The Ryan Vet Show
The affordability math from the 1970s, 80s, and 90s is broken. Mike Schneider, founder of Acre Homes and longtime real estate operator, joins The Ryan Vet Show to walk through what actually happened to home ownership in America, and what comes next. Mike Schneider has spent the last decade and a half rebuilding the math of home ownership. He co-founded First in 2012, using machine learning and AI to predict who would sell their home, and sold that company. He is now the founder of Acre Homes, a shared appreciation model that lets people own without taking on a $670,000 mortgage. In this conversation with host Ryan Vet, two Durham millennials walk through how home ownership got this expensive, why blaming Wall Street is missing the real story, and what a generation of would-be buyers actually needs. The episode opens with the conversation that started this episode: Ryan spotted Mike walking down a Durham street wearing wired headphones. Two millennials, both Durham-based, both quietly recalibrating away from the trendy and back to the durable. That instinct, going analog, is showing up in housing too. Mike unpacks the three primary drivers of the affordability crisis (broken income-to-price math, delayed household formation, the disappearing starter home), the data on which generations are actually buying houses (Gen Z is outpacing millennials at age 28), and why the 50 or 60 year mortgage is a political move that does not solve the underlying problem. Then Mike walks through the shared ownership model. In the United Kingdom, Zillow's equivalent lets you filter for sale, for rent, or shared ownership. In the United States, that third option does not exist. Acre Homes is building it. Five percent down for fifty percent of the appreciation. No transaction costs on the front end. Lower total cost of ownership through what Mike calls the "Costco effect" of bundling debt, insurance, and operations across thousands of homes. Mike explains why two-thirds of Acre's customers are not first-time buyers (as expected) but previous homeowners who have lived the pain of buying and selling under the current model. The conversation closes on the data Mike thinks gets buried under the doom headlines. American home ownership is at 65 to 66 percent, higher than the 1980s. Eighty-three percent of Americans still prefer to own rather than rent (Lending Tree, October 2024). The country is between 1.5 and 5 million homes short on inventory. The American Dream is not dead. The math just needs new models. In this episode: * Why the housing affordability math from the 1970s, 80s, and 90s is broken (the income-to-price multiple has gone from 2x to 6x or higher) * The three primary drivers of the modern affordability crisis: broken math, delayed household formation, the disappearing starter home * Why Gen Z at age 28 is outpacing millennials in home ownership (38 percent vs 36.8 percent), and what that says about the great financial crisis effect * Why blaming Wall Street is missing the real story (institutional investors bought less than 1.6 percent of homes) * Why the 40, 50, and 60 year mortgage proposals are political moves, not solutions * How shared ownership works in the UK and why the United States is behind on the model * The Acre Homes model: 5 percent down, 50 percent of appreciation, no transaction costs on the front, lower total cost of ownership * Why two-thirds of Acre's customers are previous homeowners, not first-time buyers * The transaction costs nobody talks about: why you walk across the threshold of your new $500,000 home already underwater until it appreciates 6 to 8 percent * The starter home problem: why we have built bigger homes and where the entry point disappeared * The data buried under the doom headlines: 65 to 66 percent home ownership rate, 83 percent of Americans prefer to own (Lending Tree, October 2024) Referenced in this episode: * Acre Homes: acrehomes.com [https://www.acrehomes.com] * Aziz Sundirji, economist focused on housing and household formation * Charlie Munger's line: "The renter never washes the rental car" * David Ogilvy on marketing: "Comfort the afflicted or afflict the comfortable" * Abundance by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson * Lending Tree study, October 2024: 83 percent of Americans prefer to own over rent Connect with Mike Schneider: * Acre Homes: acrehomes.com [https://www.acrehomes.com] * LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/mikeschneider3 [https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikeschneider3] Connect with Ryan Vet: * Website: ryanvet.com [https://ryanvet.com] * COLLIDE Newsletter: ryanvet.com/collide [https://ryanvet.com/collide] * LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/ryanvet [https://linkedin.com/in/ryanvet] * Instagram: instagram.com/ryancvet [https://instagram.com/ryancvet] * Book Ryan as a Keynote Speaker: ryanvet.com/generational-speaker [https://ryanvet.com/generational-speaker] Subscribe to The Ryan Vet Show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and wherever you get your podcasts. The guest era continues every Monday at 6am ET. Next week: Kevin Stinehart, the elementary school teacher and play advocate featured in chapter 11 of Jonathan Haidt's The Anxious Generation, on rebuilding play and recess inside the modern school system. The COLLIDE essay podcast continues every Thursday at 7am ET. Send us Fan Mail [https://www.buzzsprout.com/2557074/fan_mail/new] ABOUT RYAN VET Ryan Vet [https://ryanvet.com/?ref=podcast] is a USA TODAY bestselling author, futurist [https://ryanvet.com/futurist/], and international keynote speaker whose insights on generations, culture, and the future of work have been featured in Forbes, Financial Times, ABC, NBC, and CBS. His research helps leaders understand emerging generational patterns and anticipate societal shifts before they fully unfold. JOIN 20,000+ LEADERS FOR WEEKLY INSIGHTS If you want deeper research and behind-the-scenes insights on generations and the future of culture and society, join Ryan’s weekly newsletter: 👉 https://ryanvet.com/collide
29 afleveringen
Reacties
0Wees de eerste die een reactie plaatst
Meld je nu aan en word lid van de The Ryan Vet Show community!