Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

It's time for the monthly CPI report! While the core CPI was another (small) downward surprise, the Inflation Guy in this podcast explains why the internals of the number (and the optics going forward, see Ep. 145) are actually not very good and that there is not at the moment any clear path to get to the Fed's 2% inflation goal. He discusses the policy implications of that - along with the effect of tariffs and of 'mass' deportations.    NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/07/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-june-2025/ [https://inflationguy.blog/2025/07/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-june-2025/] ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ [https://inflationguy.blog/shop/]    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ [https://inflationguy.blog/] Interested in becoming a customer of Inflation Guy? https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ [https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/] Check out the latest and greatest cryptocurrency – stable in real space! https://usdicoin.com/ [https://usdicoin.com/]

The Inflation Guy does not typically do a CPI preview episode, and this isn't one either. However, he felt it was important to telegraph to investors who aren't actually inflation traders that there are some non-tariff reasons that the CPI is about to re-accelerate for at least the balance of the year. Even though this is known (and priced into inflation swaps), there's every chance that when it happens it will surprise some people and others will attribute to tariffs what should be attributed to simple mathematics. This is a brief but important episode to set expectations for the coming few months.   NOTES Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-may-2025/ [https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-may-2025/] ) Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/ [https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/] To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ [https://inflationguy.blog/shop/]    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ [https://inflationguy.blog/] Interested in becoming a customer of Inflation Guy? https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ [https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/] Check out the latest and greatest cryptocurrency – stable in real space! https://usdicoin.com/ [https://usdicoin.com/]

If this keeps up, we might all long to have the machines take over. In this episode, the Inflation Guy discusses the victory of a socialist candidate in the New York City mayoral primary this week - and, even if we would like to hope that he has no chance of winning in the general election...he does. Ergo, we should probably think a little bit about what socialism means for inflation.  Really, nothing about socialism is great. And that includes inflation. NOTES Monetarium website on Reserve.org: https://reserve.org/monetarium/ [https://reserve.org/monetarium/] “Shortages are Unmeasured Inflation” blog post: https://inflationguy.blog/2021/10/24/shortages-are-unmeasured-inflation/ [https://inflationguy.blog/2021/10/24/shortages-are-unmeasured-inflation/] Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-may-2025/ [https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-may-2025/] ) Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/ [https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/] Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/05/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-april-2025/ [https://inflationguy.blog/2025/05/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-april-2025/] ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ [https://inflationguy.blog/shop/]    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ [https://inflationguy.blog/] Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ [https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/] Check out the other website! https://usdicoin.com/ [https://usdicoin.com/]

Where is the effect of the tariffs? Where is the effect from "Most Favored Nation?" What is going on with this month's CPI report? The Inflation Guy addresses these questions, and more. And on top of that, apologizes! It's a don't-miss episode!   NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-may-2025/ [https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-may-2025/] ) Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/ [https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/] Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/05/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-april-2025/ [https://inflationguy.blog/2025/05/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-april-2025/] ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ [https://inflationguy.blog/shop/]    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ [https://inflationguy.blog/] Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ [https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/] Check out the other website! https://usdicoin.com/ [https://usdicoin.com/]

Sure, there's no question that screaming about how tariffs are higher than they've been since the Great Depression, or that shelves are going to be empty of product by June, or how "I won't be able to buy my son the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip", attracts more listeners. But the reality is that the whole tariff hullabaloo is likely overwrought. Certainly, even though tariffs on Canada and Mexico were in place for some time prior to "Liberation Day," we have yet to see any meaningful effect in prices. That isn't to say that it won't happen, only that it hasn't yet. But that doesn't mean there aren't really exciting things happening in the CPI. To hear about the backdrop, and what he's seeing in the numbers, tune in to this episode of the Inflation Guy Podcast! NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/05/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-april-2025/ [https://inflationguy.blog/2025/05/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-april-2025/] ) Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/ [https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/] Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/04/10/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-march-2025/ [https://inflationguy.blog/2025/04/10/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-march-2025/] ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ [https://inflationguy.blog/shop/]    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ [https://inflationguy.blog/] Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ [https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/] Check out the other website! https://usdicoin.com/ [https://usdicoin.com/]