The AI/Labor Report
The Degree That Was Supposed to Protect You For most of the past three decades, the standard advice to American workers was direct: get a college degree, move into knowledge work, and stay ahead of the automation wave. That advice produced a generation of workers who did exactly what they were told. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York now reports [https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market] that the unemployment rate for recent college graduates reached 5.6% in March, one of the highest levels in a decade outside of the pandemic. The national unemployment rate stands at 4.3%. New graduates are now faring worse than the general population, a reversal of a pattern that held for thirty years. The Class of 2026 walked across their stages this month into a market that looks nothing like the one their advisors described when they enrolled four years ago. One Worker Who Lost His Job This Week Andrew Tran is 40 years old. He was a product designer at Meta. He lost his job this week [https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ai-layoffs-hiring-entry-level-workers/], part of the 8,000-person cut the company executed after redirecting its labor budget toward AI infrastructure. Tran told CBS News he plans to find work at a company using AI “intentionally,” rather than as a tool for replacing workers. He said corporations “should have an obligation to retrain their workforces instead of throwing them to the curb.” Tran represents the demographic the data has been pointing at all year. He is educated, experienced, and employed in the kind of knowledge-work role that was supposed to be safe. He is also 40, which puts him in the age bracket Anthropic’s own labor market research [https://www.anthropic.com/research/labor-market-impacts] identifies as among the most AI-exposed. The workers the technology hits hardest are more likely to be female, over 40, more educated, and better paid than the workers people assumed would be first in line. Listen on Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-ai-labor-report/id1896663061] PayPal Plans to Cut One in Five Workers Over the Next Three Years Yahoo Finance [https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/paypal-layoffs-ceo-cuts-20-154944985.html] reported that PayPal plans to cut roughly 4,760 workers over the next two to three years. That’s about 20% of its current staff level. PayPal processes payments for millions of American small businesses and independent contractors. The company’s new leadership frames the reduction as part of an AI-driven simplification of operations. Forrester identified earlier this year as a strategy for wage arbitrage dressed up as efficiency [https://www.forrester.com/report/workforce-ai-displacement-2026/]. That slow-burn layoff pattern is the version of displacement most likely to disappear inside the aggregate statistics. BUY NOW! [https://wimdodson.gumroad.com/l/gods_in_the_machine?_gl=1*19da5a0*_ga*MTEwMjE2MDkwMy4xNzc2OTY4MDQy*_ga_6LJN6D94N6*czE3NzY5NjgwNDEkbzEkZzEkdDE3NzY5NjgxNzIkajU5JGwwJGgw] Get the NEW Book that exposes the Narratives Tech uses to build its AI Empire. $4.95 flat fee for Kindle, Nook, Tablets, and Mobile. No subscription required.3.5-hr reading time. California Just Became the First State to Order a Formal Response to AI Worker Displacement Governor Newsom signed Executive Order N-6-26 on May 21 [https://www.gov.ca.gov/2026/05/21/governor-newsom-signs-first-of-its-kind-executive-order-to-prepare-workers-and-businesses-for-potential-ai-disruption/]. The order directs California state agencies to develop policies, gather data, and identify early warning signs of AI-driven workforce disruption. BUY NOW [https://wimdodson.gumroad.com/l/invasion_ai?_gl=1*g1iey2*_ga*OTc1NjU2NTcyLjE3NzQwMzA3NjM.*_ga_6LJN6D94N6*czE3NzQwMzMyMjUkbzIkZzEkdDE3NzQwMzQ2ODgkajYwJGwwJGgw]! Get the book that examines how the AI invasion already happened. You just weren’t invited. $9.95 flat fee for Kindle, Nook, Tablets, and Mobile. No subscription required. 2-hr reading time. It calls for recommendations within 180 days on updates to California’s WARN (Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification) Act. WARN currently requires employers to notify workers of large layoffs 60 days in advance. The order also directs agencies to study severance standards, employment insurance, transition support, and worker ownership models. California Labor Federation’s President Lorena Gonzalez said the order is welcome but added that “it’s not enough to just study the issue, we have to take action now.” California is the state with the most AI companies, the most AI workers, and now the most visible political pressure on an executive who wants to run for president in 2028. AI and worker protections looks to be sizing up (along with data centers) to be a main plank of the Democratic Party in the run up to the 2028 Presidential election. California’s Legislature Passed the No Robo Bosses Act — The Same Bill Newsom Already Vetoed Two days before Newsom signed his executive order, the California Senate passed SB 947, the No Robo Bosses Act, 29-9 [https://sd05.senate.ca.gov/news/ca-senate-approves-no-robo-bosses-act-2026-ensure-human-oversight-ai-workplace]. The bill bars employers from relying solely on AI automated decision systems to fire or discipline workers and requires human oversight in termination decisions. The bill now moves to the state Assembly. Newsom vetoed a nearly identical version of this bill last fall. He cited concerns about overly broad restrictions on employers. The current version was revised to address those objections. The question of whether he signs or vetoes it a second time will determine whether the largest state economy produces any binding protection against automated termination decisions before the EU’s equivalent rules take effect in August. The AI/Labor Report is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Federal Reserve Data Shows What “Stable” Actually Means Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas research [https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/0224] published this year finds that employment in AI-exposed sectors trails the broader economy while wages in those same sectors grow faster than the national average. Since fall 2022, national nominal wages rose 7.5%. Wages in the computer systems design sector rose 16.7% over the same period. So, AI is suppressing the number of workers employed while concentrating wage gains among those who remain. Fewer people share a larger total wage pool. The aggregate wage statistics look healthy. The employment statistics in AI-exposed sectors look different. Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists confirmed in May [https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/do-job-postings-show-early-labor-market-effects-of-ai/] that the effect is already visible in job posting data. Vacancy patterns between AI-exposed and non-exposed occupations are diverging. The signal appears in hiring before it appears in unemployment data. That means the official unemployment statistics are trailing the actual disruption by an unknown lag. The Same Pattern, 9,000 Miles Away A UPI report published Monday [https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/05/25/gig-economy-worker/5161779758231/] warns that approximately 40 million gig economy workers across Southeast Asia face AI-driven automation exposure with no meaningful social safety net in place. A McKinsey survey found two-thirds of major Southeast Asian companies have already fully adopted AI or are actively expanding its use. A speaker at a semiconductor conference in Kuala Lumpur last week said the automation trend “has become irreversible.” The 40 million figure describes workers doing the same kinds of tasks that American contractors, platform workers, and call center employees perform. They exist outside any formal employment relationship. They fall outside displacement tracking systems. They face no WARN Act, no severance study, and no executive order. They’re on their own. Get full access to The AI/Labor Report at ailabor.substack.com/subscribe [https://ailabor.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]
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