Geographic Feature: Madagascar

Kuvaus

Thursday, June 11, 2026. MADAGASCAR ENERGY MARKET: Sits on massive untapped oil reserves but remains net importer with minimal commercial production. OIL RESERVES: Total potential ~20 billion barrels of oil in place/resources. Tsimiroro field (Madagascar Oil, Block 3104): 1.7-2 billion barrels heavy oil, 25-year development license (2015), pilot/production since ~2013. Bemolanga field: 16.6 billion barrels ultra-heavy oil/bitumen (~9.8 billion recoverable), one of world's largest undeveloped bitumen deposits, historically partnered with Total. Combined (Tsimiroro + Bemolanga): ~9.9 billion barrels (2022 assessment). USGS undiscovered (Morondava Basin): Mean 5.1 billion barrels, F95-F5 range 1.4-11.8 billion barrels. NATURAL GAS: Proven reserves zero, minimal/no commercial production. Potential >91 billion m³ (older estimates), some exploration wells showed non-commercial gas flows. Interest linked to nearby Mozambique discoveries. PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION: No significant commercial oil production (pilot-scale only). Consumption ~19,000-19,465 bpd (2024), net importer. Electricity heavily dependent on imported fuels. ENERGY MIX: ~76% of final energy consumption from biofuels/waste. Low electrification and renewable penetration relative to potential. EXPLORATION: Multiple international companies active (onshore/offshore). Madagascar Oil longest-operating player with largest onshore acreage. Historical wells showed light oil and gas potential. THE OPPORTUNITY: Madagascar has reserves but lacks infrastructure, capital, political stability for rapid development. Heavy oil extraction technically challenging/expensive. Bitumen requires advanced technology and significant upfront investment. For patient capital with long-term horizons, frontier play. Execution risk high. BOTTOM LINE: Madagascar—massive reserves, minimal production, high risk, long timeline. Not near-term energy market mover. Speculative frontier play for institutional capital with deep pockets and patience.

EIA Petroleum Status Report Released

Wednesday, July 15, 2026. EIA PETROLEUM STATUS REPORT RELEASED. Jul 15, 2026, 10:30 a.m. ET. Covering week ending ~Jul 10, 2026. CRUDE OIL INVENTORY DATA: Prior week (ending Jul 3, released Jul 8): U.S. crude oil inventories 411.4M barrels (+3.0M week-over-week; first build after 10 consecutive weeks of declines). Level ~6% below 5-year average for this time of year. REFINERY METRICS: Crude oil refinery inputs 17.0M b/d (down 173k b/d from prior week). Refinery operable capacity utilization 95.8%. Gasoline production 9.7M b/d (decreased from prior week). Distillate fuel production 5.2M b/d (decreased from prior week). IMPORTS/PRODUCTS: Crude oil imports 5.6M b/d (up 351k b/d from prior week); 4-week avg ~5.4M b/d (down 11.4% YoY). Motor gasoline inventories decreased 1.9M barrels week-over-week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased 5.0M barrels week-over-week (~12% below 5-year average). Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased 4.0M barrels week-over-week. DEMAND METRICS: Total products supplied (4-week avg) 20.6M b/d (+0.3% YoY). 4-week motor gasoline supplied 9.0M b/d (down 2.2% YoY). BROADER CONTEXT: Global/OECD inventory draws due to geopolitical factors (Middle East supply disruptions). OECD stocks heading toward multi-decade lows. Global inventories forecast to shift toward builds later 2026. PRICE FORECASTS: EIA forecasts Brent ~$74/bbl in 3Q26, ~$65/bbl in 2027 amid easing inventory pressure/rising supply. IEA OIL MARKET REPORT (Jul 2026): Refined product cracks/margins at 4-year highs in early Jul as crude supplies rose/prices fell. Global observed inventories rose in Jun for first time in months. NATURAL GAS STORAGE REPORT: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (most recent; week ending Jul 3, released Jul 9). Storage level working gas 2,983 Bcf as of Jul 3, 2026. Weekly change net injection +61 Bcf (above consensus ~58-60 Bcf; above 5-year avg ~51-54 Bcf). Year-over-year 15 Bcf below same week last year. 5-year avg 185 Bcf (~7%) above 5-year average 2,798 Bcf. MARKET CONTEXT: Build occurred amid peak summer cooling demand/record heat. Production strong. LNG feedgas near 19 Bcf/d. PRICE IMPACT: Larger-than-expected injection viewed as bearish. Contributed to declines in natural gas futures. Aug contract dropped notably post-report. REGIONAL NOTE: Midwest saw highest net injections (~23 Bcf) in reported week. HENRY HUB FUTURES/SPOT: Henry Hub futures mid-Jul 2026 trading ~$2.89-$2.90/MMBtu (~2.898 recent data). Henry Hub spot Jun 2026 monthly avg ~$3.14/MMBtu. Broader 2026 avg projected near $3.60/MMBtu in EIA outlooks. OUTLOOK: High inventories expected to limit upward price pressure through 2026. Henry Hub spot forecast to avg just under $3.50/MMBtu for year in some EIA projections. Next release Jul 16, 2026 (Thursday, 10:30 a.m. ET). THE READ: Crude first build after 10 weeks of declines, inventories 6% below 5-year average, refinery runs down, demand flat, geopolitical premium fading. Support $75, resistance $82. Gas larger-than-expected injection bearish for near-term, high inventories limiting upside, target $3.50 for year. WEEK 28 MIDWEEK THESIS: Crude inventory build signals easing supply stress, geopolitical premium fading. Support $75, resistance $82. Gas storage build bearish, high inventories limiting upside, target $3.50 for year. Trade the data, not the headlines.

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Geographic Feature: Madagascar

Kuvaus

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