How Prediction Markets Made The World A Casino

Is Iowa The New Maine For Democrats?

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.gdpolitics.com [https://www.gdpolitics.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_7] The full episode is available to paid subscribers. Once you become a paid subscriber, you can connect your account to your preferred podcast player here [https://www.gdpolitics.com/listen]. Democrats entered the 2026 cycle with a difficult Senate map and a familiar hope: maybe Maine would be the race that helped them claw their way toward a majority. But after this week, that picture is getting more complicated. Iowa, a state Donald Trump won by double digits, is suddenly demanding more attention. And Maine, a state Kamala Harris carried comfortably, is looking messier than Democrats would like. On this installment of the podcast, I’m joined by Mary Radcliffe of 50+1 and Jacob Rubashkin of Inside Elections to react to the June 2 primaries in Iowa, California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. In Iowa, Democrats got their preferred Senate nominee. Josh Turek, a state representative and Paralympic gold medalist, beat Zach Wahls by a wide margin. Turek will now face Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in what could become one of the most important Senate races of the cycle. The state has moved sharply right in recent years, but Democrats have reason to think the political environment could put it back on the map. Rob Sand, the Democratic nominee for governor, has led in the limited polling we have. And on the Republican side of the governor’s race, the GOP primary produced a surprise: Trump-backed Rep. Randy Feenstra lost narrowly to MAHA-aligned businessman Zach Lahn, who was a major investor in — depending on your level of generosity — either a medical technology company or a sex-toy company. We also check in on California, where slow vote-counting means several major races are still unresolved; Montana, where Democrats are trying to navigate an independent Senate bid; New Jersey, where a key House race is taking shape amid Rep. Tom Kean Jr.’s continued absence from public view; and South Dakota, where Republicans are headed to a historically unusual gubernatorial runoff. Lastly, we circle back to Maine, where Graham Platner’s steady drip of controversies has some Democrats asking whether Iowa might now be a cleaner, more promising part of the Senate map.

Sexts, Autopsies, and Primary Chaos

On today’s podcast, I’m back from vacation and joined by Mary Radcliffe of 50+1 and Jacob Rubashkin of Inside Elections to catch up on everything I missed while I was away. We start in Maine, where Graham Platner’s Senate campaign is disputing the number of women he sexted with — a dozen or half a dozen? Platner has already weathered a series of damaging stories about his past, and so far, Democratic primary voters do not seem especially moved. But it’s unclear how the broader electorate will react to the steady drip of scandal. Then we turn to Texas, where Ken Paxton is officially the Republican nominee for Senate against Democrat James Talarico. Paxton comes with his own baggage and a much weaker fundraising operation, though a hotly contested primary against John Cornyn may be suppressing his current polling against Talarico. We’re waiting for the dust to settle. We also discuss the DNC’s unfinished 2024 autopsy report, which was both incomplete and revealing. The report omitted some of the biggest questions about the 2024 campaign: Joe Biden’s age, the debate, the way Kamala Harris became the nominee, Gaza, and the broader failures of Biden’s presidency. So, does the Democratic Party actually want to understand what went wrong? Then we preview Tuesday’s primaries for California governor and L.A. mayor, both of which have three candidates polling in the twenties. Given the state’s top-two system, it’s unclear who will advance to the general election: one Democrat and one Republican, or two Democrats? This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gdpolitics.com/subscribe [https://www.gdpolitics.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

The Dollar’s Strange, Fragile Power

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.gdpolitics.com [https://www.gdpolitics.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_7] The full episode is available to paid subscribers. Once you become a paid subscriber, you can connect your account to your preferred podcast player here [https://www.gdpolitics.com/listen]. Jerome Powell’s tenure at the Federal Reserve is over. His eight-year run included the COVID crash, emergency monetary rescue, the return of serious inflation, the fastest rate hikes in decades and a long political fight over the Fed’s independence. With Fed leadership in transition, it’s a good time to ask a much bigger question: Who really controls the U.S. dollar? And how almighty is it? Brendan Greeley’s new book, The Almighty Dollar: 500 Years of the World’s Most Powerful Money [https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/634502/the-almighty-dollar-by-brendan-greeley/], argues that the dollar is older and less American than most Americans realize. The United States didn’t really invent it. And, in some important ways, it has never fully controlled it. That may sound heady. But these are live questions right now. The U.S. is dealing with renewed inflation pressure, global frustration with American power, the rise of alternative currencies, and a China that would very much like a world less dependent on U.S. money. Brendan joins the podcast to talk about the past, present and future of the dollar: why so many dollars are created outside the United States, how America’s ability to borrow almost without limit has shaped our politics, and whether dollar dominance is actually good for the country.

How Partisan Is The Supreme Court, Really?

To some eyes, the Supreme Court faces a legitimacy crisis. Favorable views of the court are hovering around historic lows. Just 40-some percent of Americans have a positive view of the institution, down from 60 percent or more in 2020. And views by party are, predictably, sharply divided, with Democratic approval in the 20s. As the country has become more polarized, and the court has become more decidedly dominated by Republican appointees, there is an increasing sense that a branch that describes itself as above politics is, in fact, plenty political — and aligned with Republicans. This has led to suggestions, largely on the left, but not exclusively, for changing the court: packing it with more members, instituting term limits, or establishing an enforceable code of ethics. But today’s guest argues that folks should slow their roll. She argues that the court isn’t as partisan as it’s made out to be, and that it’s in fact the only branch of government that the Founders would have any hope of recognizing today. Sarah Isgur makes the case in her new book, Last Branch Standing: A Potentially Surprising, Occasionally Witty Journey Inside Today’s Supreme Court. She joins the podcast to argue that the court is less partisan, more functional and more constitutionally recognizable than its critics allow. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gdpolitics.com/subscribe [https://www.gdpolitics.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

Trump, The Lame Duck With Teeth

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.gdpolitics.com [https://www.gdpolitics.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_7] The full episode is available to paid subscribers. Once you become a paid subscriber, you can connect your account to your preferred podcast player here [https://www.gdpolitics.com/listen]. We’ve got a jam-packed election update episode for you today. In Tuesday night’s primaries, Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie lost to Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein. Massie did much better than other Republicans who have crossed Trump, but he still went down by 10 points. Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms won the Democratic primary for Georgia governor outright, while Republicans will head to runoffs in both the governor’s race and the race to take on Sen. Jon Ossoff this fall. Looking ahead to next week, Trump has finally endorsed in the Texas Senate runoff, backing Ken Paxton after seemingly being ready to endorse Sen. John Cornyn months ago. The betting markets now have a general election against James Talarico looking like a pure toss-up. We talk about why Trump settled on Paxton, despite the conventional wisdom that he would be a weaker general election candidate, and how loyalty matters inside the GOP as Trump loses ground with the broader electorate. We also dig into some of the June 2 primaries. We see you, California! And Iowa, and New Jersey, and let’s not forget Montana. Lastly, we check in on where the redistricting wars stand after the Supreme Court’s decision in Callais. With me to do it all is Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of Inside Elections.