It All Happened Before
The Democratic Party is trying to figure out what will work — and the competing forces within it are doing so loudly. In Maine, an oyster farmer and Marine veteran named Graham Platner pushed a sitting Democratic governor out of the Senate primary. In Michigan, physician Abdul El-Sayed is running neck-and-neck with the party-preferred pick. In California, eight Democrats are splitting the field so thoroughly that two Republicans may take both top-two slots. Same frustration underneath: in fighting and vision contests. If you've watched Turkish politics for the last two decades, you've lived this frustration. Erdoğan's AKP has held power since 2002, in part because the main opposition — the CHP — kept losing with candidates its own base was lukewarm about. Voters showed up. They lost. They showed up again. In Episode 9, we talk with Dr. Aytuğ Şaşmaz [https://aytugsasmaz.com/], Assistant Professor of Political Science at Bryn Mawr College. Aytuğ's central concept is the valence deficit — the gap between a party's values and voters' belief that it can govern competently. The mechanism is internal: when parties lose cohesion, they nominate factional loyalists instead of capable candidates. We talk through what changed between the CHP's 2023 alliance loss and its 2024 historic win — 35 of 81 provinces, the AKP's first national defeat in two decades. And we sit with the harder part: six months later, the regime arrested İmamoğlu. Aytuğ reads the arrest not as a refutation of the strategy but as confirmation that it was working. Then we push on the comparison. Where does the CHP framework map onto the Democrats? Where does it break? We've been frustrated with the opposition party before. The question is what frustrated voters did with it — and how any of that travels. Subscribe to our Substack: itallhappenedbefore.substack.com [http://itallhappenedbefore.substack.com] Further reading: Aytuğ's piece in Medyascope [https://medyascope.tv/2023/07/02/aytug-sasmaz-yazdi-kilicdaroglunun-liderligi-chp-orgutunde-donusumu-nasil-etkiledi/] on how Kılıçdaroğlu's leadership transformed the CHP organization (in Turkish).
13 episodios
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