Iran Halts Talks: Crude at the Crossroads

Weekly Recap: Week 26 Complete

Friday, June 26, 2026. WEEK 26 COMPLETE. Twenty-six weeks running. The thesis delivers again. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Monday opened $74.82 (deal live, Hormuz open, geopolitical premium intact). Tuesday technicals showed broad range $73-$78 zone, short bias below $73.91. Wednesday EIA inventory report crude fell 8.3M barrels week ending Jun 12 (10th consecutive draw, multi-decade lows). Thursday crude broke $70 (fade trade complete, mean reversion delivered). Friday closed $70.54. WEEKLY SUMMARY: Week-start $74.82, week-end $70.54, weekly change -$4.28 (-5.72%). Weekly high $78.96 (Mon), weekly low $68.91 (Thu). Largest daily drop -3.92% Wed (close $70.34). Daily closes Mon $74.82, Tue $73.21, Wed $70.34, Thu $71.52, Fri $70.54. Pattern seventh lower low in recent sessions. Key drivers easing supply disruption fears from Strait of Hormuz reopening, EIA revised 2026 global demand forecast lower (-1.1M bpd). Context well below 2026 peaks above $100/bbl earlier in year. NATURAL GAS RECAP: EIA Weekly Storage Report released Jun 25 for week ending Jun 19: Working gas 2,835 Bcf. Net change +76 Bcf injection. Year-ago 49 Bcf below. 5-year average 152 Bcf above. HENRY HUB SPOT PRICES: Jun 5 $3.03/MMBtu, Jun 12 $3.16/MMBtu, Jun 19 $3.12/MMBtu, Jun 22 $3.16/MMBtu. HENRY HUB FUTURES: August contract ~$3.282-$3.288. Nearby contracts low-to-mid $3.10s-$3.20s range. Some daily closes $3.15-$3.23. EIA PROJECTIONS: Henry Hub averages ~$3.30-$4.00/MMBtu for parts of 2026. WEEK 26 SUMMARY: Deal live. Hormuz shipping normalizing. Crude fade trade complete, mean reversion delivered, broke $70, support at $67.93. Gas storage building, injections strong, accumulation intact, $3.05-$3.15 prime entry, target $4.00+. Geopolitical premium gone. WEEK 27 PREVIEW: Watch further Hormuz normalization. Technical talks resume Geneva. Crude support at $67.93. Gas accumulation continues. BOTTOM LINE: Twenty-six weeks. Every thesis confirmed. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Crude Breaks $70

Thursday, June 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading $69.20-$69.36 (down 1.4-1.7% from prior close ~$70.34). Daily range ~$69.01-$70.23. August 2026 contract ~$69.66. Recent performance down ~26% past month, still up ~6% YTD. PRIMARY DRIVER: Easing supply concerns as Strait of Hormuz shipping returns to normal, increasing crude flows, pressuring prices lower. Brent crude low-to-mid $72s (multi-month lows). Near-term levels four-to-five month lows, continued downward pressure. VOLATILITY NOTE: Significant retreat from 2026 highs tied to geopolitical supply risks. Markets pricing in improved supply availability. SETUP: Crude broken below $70. Support at $67.93. Below that $65.15. Resistance at $71.84. Above that $73.91. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Most recent EIA report released Jun 18 for week ending Jun 12: Total working gas 2,759 Bcf. Weekly net change +73 Bcf injection. Year-ago (Jun 12, 2025) 2,788 Bcf (down 29 Bcf or -1.0%). 5-year average (2021-2025) 2,608 Bcf (up 151 Bcf or +5.8%). Within 5-year historical range. REGIONAL INJECTIONS: East +18, Midwest +28, Mountain +4, Pacific +5, South Central +16 Bcf. NEXT REPORT: Jun 25 at 10:30 AM ET for week ending Jun 19. Analyst forecasts ~68 Bcf injection. Prior week 73 Bcf below some expectations (80-82 Bcf), contributing to upward pressure on natural gas prices. DEAL STATUS: MOU signed ~Jun 15-17. Formal signing Jun 19, Switzerland. 60-day negotiation window for broader deal. KEY ELEMENTS: Iran diluting highly enriched uranium stockpiles. UN nuclear inspectors returning. Strait of Hormuz reopened to maritime traffic, no tolls. Sanctions relief, possible frozen assets release ($25-300B incentives/reconstruction). Working groups on oversight, sanctions, nuclear matters. STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHIPPING: Previously near zero daily transits during conflict. Partial reopening under MOU with fluctuating but generally increasing traffic. Projections rise toward 40-50% pre-war levels (~40 transits/day vs ~100 pre-war) within 30 days if stable. Recent stalls only 12 ships one Sunday amid closure announcements, traffic picked up since. Iranian, Omani, international routes in use. NEGOTIATIONS: Technical talks set to resume Geneva following week. US officials (Secretary of State Marco Rubio) warning talks could halt if Iran seeks tolls. Regional players (Qatar, Saudi Arabia) discussing security implications. BOTTOM LINE: Crude broken below $70. Support at $67.93. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. Gas storage building. Injections strong. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. Deal live. Hormuz shipping normalizing. Geopolitical premium gone. Trade the data, not the headlines.

EIA Inventory Report: Draws Continue

Wednesday, June 24, 2026. EIA CRUDE OIL INVENTORY REPORT RELEASED TODAY. Week ending June 19. Released June 24 at 10:30 AM ET. MOST RECENT DATA: EIA report released Jun 17 for week ending Jun 12: Commercial crude fell 8.3M barrels to 418.2M barrels (6% below 5-year average). 10th consecutive weekly draw. Total crude incl. SPR at multi-decade lows. Refinery crude inputs 17.2M bpd (+230K b/d WoW). Refinery utilization 96.7% operable capacity. Cushing stocks down 1.6M barrels. Gasoline stocks down 0.9M barrels. Distillate stocks up 1.0M barrels. API DATA: Week ending Jun 19, released Jun 23: Crude fell 0.77M barrels (much smaller than prior week's 8.33M). Significant slowdown in draw rate. MARKET EXPECTATIONS: EIA report for week ending Jun 19 market expects ~-5.1M barrel draw. MARKET CONTEXT: Brent averaging ~$105/bbl Jun-Jul (elevated). WTI following similar dynamics. Tight supply environment. Geopolitical supply disruptions Iran-related, Strait of Hormuz. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Most recent EIA report released Jun 18 for week ending Jun 12: Total stocks 2,759 Bcf. Net change +73 Bcf injection. Year-ago 29 Bcf lower (-1.0%) vs Jun 12, 2025 (2,788 Bcf). 5-year average 151 Bcf higher (+5.8%) vs 2021-2025 avg (2,608 Bcf). Within 5-year historical range. REGIONAL STOCKS: East 532, Midwest 638, Mountain 226, Pacific 309, South Central 1,053 Bcf. REGIONAL INJECTIONS: East +18, Midwest +28, Mountain +4, Pacific +5, South Central +16 Bcf. SETUP: 73 Bcf build matches 5-year average for same week, below last year's 97 Bcf. Henry Hub spot ~$3.19-$3.32/MMBtu. NEXT STORAGE REPORT: Jun 25 for week ending Jun 19. STRATEGIC POSITIONING: Crude inventory draws supporting lower prices. Tight supply but geopolitical premium fading. Short any bounces above $78. Target $70-$72. Gas storage building. Injections strong. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. BOTTOM LINE: Crude fade trade complete. Geopolitical premium gone. Inventory draws supporting lower prices. Gas storage ample. Injections strong. Accumulation thesis intact. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Technicals: Week 26

