Iran Halts Talks: Crude at the Crossroads

Strategic Positioning: Week 27 Midweek Update

Wednesday, July 1, 2026. WEEK 27 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil trading ~$69.98-$70.42. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released today (covering week ending Jun 26, 2026). CRUDE OIL INVENTORY UPDATE: Latest reported week ending Jun 19, 2026 crude fell 6.088M barrels to 412.1M barrels (7% below 5-year avg). Cushing, Oklahoma stocks down over 1M barrels in latest week. BROADER CONTEXT: OECD stocks heading toward multi-decade lows driven by Iran-related conflict and Strait of Hormuz issues. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Jun 2026 forecasts 6.3M bpd global inventory declines in Q2 2026. Brent prices expected ~$105/bbl Jun/Jul before potential easing later in year. REFINERY ACTIVITY: Runs and utilization high to offset supply gaps, contributing to inventory draws. GASOLINE AND DISTILLATE STOCKS: Gasoline +2.064M barrels, distillates +3.064M barrels (contrasting crude draw; refineries running hard to produce products). NATURAL GAS: No EIA storage report today (releases occur Thursdays 10:30 a.m. ET). Next release Jul 2, 2026 (covering week ending Jun 26, 2026). Latest storage data week ending Jun 19, 2026: Working gas in storage 2,835 Bcf. Net injection +76 Bcf from prior week. Year-over-year 49 Bcf below same week 2025. Five-year average 152 Bcf above average. THE SETUP: Crude inventories falling, multi-decade lows, support for higher prices, but WTI trading $70, consolidation continues. Support $67.93, resistance $71.84. Watch for EIA data surprises. Doha talks ongoing. Gas storage building, injections strong, accumulation zone intact. WEEK 27 THESIS: Crude fade trade complete, mean reversion delivered, geopolitical premium fading but Hormuz risk remains. Short any bounces above $72. Target $65-$67. Gas storage building, injections strong, accumulation intact. Target $4.00+. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Technicals: Week 27

Tuesday, June 30, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $70. Recent closes ~$70.04-$70.42. Intraday range $69-$71 area. KEY LEVELS: Psychological support zone $70 (key round-number level). Immediate daily pivot support cluster ~$69.88-$70.17 (supports just below current price). Nearby resistances ~$70.46-$70.58. Near-term support ~$67-$68 (recent lows, swing references). 200-day moving average support ~$66.14 (major longer-term support). Deeper support ~$60-$65 (psychological round number, prior zones; $65 potential downside objective). Immediate resistance ~$71-$73 (recent highs, swing points, pivot resistances). Former support now resistance ~$74-$76 (key zone from prior price action). Next resistance ~$80 (notable upside target/barrier). 50-day moving average resistance ~$89 (longer-term moving average overhead resistance). SETUP: Crude in consolidation. Support at $67.93. Resistance at $71.84. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. Watch Doha talks. Hormuz escalation risk remains. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub trading ~$3.17-$3.19. Intraday range ~$3.170-$3.313. INDICATORS: RSI(14) 32.85-34.09 (Sell signal, neutral-to-oversold, weakening momentum, potential further downside/consolidation). MACD(12,26) -0.027 to -0.031 (Sell signal, negative, confirming bearish momentum). Overall technical Strong Sell (moving averages Sell, technical indicators Strong Sell). PIVOT POINTS: S3 ~3.164, S2 ~3.171, S1 ~3.179, Pivot ~3.186, R1 ~3.194, R2 ~3.201, R3 ~3.209. MOVING AVERAGES: Price trading below most SMAs/EMAs. MA5 ~3.186-$3.194 range mixed signals. MA10/20/50/100/200 mostly Sell. OTHER INDICATORS: STOCH(9,6) ~12.8 (Oversold). Williams %R ~-87 (Oversold). CCI(14) ~-100 (Sell). ADX(14) ~25 (Sell/trending). 52-WEEK RANGE: ~2.48-$7.83. SUPPORT/RESISTANCE: Support near 2.9-$3.0. Resistance around 3.1-$3.3. DOHA TALKS UPDATE: Trump announced Iran requested meeting, taking place today Doha. US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner flying to Doha for high-level meetings this week. Iran denies direct talks (Iranian officials state delegation heading to Doha but NOT for direct US meetings). Focus implementing MOU via Qatari mediators. Stand-down agreement both sides agreed halt attacks "for now," allow vessels move freely Strait of Hormuz, continue technical talks MOU. Context tit-for-tat strikes weekend linked Strait of Hormuz disputes, strains interim deal. MOU focus resolve shipping safety, cease-fire implementation, Iran's role/management claims over strait. Qatari role acting mediator/host. Iranian position describes situation "sensitive and complex," continues asserting influence Hormuz management. THE READ: Crude consolidating $70, support $67.93, resistance $71.84. Watch Doha talks. Hormuz risk remains. Gas oversold (RSI 32, MACD negative), support near $3.0, resistance $3.1-$3.3. Accumulation zone intact but momentum weak. Doha talks critical. If successful crude could fade $65-$67. If escalation resumes crude could spike $75-$80. Trade the technicals. Respect the levels.

