Why Should We Care About How to Prevent a War over Taiwan? | with Dr. Eyck Freymann

Why Should We Care About How to Prevent a War over Taiwan? | with Dr. Eyck Freymann

What if China could take Taiwan without firing a single missile? In this episode, Dr. Eyck Freymann [https://www.hoover.org/profiles/eyck-freymann] explains how Beijing's primary strategy isn't a cross-strait invasion - it's a gray-zone "quarantine" that could leave Taipei and Washington with no good options. Dr. Freymann, a Hoover Institution Fellow and author of Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China [https://global.oup.com/academic/product/defending-taiwan-9780197823842?cc=us&lang=en&], joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to break down why Taiwan is the central strategic question of our era, and why the United States still doesn't have a plan to deter Xi Jinping’s ambitions to take the island. Freymann argues that Taiwan’s importance rests on three pillars: its production of 90% of the world’s advanced semiconductors powering AI, its position anchoring the First Island Chain that constrains China’s navy, and its role in preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific economic order. In this episode, we talk to Eyck about: •⁠ ⁠The quarantine scenario: why Beijing might simply declare that all ships and aircraft entering Taiwan must clear Chinese customs first. •⁠ ⁠Why TSMC’s Arizona and Japan fabs are generations behind and can’t replace what’s in Taiwan. •⁠ ⁠Xi Jinping’s “national rejuvenation” project and why Taiwan is the keystone in the arch. •⁠ ⁠Structured ambiguity: Freymann’s original concept for countering China’s gray-zone salami slicing. •⁠ ⁠Avalanche decoupling: a realistic plan to reduce dangerous economic dependencies on China before a crisis hits. If you care about US-China competition, AI, semiconductors, or whether war can still be prevented - this is essential listening. 👉 Follow Dr. Eyck Freymann on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/eyck-freymann/] or X, @eyckfreymann [https://x.com/eyckfreymann] 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/], or Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/IndoPacPodcast] 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay [https://x.com/GordianKnotRay], or LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymondpowell/], or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight [https://www.sealight.live/] 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-carouso-baa31a9/] 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/], a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Why Should We Care About the Trump–Xi Summit? | with Michael Sobolik

This week President Donald Trump heads to Beijing for a high-stakes summit with Xi Jinping - the first U.S. presidential visit to China in nearly a decade. But this isn't 2017 all over again. China is stronger, America's alliances are under strain, the war in Iran has scrambled the chessboard, and the stakes run straight through Taiwan, AI chips, rare earths and critical minerals, and the supply chains the world depends on. Hosts Ray Powell and Jim Caruso are joined by Michael Sobolik, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute and author of Countering China's Great Game: A Strategy for American Dominance [https://www.usni.org/press/books/countering-chinas-great-game]. Michael unpacks why Trump may be arriving in Beijing with less leverage than he wanted, why the Iran war isn't the "four-dimensional chess" anti-China strategy some Washington commentators imagine, and what Xi Jinping's "Christmas wish list" could look like - from a public U.S. statement against Taiwanese independence to economic offers that sound like wins but could deepen American dependence on China and spook America’s Indo-Pacific allies. He also warns about the AI race hiding in plain sight: selling advanced chips to China, he argues, can mean "equipping your adversary with a weapon they don't know how to make themselves yet." As for Chinese electric vehicles manufactured on American soil, he calls that "TikTok on wheels" - a potential extinction-level event for U.S. and Japanese automakers and a national security nightmare. Michael flags one summit topic getting too much attention: setting AI rules, which he thinks is likely to yield very little substantial fruit. He also emphasizes another getting too little: political prisoners. Human rights, he argues, isn't just a moral add-on, it's strategic pressure on a Leninist regime that fears its own people, and one of the most overlooked sources of American leverage heading into Beijing. 👉 Follow Michael Sobolik on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelsobolik/] or X, @michaelsobolik [https://x.com/michaelsobolik] 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/], or Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/IndoPacPodcast] 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay [https://x.com/GordianKnotRay], or LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymondpowell/], or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight [https://www.sealight.live/] 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-carouso-baa31a9/] 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/], a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Why Should We Care if Beijing’s Propaganda is Attacking Journalists who Report Critically on China? | with Regine Cabato

What happens when you publish an investigation that an authoritarian superpower doesn't want the world to see? Journalist Regine Cabato found out. A contributor at the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism (PCIJ) and former Washington Post correspondent in Manila, Regine published an explainer exposing how pro-China disinformation networks have taken root in Filipino social media feeds. The Chinese Embassy in Manila responded by attacking PCIJ online and putting her face on its social media posts - unleashing a torrent of harassment, sexist abuse, and smears labeling her a "CIA plant" and a tool of U.S. interests. In this episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Regine to unpack what happened and why it matters far beyond the Philippines. She walks us through how she identified the red flags of pro-Beijing propaganda, why participation in China-sponsored journalist programs isn't automatically disqualifying but the rhetoric that follows often is, and how influence operations exploit the overlap between pro-Duterte networks and pro-China narratives without ever being overtly traceable to the Chinese state. Regine also reveals the personal toll: the midnight moment her phone lit up with the embassy's post, watching the hate campaign build in real time, and why she says the attacks are actually a sign her reporting is landing. She reflects on the solidarity she received from the Committee to Protect Journalists, Reporters Without Borders and Philippine press organizations - and why the Philippines remains one of the last places in the region where journalists can still report critically on China. The conversation ranges across transnational repression, U.S. credibility under the Trump administration, the weaponization of foreign-funding smears, and the broader chilling effect on Filipino newsrooms. Regine closes with a message for young reporters weighing whether to take on a powerful government: it's not for everyone, but any project that defends democratic discussion is worth it. If you care about press freedom, Chinese political warfare, the South China Sea, or the future of democracy in the Indo-Pacific, this is an essential listen. 👉 Follow Regine Cabato on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/reginecabato/] or X, @RegineCabato [https://x.com/RegineCabato] 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/], or Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/IndoPacPodcast] 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay [https://x.com/GordianKnotRay], or LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymondpowell/], or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight [https://www.sealight.live/] 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-carouso-baa31a9/] 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/], a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Why Should We Care About Nepal? | Gen Z Revolution, India-China Rivalry & the Iran War’s Impact on South Asia | with BGA's Sujeev Shakya