Tuesday, June 23, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading $73.85-$74.21. KEY SUPPORT: Immediate $73.91; Below: $71.84, $69.92, $67.93, $65.15, $63.30, $61.23, $58.95, $56.53, $54.82. KEY RESISTANCE: Immediate $76.02; Above: $78.42, $80.53, $82.67, $85.09, $87.30, $89.72, $92.50, $94.99, $97.41. TRADING BIAS: Short bias below $73.91 (target lower supports, stop above ~$74.83); Long bias above $76.02 (target higher resistances, same stop). SETUP: Broad $73-$78 zone for immediate support/resistance. June 2026 range $71.73-$106.74. INVENTORY DATA: API (released Jun 16, week ending Jun 12) commercial crude fell 8.33M barrels (exceeded expectations -4.5M). EIA (released Jun 17, week ending Jun 12) commercial crude declined 8.263M barrels to 418.2M barrels (larger than forecast -3.6M to -4.6M). Total crude incl. SPR fell 17.2M barrels to 758.5M barrels (lows not seen since mid-1980s). Cushing stocks dropped 1.606M barrels to 20.03M (near multi-year lows). Context multi-week draw trend, refinery runs up, net imports down. NEXT REPORTS: API Jun 23 (Tue), EIA Jun 24 (Wed) for week ending Jun 19. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub trading ~$3.263 (day's range $3.256-$3.272). RSI 14 43.501 sell signal (below 50, weakening momentum but not oversold). MACD 12,26 -0.003 sell signal (negative, below signal line). CLASSIC PIVOT POINTS: Pivot 3.266, S1 3.262, R1 3.270. MOVING AVERAGES: MA5 3.264 buy signal (price near/slightly above); MA20 3.298 sell signal (price below); MA50 3.268 sell signal (price below); MA200 3.179 buy signal (price well above). OVERALL: Strong Sell (moving averages sell, technical indicators strong sell). THE READ: Crude broad range $73-$78 zone. Short bias below $73.91. Long bias above $76.02. Inventory draws supporting lower prices. Gas weak technicals. RSI neutral. MACD negative. Moving averages bearish. Accumulation zone intact but technicals need reset. Trade the charts. Respect the levels.

Deal Live, Hormuz Open

Monday, June 22, 2026. WEEK 26 OPENS. The deal is done. The Strait of Hormuz is open. Crude is at $75.60-$75.70. CRUDE OIL: WTI July futures trading $75.60-$75.70 (Jun 22), down 2.1-2.2% from prior session. Recent closes: Jun 21 $75.67, Jun 18 $76.60, Jun 17 $76.79, Jun 16 $76.05, Jun 15 $80.75, Jun 12 $84.88, Jun 11 $87.71. Month-to-date down 19%. YTD up 10%. SETUP: Prices snapping lower after earlier volatility. Stronger dollar headwind. Prediction markets trading near $76 with potential upside targets around $80. DEAL IS LIVE: MOU signed remotely ~Jun 17. Trump signed hard copy Jun 17-18 at Versailles. Formal signing Jun 19, Switzerland. 60-day negotiation period initiated. STRAIT OF HORMUZ REOPENED: Commercial shipping toll-free 60 days. US naval blockade lifted. Iran established Persian Gulf Strait Administration for vessel clearance, no fees during 60-day period. SHIPPING SURGE: Ship crossings spiked 25 commercial vessels Jun 18 (highest since mid-April). Oil tankers Saudi-flagged super tankers carrying millions of barrels moved through. De-confliction line set up between parties for safe passage. CONCERNS: De-mining waterway ongoing. Regional frictions Lebanon ceasefire issues. Some contradictory reports Iran closure threats. Trump reference possible US tolls if final deal not reached in 60 days. IMPLICATION: Supply flowing. Geopolitical premium gone. Crude at $75 new reality. STRATEGIC POSITIONING: Short any bounces above $78. Target $70-$72. If crude breaks below $70, next target $65. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. NATURAL GAS: Most recent EIA report (released Jun 18, covers week ending Jun 12): Total working gas 2,759 Bcf. Net change +73 Bcf injection. YTY 29 Bcf below same week last year. 5-year average 151 Bcf above average 2,608 Bcf. Prior week (ending Jun 5) +108 Bcf injection to 2,686 Bcf. Build slightly below expectations (consensus ~75-82 Bcf). Inventories within 5-year historical range. Henry Hub trading near $3.15-$3.20/MMBtu. NEXT STORAGE REPORT: Jun 25 (week ending Jun 19). SETUP: Storage ample. Injections strong. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. BOTTOM LINE: Crude—fade trade complete. $75 new reality. Short any bounces above $78. Target $70-$72. Gas—accumulation thesis intact. Storage ample. Accumulate $3.05-$3.15. Target $4.00+. Week 26 opens with supply flowing and geopolitical premium gone. Trade the data, not the headlines.