon.com/Tao-Physics-Exploration-Parallels-Modern/dp/1590308352] • Three Cups of Tea [https://www.amazon.com/Three-Cups-Tea-Mission-Promote/dp/0143038257] • Vicarious [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vicarious_(company)] Where to find Steve: • LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/shuffman56 [http://linkedin.com/in/shuffman56] Where to find Scott: • Twitter/X: https://x.com/fuelfive [https://x.com/fuelfive] • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dscottphoenix/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/dscottphoenix/] Where to find Fifty Years: • Website: https://fiftyyears.com/ [https://fiftyyears.com/] • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/fifty-years/ [https://www.linkedin.com/company/fifty-years/] • Twitter/X: https://x.com/fiftyyears [https://x.com/fiftyyears] • YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@fiftyyears [https://www.youtube.com/@fiftyyears] Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (01:30) Steve's weirdest idea: we should all die and be forgotten (04:37) Why scientists will end up apologizing to the hippies (05:35) Why Einstein sounds like a Buddhist monk (08:04) How Reddit made Steve more empathetic (09:23) What Facebook got right, and then abandoned (10:30) Why cities are the only organism that scales superlinearly (12:25) Diagnosing inefficient institutions (13:35) Why institutions should also die (17:07) The single policy mistake behind housing, college debt, and healthcare (18:21) Why America limits the number of doctors, and what Asia does instead (20:43) How fatherhood changed Steve's perspective (22:12) Will Steve's kids have jobs? (23:38) Why Steve is pro Universal Basic Income (27:23) Why Steve says please and thank you to ChatGPT (29:00) Vibe-coding a home automation bridge in two days (30:22) Why Scott felt bad about jailbreaking Claude This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thisisprogress.substack.com [https://thisisprogress.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Things you're not meant to say about NPC jobs, robot demos and AI Jesus

Ryan Petersen is the founder and CEO of Flexport, the technology-driven freight forwarder that ranks amongst the top companies exporting ocean freight. In this conversation, Ryan and Scott move through sprawling, but connected territory: including Ryan’s “great man theory” of history, what tariffs are actually doing to global supply chains, and why René Girard’s thinking on role models might hold the unexpected answer to AI alignment. In today's episode, we discuss: • Why Ryan thinks trends are regurgitations of “chauffeur knowledge” • Why America is struggling to follow Rotterdam’s lead in port automation • How prevalent customs fraud is and why it’s impacting 11% of US ocean trade • Why we should heed the historic lessons from the Silk Road and the Black Death plague in today’s interconnected world • What DHL’s billion-dollar IBM disaster teaches us about organizational resistance to tech • Why Ryan thinks the one-person AI company is a fundamentally pointless exercise • The overproduction of elites: how low-status jobs are becoming the best-paid • What Asian industrialization teaches America about exports Referenced • Amazon [https://www.amazon.com/] • Betty Crocker [https://www.bettycrocker.com/] • ChatGPT [https://chatgpt.com/] • Deloitte [https://www.deloitte.com/] • DHL [https://www.dhl.com/] • Flexport [https://www.flexport.com/] • Hyundai [https://www.hyundai.com/] • IBM [https://www.ibm.com/] • LBCT [https://www.lbct.com/] • Mike Rowe [https://mikerowe.com/] • Peter Thiel [https://www.linkedin.com/in/peterthiel/] • Ray Dalio [https://www.linkedin.com/in/raydalio/] • René Girard [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ren%C3%A9_Girard] • SAP [https://www.sap.com/] • Target [https://www.target.com/] • Toyota [https://www.toyota.com/] • YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/] Where to find Ryan: • Twitter/X [https://x.com/typesfast] • LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/rpetersen/] Where to find Scott: • LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/dscottphoenix/] • Twitter/X [https://x.com/fuelfive] Where to find Fifty Years: • Website [https://fiftyyears.com/] • LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/fifty-years/] • Twitter/X [https://x.com/fiftyyears] • YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@fiftyyears] Timestamps 01:36 Why Ryan favors the “great man theory” of history 02:43 How easily can humanoid robots replace a warehouse worker? 04:21 What Flexport’s shipping data reveals about relations with China 06:16 Is the White House considering “friend shoring” policies? 07:51 The customs fraud epidemic clouding US trade 09:37 Why Ryan thinks the “one-person company” is a dumb idea 10:48 Flexport laid off 75% of engineers and got faster 11:43 Why America is struggling to follow Rotterdam’s lead in port automation 15:52 The lessons from Betty Crocker cakes that underpin fake jobs 16:44 The reason DHL’s $1 billion project with IBM failed 18:27 Why Ryan thinks job displacement is the wrong thing to worry about 19:21 The inherent fragility of greater global interconnectedness 21:23 Are self-sustaining civilizations a realistic goal? 24:14 Navigating parenting in the age of screens 28:21 The surprising advantage China has over America 30:33 Have we entered the age of overproduction of elites? 32:54 The improbable lesson from Girard’s role model theory for the agentic era This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thisisprogress.substack.com [https://thisisprogress.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Why America Turned On Its Own Builders

