Markets on the 50-Yard Line

Scarce Cattle, Smart Supply

Welcome back to Markets to Menus. In this episode, our host David Maloni is joined again by John Goodwin, Senior Commodity Analyst at ArrowStream, to break down the latest moves across commodity markets, including the ripple effects of the Iran-U.S. conflict, fuel market pressure, cattle supply tightness, Brazil weather impacts, and what those developments could mean for foodservice buyers. Later, David sits down with Megan Posenato, Vice President of Supply Chain and Quality Assurance at NAYA, a fast-growing Middle Eastern fast-casual brand rooted in Lebanese recipes and family tradition. Megan shares what she learned helping scale Shake Shack’s supply chain from roughly 40 to 500 U.S. locations, what she is building now at NAYA, and why inventory visibility, supplier relationships, forecasting, technology, and strong teams are essential for emerging restaurant brands. Connect with our host: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidmaloni/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidmaloni/]Connect with our guests: John Goodwin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-goodwin-23574a129/?utm_source=chatgpt.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/john-goodwin-23574a129/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-goodwin-23574a129/] https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-goodwin-23574a129/?utm_source=chatgpt.comMegan Posenato: https://www.linkedin.com/in/megan-posenato-68150748?utm_source=chatgpt.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/megan-posenato-68150748 [https://www.linkedin.com/in/megan-posenato-68150748]NAYA: https://www.eatnaya.com/ [https://www.eatnaya.com/] This episode is brought to you by ArrowStream CommodityONE, delivering superior commodity research and forecasts powered by deep Industry expertise & cutting edge AI. Find out more about us here: https://arrowstream.com/commodityone-for-foodservice-supply-chain/ [https://arrowstream.com/commodityone-for-foodservice-supply-chain/]

Commodity Chaos, AI Calm

Welcome to the first episode of Markets to Menus. Today I’m joined by John Goodwin to break down the latest commodity market developments, including the ongoing Iran–U.S. conflict, the implications of El Niño on global agriculture, and the emergence of New World screwworm cases in the United States. We discuss how geopolitical tensions, weather-driven volatility, and livestock health concerns could impact key food commodities ranging from grains and sugar to beef and dairy. Later, I’m joined by Buyers Edge Platform AI leaders Ari J.Y. McShane, Kyle Stamm, and Jack Huffman to explore how artificial intelligence is transforming the foodservice supply chain. We discuss the differences between traditional analytics and AI, the importance of high-quality data, emerging use cases for operators and procurement teams, and how restaurant organizations can begin preparing for an AI-driven future. Connect with our host: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidmaloni/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidmaloni/]Connect with our Guests: John Goodwin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-goodwin-23574a129/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-goodwin-23574a129/] Ari J.Y. McShane : https://www.linkedin.com/in/ari-j-y-mcshane-36a0ba32/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/ari-j-y-mcshane-36a0ba32/]Kyle Stamm: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kstamm/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/kstamm/]Jack Huffman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-huffman/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-huffman/]  This episode is brought to you by ArrowStream CommodityONE, delivering superior commodity research and forecasts powered by deep Industry expertise & cutting edge AI. Find out more about us here: https://arrowstream.com/commodityone-for-foodservice-supply-chain/ [https://arrowstream.com/commodityone-for-foodservice-supply-chain/]

Firm Markets, Funky Consumers

In this episode, I break down the latest moves across the commodity markets, and we’re continuing to see firming conditions in several key areas. The Datum FS Commodity Index moved higher again, soybean oil climbed to six-month highs, and dairy markets strengthened with cheese and butter both trading higher on solid volume. In proteins, chicken markets are rising even with year-to-date production up, egg prices have doubled since our last episode, and pork bellies hit 11-week highs. Beef remains a major story — year-to-date slaughter is down sharply, and the latest annual cattle report shows the smallest U.S. herd since 1951, with inventory down year over year and herd rebuilding expected to be slow, especially with drought in the Southern Plains. I’m then joined by Jonathan Maze, Editor-in-Chief of Restaurant Business Magazine, to talk about the consumer and the foodservice industry. As he puts it, the consumer is “weird” right now — very price sensitive, yet still spending on delivery and rushing to try viral menu items. We discuss how social media is accelerating trends and driving sudden traffic swings, while heavy discounting continues as the industry works through ongoing traffic challenges. Looking ahead, Jonathan says one of the biggest trends to watch is beverages, as younger consumers shift away from traditional meal patterns and restaurants push harder into drink innovation to capture more occasions. Connect with our host: David Maloni’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidmaloni/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidmaloni/] Connect with our Guest:  Jonathan Maze's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanmaze/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanmaze/] Click here to find out more: https://datumfs.com/ [https://datumfs.com/]

Inflation Signals

In this episode, I review what’s changing across major commodity markets. Even though the Datum FS Commodity Index is still trading near two-year lows, I’m starting to see inflation creep back into several areas. I call out crude oil moving higher, the dollar being higher (not ideal for commodities), and grain markets staying generally rangebound. The clearest standout on the ag side is soybean oil, which I note is up 20% year over year and at a five-month high this week, with biodiesel demand as a major driver. I also run through proteins and dairy. In dairy, I mention cheese blocks higher, barrels kind of flat, and butter sharply higher—while also noting cheese and butter are still down materially year over year. On proteins, I cover table eggs jumping $0.27/dozen this week, chicken markets firming (breasts and wings at multi-week highs), pork output up year over year with a cutout that’s been sideways but down month over month, and beef output down year over year with choice and select cutouts higher versus last year. I flag chicken breasts as moving through key technical resistance levels, and I close with consumer sentiment improving per the University of Michigan reading, along with a reminder that inflation can show up all at once—so staying close to the data matters. David Maloni’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidmaloni/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidmaloni/] Click here to find out more: https://datumfs.com/ [https://datumfs.com/]

2026 Market Reset

Welcome to The Commodity Kitchen Podcast, and happy New Year. In this episode, 2026 Market Reset, I walked through what’s setting the tone for markets as we head into the new year. Grain markets are generally rangebound with some firmness in soybean meal, and soybean oil is still up about 9% year over year due in part to biofuel demand. In dairy, cheese blocks are steady while butter is down 7.9% on the month, marking some of the lowest non-COVID prices of the last decade and creating real contracting opportunities. Crude was a little firmer, while diesel and gasoline prices continue to edge lower. On proteins, eggs have been hit hard—down 61% over the last month—while chicken output is up 4.3% year over year, keeping markets in check. Pork output is up short term but expected to be fairly tepid for the year, and beef production is down 5.2% with trim firming and the rib complex unusually weak. I also flagged the potential Supreme Court ruling on Trump-era tariffs and China’s new 55% tariff on beef once quotas are filled, both of which could add confusion and tighten imported lean beef supplies in the U.S. as we move further into 2026. Connect with our host: David Maloni’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidmaloni/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidmaloni/] Click here to find out more: https://datumfs.com/ [https://datumfs.com/]