Nepal just experienced one of Asia’s most dramatic recent political upheavals. A former rapper and Kathmandu mayor, Balen Shah, swept to power in a landslide election, winning 182 of 275 parliamentary seats and wiping out every established political party. With half of Nepal’s 30 million people under 25, this “Gen Z Revolution” could signal a trend for young democracies worldwide. In this episode, Sujeev Shakya [https://bowergroupasia.com/teams/profiles/sujeev-shakya/] - Chair of the Nepal Economic Forum and senior advisor for Nepal and Bhutan at BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/] - explains what happened, why it matters, and what comes next for this small Himalayan country sandwiched between India and China. We explore: •⁠ ⁠How a youth-led anti-corruption movement toppled the government and formed an interim administration on Discord in just five days •⁠ ⁠Why Nepal’s new PM is focused on public service delivery rather than grand promises, and whether he can actually end decades of entrenched corruption •⁠ ⁠Nepal’s remarkable economic transformation: GDP growth from $7B to $44B in 20 years, fueled by $15B in annual remittances and a booming IT export sector •⁠ ⁠How Nepal navigates its position between India and China - aiming to be an economic “bridge” rather than a geopolitical buffer •⁠ ⁠The impact of the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz closure on Nepal’s fuel supply and its two million workers in the Gulf •⁠ ⁠Why thousands of Nepali soldiers are fighting for Russia in Ukraine - and the new government’s challenge of bringing them home •⁠ ⁠Investment opportunities in hydropower, agriculture, technology, tourism, and infrastructure Whether you follow South Asian politics, India-China competition, or youth-led political movements, Nepal’s story offers insights into how small states survive and thrive between great powers. 👉 Follow Sujeev Shakya on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/sujeevshakya/] or X, @sujeevshakya [https://x.com/sujeevshakya] 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/], or Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/IndoPacPodcast] 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay [https://x.com/GordianKnotRay], or LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymondpowell/], or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight [https://www.sealight.live/] 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-carouso-baa31a9/] 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/], a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Why Should We Care About the World’s Blocked Oil Artery? | with Sal Mercogliano

Eighty to ninety percent of global commerce moves by sea - including 75% of the world’s oil and almost all liquefied natural gas (LNG). So when the Strait of Hormuz shuts down, the shockwaves reach every corner of the Indo-Pacific and beyond. In this episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome back maritime historian Dr. Sal Mercogliano - Campbell University professor, former merchant mariner, and host of the popular YouTube channel What's Going on with Shipping? [https://www.youtube.com/@wgowshipping] - to unpack the two-month-old crisis that has bottled up 800 ships inside the Persian Gulf and pushed the U.S. Navy to seize tankers thousands of miles away in the Indian Ocean. Sal lays out what he calls a “tale of two blockades”: Iran rerouting traffic into its own territorial waters, shaking down shipping companies for multimillion-dollar transit payments on an international waterway and seizing Mediterranean Shipping Company vessels, while the United States mounts a blockade from the Northern Arabian Sea, firing inert shells at the Iranian container ship Touska and boarding stateless tankers in the Indian Ocean under U.S. Department of Justice warrants. We dig into the Venezuela vessel seizure precedent, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the return of mine warfare, and why ship owners aren’t budging even with insurance on offer. Sal explains how ship-to-ship transfers off East Johor, Malaysia launder sanctioned Iranian crude, and why that anchorage could be the next target of U.S. enforcement. He also walks through the pressure building inside Iran: storage tanks filling, old supertankers towed out of retirement at Kharg Island, and the looming prospect of permanently damaging Iran’s aging low-pressure oil wells. We close on the ripple effects reaching Pakistan, India, Africa, and Southeast Asia - refineries shutting down, fertilizer supplies choked, and bunker fuel prices doubling - plus the quiet winner: Russia. Join us for a masterclass on why a regional war has become a global economic crisis and what the breakdown of freedom of the seas means for the Indo-Pacific. 👉 Follow Sal on YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@wgowshipping] and X, @mercoglianos [https://x.com/mercoglianos] 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/], or Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/IndoPacPodcast] 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay [https://x.com/GordianKnotRay], or LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymondpowell/], or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight [https://www.sealight.live/] 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-carouso-baa31a9/] 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/], a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific