Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, returns to Money Life today as the firm introduces the RSM [https://rsmus.com] US Recession Monitor [https://realeconomy.rsmus.com] — a comprehensive scorecard relying on more than 20 indicators to track the health of the economy — which is showing a 55 percent chance of recession, a danger level that Brusuelas says will go higher if current tariff and trade policies continue as announced. While he is optimistic about potential rollbacks in those policies, Brusuelas says the current conditions would be considered recessionary regardless of the party in power in Washington, but are exacerbated more by policy than they have been during times of recession triggers like an oil price shock.Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, brings a Pimco actively managed multi-sector bond fund back as the ETF of the Week, noting that the fund is a strong diversifier and can goose yields now, at a time when investors are looking for safe havens but might want bond managers to manage into the rapidly changing market conditions. Plus, more from the archives with investment legend Jack Bogle [https://johncbogle.com] — who founded Vanguard 50 years ago today and who appeared on the show a decade ago talking about the firm's 40th anniversary; today's excerpts, culled from three different appearances on the show, include comments from 2016 on the first Trump Administration that stand up particularly well against the test of time.

Money Life celebrates it's 13th anniversary by looking at the past, the present and the eternal, digging into the archives for excerpts from a 2018 conversation with Jack Bogle that remains completely relevant — and perhaps moreso — despite the passage of time. Bogle — the founder of The Vanguard Group [https://vanguard.com] — who popularized index investing and was routinely called "Saint Jack" in the investing world, talks about how he invested and built his personal portfolio, saying that he favored the simple and domestic over the complicated and worldwide, but also talks about the evolution of ETFs, changes to the way people perceive indexing and more. With the show now in its 13th year, Chuck also gives a little 'bar mitzvah speech,' discussing the lessons he says are most important and prevalent from 13 years, over 3,250 shows and more than 10,000 interviews. Plus Nancy Prial, co-chief executive office and senior portfolio manager at Essex Investment Management [https://essexinvest.com] talks small-cap investing in the Market Call.

Steve Rick, chief economist at TruStage [https://trustage.com], says that he has lowered his forecast for economic growth to 0.5 percent, while raising his forecast for inflation to 3.5 percent; that combination means stagflation, and it's starting to happen now and could turn into recession if the growth slowdown is worse than expected. Rick notes that "No one wins trade wars" and notes that if the current situation plays out into one, that trade problems triggering huge downturns would seem to be a classic 100-year event. While he says the damage can be averted if economic policy changes are softened or mitigated, Rick says he worries that the impacts of current events could last as long or longer than the economic impacts of Covid. Howard Silverblatt [https://indexologyblog.com/author/howard_silverblatt/], senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices [https://spglobal.com], discusses the unprecedented action in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on April 17, when United Healthcare dropped 22 percent and, by itself, caused a big drop in the benchmark. He analyzes what that means for the Dow as a benchmark, but also talks index construction — and how investors should consider benchmarks — in light of the rapid growth of the Mag 7 stocks relative to the rest of the market. Plus Chuck answers a listener's question about how to sell some gold coins they received as an inheritance.

Everett Millman, precious metals specialist at Gainesville Coins [https://Gainesvillecoins.com], says that while gold took a big stumble last week, he doesn't believe the strong rally to start the year is over. Further, with gold trading near record highs but oil trading in the range of $70 a barrel, he believes investors will find greater opportunity in gold-mining stocks than in physical gold itself. Coupled with demand behind heightened heightened because gold is historically an asset for uncertain times, and Millman said that while he thinks there may be more volatility moving forward, gold will continue to trend higher. David Trainer, founder/president at New Constructs [https://newconstructs.com]. puts PPE maker Lakeland Industries in the Danger Zone, noting that these times are much different from when the stock was flying high during the pandemic. Ryan Butler,  senior editor at Covers.com [https://covers.com], talks about the early impact that tariffs have had on the gaming industry and what he's watching for as trade policies play out, plus Chuck looks at the first 100 days of Trump Administration 2.0 and discusses how the numbers have played out on everything from inflation and consumer prices to the personal savings rate, home and auto sales, mortgage and car loans and more.

Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments [https://crossmarkglobal.com], says investors looking at current market turmoil and the potential for stagflation and an economic recession should remember that "Doing nothing is something," making an active decision to continue with current allocations, which she says is appropriate for anyone who felt balanced when they entered 2025. Fernandez expects current tariff policies to drive inflation above the 4 percent level before it cools, creating a stagflationary environment, bringing some hard times that she thinks won't last long once the economy and the market have some long-term clarity and stability on policy changes. because the economy was so strong entering the year. Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates [https://sitinvest.com], discusses the trading opportunities in closed-end funds created by the market's volatility, but he also notes that in spite of the tumult, his prediction for fixed-income closed-end fund returns this year "is still double digits, it's just going to be different." Plus Burns McKinney, senior portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group [https://nfjinv.com] brings his "modern value" investing approach to the Market Call.