Keller Cliffton is the co-founder and CEO of Zipline, the world's largest commercial autonomous delivery system. Before Zipline, Keller was a scientist at Harvard. Today, Zipline serves 5,000 hospitals worldwide, saves 10,000 lives per year, and has completed over 2 million drone deliveries — everything from food to medical supplies across Japan, five African countries, and multiple cities in the United States. In January 2026, Zipline raised a $600M round at a $7.6B valuation. The mission: put every person on the planet within 15–30 minutes of any product they need, no matter where they live. ---- In today's episode, we discuss: • A future where our children are 100x wealthier and live 100x longer • Why our grandkids will find the way we live now barbaric • Why food, housing, and healthcare may soon be basically free • Why "income inequality" is the wrong metric (and what we should measure instead) • Why Zipline had to launch in Africa before America • What Bill Gates and a Rwandan high school student have in common • Why Zipline hires teenagers over PhDs • How two landmark laws meant to protect people ended up doing the opposite • Why Hollywood may be the biggest threat to progress • What a 1950s gym class video tells us about the future of masculinity • Why Keller thinks 66% of countries will reject tech utopia (and why he's surprisingly okay with that) ---- References: • Alfred Lin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/linalfred/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/linalfred/] • Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/ [https://www.amazon.com/] • Bill Gates: https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamhgates/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamhgates/] • Dallas Buyers Club: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dallas_Buyers_Club [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dallas_Buyers_Club] • Delivering Happiness: https://www.amazon.com/Delivering-Happiness-Profits-Passion-Purpose/dp/0446576220 [https://www.amazon.com/Delivering-Happiness-Profits-Passion-Purpose/dp/0446576220] • Enron: https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/enron [https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/enron] • Gates Foundation: https://www.gatesfoundation.org/ [https://www.gatesfoundation.org/] • HBO: https://www.hbomax.com/ [https://www.hbomax.com/] • Link Exchange: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LinkExchange [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LinkExchange] • Michel Foucault: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michel_Foucault [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michel_Foucault] • Microsoft: https://www.microsoft.com/ [https://www.microsoft.com/] • NEPA: https://ceq.doe.gov/index.html [https://ceq.doe.gov/index.html] • Netflix: https://www.netflix.com/ [https://www.netflix.com/] • Sarbanes-Oxley: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarbanes%E2%80%93Oxley_Act [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarbanes%E2%80%93Oxley_Act] • The Three-Body Problem: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/0765382032 [https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/0765382032] • Walmart: https://www.walmart.com/ [https://www.walmart.com/] • Warren Buffett: https://x.com/WarrenBuffett [https://x.com/WarrenBuffett] • Zappos: https://www.zappos.com/ [https://www.zappos.com/] • Zipline: https://www.zipline.com/ [https://www.zipline.com/] ---- Where to find Keller: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kellerrc/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/kellerrc/] • Twitter/X: https://x.com/Keller [https://x.com/Keller] ---- Where to find Scott: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dscottphoenix/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/dscottphoenix/] • Twitter/X: https://x.com/fuelfive [https://x.com/fuelfive] ---- Where to find Fifty Years: • Website: https://fiftyyears.com/ [https://fiftyyears.com/] • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/fifty-years/ [https://www.linkedin.com/company/fifty-years/] • Twitter/X: https://x.com/fiftyyears [https://x.com/fiftyyears] • YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@fiftyyears [https://www.youtube.com/@fiftyyears] ---- Timestamps: (00:00) Progress in the mind of Keller Cliffton (01:36) Why food, housing, and healthcare may soon be basically free (02:42) A future where our children are 100x wealthier and live 100x longer (04:22) Why being rich in 1970 was worse than today (05:31) What Bill Gates and a Rwandan high school student have in common (06:53) Why "income inequality" is the wrong metric (08:00) Why 66% of countries will reject tech utopia (09:40) Why Zipline launched in Africa before America (10:36) How two landmark laws meant to protect people ended up doing the opposite (14:15) How the FDA accidentally killed 1 million people (15:39) Why every law needs an expiration date (16:37) Warren Buffett's two-minute deficit fix (18:07) Why Hollywood may be the biggest threat to progress (19:49) How postmodernism became America's most destructive idea (21:32) How Keller went from sleeping in his car to building Zipline (24:24) What a 1950s gym class video tells us about the future of masculinity (25:51) The alarming collapse in men's sperm counts (28:41) Fixing America's "autoimmune condition" (31:04) How to get in touch This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thisisprogress.substack.com [https://thisisprogress.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]