Doha Talks Resume

Monday, June 29, 2026. WEEK 27 OPENS. WTI crude oil opened at $70.50. Recent session range high $70.97, low $69.32. Prior close Jun 26 $69.23. Latest quotes ~$69.95-$70.21 (up slightly from Friday close). CRUDE OIL SETUP: Support at $67.93. Resistance at $71.84. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. Crude broken below $70 last week. This week watch for Hormuz escalation risk. Talks resume Doha Jun 30. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub at ~$3.28/MMBtu (down ~0.49%). Jun 22 EIA spot $3.16/MMBtu. CME Henry Hub futures $3.28-$3.31 range. EIA projections averages ~$3.34-$3.60/MMBtu for 2026 periods. Storage building. Injections strong. Accumulation zone intact. US-IRAN NEGOTIATIONS: Mid-June MOU signed ~Jun 17. Formal signing ~Jun 19 Geneva, Switzerland. 60-day negotiation window for nuclear issues, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access. Late Jun Switzerland talks ~Jun 19-21 Bürgenstock, Switzerland (near Geneva, Lucerne). Described positive and constructive. Progress high-level oversight committee, Hormuz communications line, IAEA inspectors' access discussed. Some follow-ups called off amid regional flare-ups (Lebanon, Hezbollah). JUNE 29 UPDATES: US and Iran agreed to halt attacks. Plans for renewed talks Doha, Qatar, Jun 30. Focus Strait and broader MOU implementation. STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHIPPING: Fragile recovery post-MOU. Traffic picking up modestly (some LNG and VLCC movements). Well below pre-conflict norms (~138 vessels/day pre-war vs single digits-low tens recently). Hampered by risks, insurance, recent incidents. Post-MOU efforts UN maritime agency coordination, freeing trapped ships, safer routes near Oman. Recent escalation (late Jun 2026) attacks on commercial vessels/cargo ships. US retaliatory strikes on Iran. Iran signaling intent to resume transit fees after 60-day suspension. Iran asserts control over waterway. Ongoing mine risks, blockades, incidents suppressing traffic. Some Iranian oil exports resuming in limited volumes. SETUP: Crude support at $67.93, resistance at $71.84. Watch Doha talks Jun 30. Hormuz escalation risk remains. Gas $3.28/MMBtu. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. WEEK 27 THESIS: Crude fade trade complete, mean reversion delivered, geopolitical premium fading but Hormuz risk remains. Short any bounces above $72. Target $65-$67. Gas storage building, injections strong, accumulation intact. Target $4.00+. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Weekly Recap: Week 26 Complete

