Traders Are Getting Locked Out Of The AI Rally

Is The AI Pullback Just Starting? | Real Simple Ariel Joins

Markets are finally showing selling pressure — and this time, the biggest AI leaders are taking the hit.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro are joined by Ariel Hernandez, known on X as Real Simple Ariel, for a deep discussion on AI stocks, momentum trading, market rotation, short setups, overextended leaders, and why traders need to know where they are wrong before entering a position.The group breaks down whether the AI trade is simply pulling back… or whether this is the first real warning sign that the hottest part of the market is getting crowded.They also discuss NBIS, Micron, ARM, SanDisk, Rocket Lab, software rotation, energy breakouts, IPO froth, SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, and why the market may be entering a much more fragile phase.Key themes covered:AI stock pullbackMomentum leaders getting extendedWhy trimming into strength mattersHow traders know when to slow downThe danger of buying every dipShorting weak stocks in a strong marketWhether AI is still early — or already priced inThe coming mega IPO waveWhy price action matters more than opinionsKey Timestamps00:00 — AI stocks finally face selling pressure01:26 — Ariel breaks down the historic semiconductor run03:10 — Why strong leaders still need consolidation04:24 — Energy stocks break out while tech pulls back05:18 — The danger of buying every AI dip06:04 — Ariel’s “moving train” trading analogy07:35 — Jason questions where the uptrend breaks09:00 — Why new highs before the market matter10:43 — Jason: momentum works… until the bull market ends12:24 — Ariel explains when his own trades tell him to slow down13:57 — Jason praises listening to the market, not opinions16:19 — Ariel’s two favorite short-selling setups18:48 — Why short trades are usually quick tactical moves21:02 — Cybersecurity finally starts catching a bid22:47 — Bitcoin bros, positioning, and crowd psychology25:48 — “Do you want to be right or make money?”30:56 — Why every trade needs an exit before entry38:14 — How Ariel trims overextended leaders53:17 — Is AI still early, or already priced in?1:22:11 — The mega IPO warning: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic

Don’t Miss the Monster Stock Moves

Saturday May 16th Workshop Register Here: www.marketsunscripted.comEveryone is screaming “AI bubble”… but what if they are looking at the wrong thing?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down the red-hot AI rally, why Corning’s move may be more than just hype, and why the comparison to 1999 may be dangerously misleading.Matt walks through why some stocks can actually become more attractive as they rise, while Jason explains why his contrarian process is not flashing the usual warning signs yet. They also discuss positioning, sentiment, passive investing, the next layer of AI infrastructure, and how traders should recover if they missed the move.Plus, Matt and Jason talk about the upcoming Markets Unscripted live workshop and the mindset needed to survive one of the fastest markets we have seen in years.Key Timestamps:00:00 — Is this an AI bubble… or just getting started?00:52 — Corning explodes higher on Nvidia news04:58 — Jason explains why he is taking the AI bull case seriously09:13 — Are AI valuations actually crazy?13:52 — Matt explains how to recognize a rare market environment16:12 — Jason says the dangerous words: “It’s different this time”20:20 — Why being underexposed to AI may feel like being short25:36 — Matt compares today’s rally to the dot-com era30:57 — Jason’s warning from surviving the 1999 bubble49:08 — What to do if you missed the AI move

Google Put AI Bears on Notice — This Isn’t a Bubble

Register for the upcoming workshop on May 16, 2026: www.marketsunscripted.comIs AI really in a bubble — or are traders making the same mistake they’ve made in every major bull market?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why the latest Google earnings report may be a major turning point for the AI trade. Matt explains why improving AI monetization, accelerating usage, stronger cloud demand, and better unit economics could crush one of the biggest bearish arguments against AI.Jason pushes back on the bubble narrative and explains why so many traders calling this a “bubble” may actually be a sign the move is not as crowded as people think. The discussion also covers why shorting strength can be so dangerous, what traders can learn from the Big Short, the dot-com bubble, Apple, Nvidia, semiconductors, software, and why the best opportunities often look scary before they become obvious.Plus, Matt and Jason discuss the upcoming Markets Unscripted Live Workshop with live Q&A, where they’ll go deeper into the process, tools, and frameworks behind how they analyze markets in real time.TIMESTAMPS00:00 — Market races higher despite oil and Middle East tensions01:20 — Why Google earnings may be a game changer for AI02:30 — Google’s AI monetization, Gemini growth, and cloud demand05:00 — Matt: the AI bubble argument may be falling apart06:12 — Jason: “A bubble is a bull market I’m not long”09:20 — Why the tape keeps rejecting bad news10:37 — The danger of trying to catch the next “Big Short”16:25 — What positioning data says about Nasdaq traders19:30 — The AI bear case is shifting25:30 — Why underweight managers may be “short by performance”28:58 — Jason: fading price is one of the biggest mistakes traders make32:31 — Matt on why true market leaders take time to play out37:03 — Ride winners, cut losers50:30 — Semiconductors, software, and the AI rotation trade51:45 — How to track semis vs. software with SMH/IGV55:24 — Nvidia, competition, and the next layer of AI winners57:30 — Markets Unscripted live workshop announcement

Traders Are Getting Locked Out Of The AI Rally

Upcoming Workshop: May 16, 2025Register here: https://www.marketsunscripted.com/ The AI trade is heating up again, and Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why this may still be the dominant force driving the bull market higher. They discuss why every major bull market usually has one leading theme, how traders psychologically lock themselves out of big winners, and why the AI move may still have much further to go before the real “bubble” phase even begins.Jason also shares lessons from past bubbles, including Hong Kong in the 1990s and the dot-com boom, while Matt explains why the next phase of AI could come from real-world adoption, earnings season volatility, and new leadership stocks.If you are trying to understand whether this AI rally is still buyable, too extended, or turning into something much bigger, this episode is a must-watch.Key Timestamps00:00 — Every bull market has one leading theme01:45 — Why AI is the only trade that matters right now07:49 — The trap of thinking stocks are either “too risky” or “too extended”11:26 — Is AI already a bubble, or is it still early?12:26 — Jason’s brutal lessons from past market bubbles20:22 — What real bubbles actually feel like28:02 — How COT data helped catch past market tops31:44 — Why earnings season could be the next major test40:08 — Why the war and macro fears may not stop the AI trend47:41 — Matt’s view on exposure, hedging, and waiting for new setups49:43 — “If it’s a bull market, don’t lose your lips”53:07 — Why this may be the exact environment for William O’Neil-style trading

Bears Keep Fighting This Market Rally!

The market keeps ripping higher, and a lot of investors are getting left behind trying to make sense of it.In this episode, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down the speed of the rebound, why this rally feels so unusual, and what history might be telling us right now. Matt compares today’s move to the powerful rallies of the 1990s, explains why shorting strength can be dangerous, and looks at whether this is a true lockout rally or just a catch-up move after extreme downside pressure.If you’ve been wondering whether this market has gone too far too fast, this episode will make you think twice.Key Timestamps0:00 Markets are racing higher in a powerful lockout rally0:30 Why the speed of this rebound has shocked so many investors0:52 Matt studies past market precedents, including 1995–19961:18 Is this rally extreme… or just a catch-up move after heavy pressure?1:38 The 1996 comparison: 24 up days in 29 sessions2:08 Jason weighs in on whether this rally can keep goingSubscribe for more weekly market breakdowns with Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro.