Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

Where is the effect of the tariffs? Where is the effect from "Most Favored Nation?" What is going on with this month's CPI report? The Inflation Guy addresses these questions, and more. And on top of that, apologizes! It's a don't-miss episode!   NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-may-2025/ [https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-may-2025/] ) Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/ [https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/] Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/05/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-april-2025/ [https://inflationguy.blog/2025/05/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-april-2025/] ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ [https://inflationguy.blog/shop/]    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ [https://inflationguy.blog/] Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ [https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/] Check out the other website! https://usdicoin.com/ [https://usdicoin.com/]

Sure, there's no question that screaming about how tariffs are higher than they've been since the Great Depression, or that shelves are going to be empty of product by June, or how "I won't be able to buy my son the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip", attracts more listeners. But the reality is that the whole tariff hullabaloo is likely overwrought. Certainly, even though tariffs on Canada and Mexico were in place for some time prior to "Liberation Day," we have yet to see any meaningful effect in prices. That isn't to say that it won't happen, only that it hasn't yet. But that doesn't mean there aren't really exciting things happening in the CPI. To hear about the backdrop, and what he's seeing in the numbers, tune in to this episode of the Inflation Guy Podcast! NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/05/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-april-2025/ [https://inflationguy.blog/2025/05/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-april-2025/] ) Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/ [https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/] Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/04/10/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-march-2025/ [https://inflationguy.blog/2025/04/10/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-march-2025/] ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ [https://inflationguy.blog/shop/]    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ [https://inflationguy.blog/] Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ [https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/] Check out the other website! https://usdicoin.com/ [https://usdicoin.com/]

For a while, we are going to be returning periodically to the question of how the economy, markets, and inflation respond to economic policy volatility. In this episode, the Inflation Guy talks about some mildly disturbing signs that manufacturing leadership may not be as adaptable as it once was, and as he had previously assumed. And that's all bad news, both from an economic fragility standpoint (it could mean the garden-variety recession the Inflation Guy has been talking about will be something more like a Hanging Gardens of Babylon-variety recession) and from an inflationary standpoint (fragility on the supply side makes upward thrusts in inflation more normal). Hopefully, his prior assumptions were right and these concerns are misplaced...but they should be considered. NOTES “Mass layoffs in trucking and retail coming – Apollo” https://www.freightwaves.com/news/mass-layoffs-in-trucking-and-retail-are-coming-apollo [https://www.freightwaves.com/news/mass-layoffs-in-trucking-and-retail-are-coming-apollo] Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (April) https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2025/2504 [https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2025/2504] Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/ [https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/] Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2025)” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-139-this-months-cpi-report-%e2%80%93-uncertainty-reigns/ [https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-139-this-months-cpi-report-%E2%80%93-uncertainty-reigns/] ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ [https://inflationguy.blog/shop/]    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ [https://inflationguy.blog/] Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ [https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/] Check out the other website! https://usdicoin.com/ [https://usdicoin.com/]

Today's podcast is a very important one. Coming 298 days after episode 113 (this may be a future trivia answer, but probably not), in this episode the Inflation Guy announces the launch of a project of great importance and significance to those who worry about inflation and are concerned about defending their money. Please read the important disclaimer below. NOTES USDi Partners website: https://usdicoin.com/ [https://usdicoin.com/] Press Release Noting Launch of USDi Coin: https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1EJFkc0juTxU2mBEpB4qa6aKIuOUhF_GE [https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1EJFkc0juTxU2mBEpB4qa6aKIuOUhF_GE] Michael C. Lovell and Robert C. Vogel, “A CPI-Futures Market” (1973) https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/260096?journalCode=jpe [https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/260096?journalCode=jpe] Milton Friedman, “Financial Futures Markets and Tabular Standards” (1984) https://www.jstor.org/stable/1830554 [https://www.jstor.org/stable/1830554] William W. Jennings, “Disaggregated TIPS: the case for disaggregating inflation-linked bonds into bonds linked to narrower CPI components Slicing and Dicing TIPS” (2006) https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747206002551 [https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747206002551] Ep. 18: Cash is an Option Whose Cost is Inflation https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-18-cash-is-an-option-whose-cost-is-inflation/ [https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-18-cash-is-an-option-whose-cost-is-inflation/] Ep. 32: The Remarkable Story of Inflation Futures https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-32-the-remarkable-story-of-inflation-futures/ [https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-32-the-remarkable-story-of-inflation-futures/] Ep. 56: A New Way to Trade Inflation https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-56-a-new-way-to-trade-inflation/ [https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-56-a-new-way-to-trade-inflation/] Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon? https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-98-will-you-be-able-to-trade-medical-care-inflation-soon/ Ep. 102: Gold and Crypto - Are Either, or Both, Real? https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-102-gold-and-crypto-are-either-or-both-real/ [https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-102-gold-and-crypto-are-either-or-both-real/] Ep. 113: Real-World Crypto Escapades, Concerns, Threats, and Promises https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-113-real-world-crypto-escapades-concerns-threats-and-promises/ [https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-113-real-world-crypto-escapades-concerns-threats-and-promises/] Blog callback: “A Price-Linked USD” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/28/a-price-linked-usd/ [https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/28/a-price-linked-usd/] Blog callback: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ [https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/] Important Disclaimer: The USDi Coin is offered only to accredited investors. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results or the actual performance of the instrument described herein may differ materially from those discussed here. This information is as of the date indicated, is not complete nor has it been audited, and does not contain certain material information about the products to be offered, including important disclosures and risk factors associated with an investment. Neither Enduring Investments, USDi Partners, nor their principals, employees, agents or authorized representatives, makes any warranty or representation, whether express or implied, or assumes any legal liability for the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of any information disclosed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2025)” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-139-this-months-cpi-report-%e2%80%93-uncertainty-reigns/ [https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-139-this-months-cpi-report-%E2%80%93-uncertainty-reigns/] ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ [https://inflationguy.blog/shop/]    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ [https://inflationguy.blog/] Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ [https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/]

Welcome to CPI Day - this one, in the midst of a head-spinning market turmoil. This moves the CPI report back a little bit in terms of its importance, but the underlying inflation pressures and the effect on prices of tariffs, going forward, are a big part of the reason for the market turmoil. Uncertainty implies lower prices for risky assets, and we are seeing that. It also has implications for inflation itself, through velocity, and for the hurdle to make policy moves as a central banker. Join the Inflation Guy as he untangles today's CPI report, and a lot of the surrounding noise.   NOTES Episode callback: “Ep. 137: Drug Prices and the Most-Favored-Nation Clause” https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-137-drug-prices-and-the-most-favored-nation-clause/ [https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-137-drug-prices-and-the-most-favored-nation-clause/] Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ [https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/] ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ [https://inflationguy.blog/shop/]    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ [https://inflationguy.blog/] Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ [https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/]