Friday, June 26, 2026. WEEK 26 COMPLETE. Twenty-six weeks running. The thesis delivers again. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Monday opened $74.82 (deal live, Hormuz open, geopolitical premium intact). Tuesday technicals showed broad range $73-$78 zone, short bias below $73.91. Wednesday EIA inventory report crude fell 8.3M barrels week ending Jun 12 (10th consecutive draw, multi-decade lows). Thursday crude broke $70 (fade trade complete, mean reversion delivered). Friday closed $70.54. WEEKLY SUMMARY: Week-start $74.82, week-end $70.54, weekly change -$4.28 (-5.72%). Weekly high $78.96 (Mon), weekly low $68.91 (Thu). Largest daily drop -3.92% Wed (close $70.34). Daily closes Mon $74.82, Tue $73.21, Wed $70.34, Thu $71.52, Fri $70.54. Pattern seventh lower low in recent sessions. Key drivers easing supply disruption fears from Strait of Hormuz reopening, EIA revised 2026 global demand forecast lower (-1.1M bpd). Context well below 2026 peaks above $100/bbl earlier in year. NATURAL GAS RECAP: EIA Weekly Storage Report released Jun 25 for week ending Jun 19: Working gas 2,835 Bcf. Net change +76 Bcf injection. Year-ago 49 Bcf below. 5-year average 152 Bcf above. HENRY HUB SPOT PRICES: Jun 5 $3.03/MMBtu, Jun 12 $3.16/MMBtu, Jun 19 $3.12/MMBtu, Jun 22 $3.16/MMBtu. HENRY HUB FUTURES: August contract ~$3.282-$3.288. Nearby contracts low-to-mid $3.10s-$3.20s range. Some daily closes $3.15-$3.23. EIA PROJECTIONS: Henry Hub averages ~$3.30-$4.00/MMBtu for parts of 2026. WEEK 26 SUMMARY: Deal live. Hormuz shipping normalizing. Crude fade trade complete, mean reversion delivered, broke $70, support at $67.93. Gas storage building, injections strong, accumulation intact, $3.05-$3.15 prime entry, target $4.00+. Geopolitical premium gone. WEEK 27 PREVIEW: Watch further Hormuz normalization. Technical talks resume Geneva. Crude support at $67.93. Gas accumulation continues. BOTTOM LINE: Twenty-six weeks. Every thesis confirmed. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Crude Breaks $70

Thursday, June 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading $69.20-$69.36 (down 1.4-1.7% from prior close ~$70.34). Daily range ~$69.01-$70.23. August 2026 contract ~$69.66. Recent performance down ~26% past month, still up ~6% YTD. PRIMARY DRIVER: Easing supply concerns as Strait of Hormuz shipping returns to normal, increasing crude flows, pressuring prices lower. Brent crude low-to-mid $72s (multi-month lows). Near-term levels four-to-five month lows, continued downward pressure. VOLATILITY NOTE: Significant retreat from 2026 highs tied to geopolitical supply risks. Markets pricing in improved supply availability. SETUP: Crude broken below $70. Support at $67.93. Below that $65.15. Resistance at $71.84. Above that $73.91. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Most recent EIA report released Jun 18 for week ending Jun 12: Total working gas 2,759 Bcf. Weekly net change +73 Bcf injection. Year-ago (Jun 12, 2025) 2,788 Bcf (down 29 Bcf or -1.0%). 5-year average (2021-2025) 2,608 Bcf (up 151 Bcf or +5.8%). Within 5-year historical range. REGIONAL INJECTIONS: East +18, Midwest +28, Mountain +4, Pacific +5, South Central +16 Bcf. NEXT REPORT: Jun 25 at 10:30 AM ET for week ending Jun 19. Analyst forecasts ~68 Bcf injection. Prior week 73 Bcf below some expectations (80-82 Bcf), contributing to upward pressure on natural gas prices. DEAL STATUS: MOU signed ~Jun 15-17. Formal signing Jun 19, Switzerland. 60-day negotiation window for broader deal. KEY ELEMENTS: Iran diluting highly enriched uranium stockpiles. UN nuclear inspectors returning. Strait of Hormuz reopened to maritime traffic, no tolls. Sanctions relief, possible frozen assets release ($25-300B incentives/reconstruction). Working groups on oversight, sanctions, nuclear matters. STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHIPPING: Previously near zero daily transits during conflict. Partial reopening under MOU with fluctuating but generally increasing traffic. Projections rise toward 40-50% pre-war levels (~40 transits/day vs ~100 pre-war) within 30 days if stable. Recent stalls only 12 ships one Sunday amid closure announcements, traffic picked up since. Iranian, Omani, international routes in use. NEGOTIATIONS: Technical talks set to resume Geneva following week. US officials (Secretary of State Marco Rubio) warning talks could halt if Iran seeks tolls. Regional players (Qatar, Saudi Arabia) discussing security implications. BOTTOM LINE: Crude broken below $70. Support at $67.93. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. Gas storage building. Injections strong. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. Deal live. Hormuz shipping normalizing. Geopolitical premium gone. Trade the data, not the headlines.