RY Stock: HOLD Call - EPS Up 27% YoY After 46% Run Q2 FY2026

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Royal Bank of Canada (RY, NYSE) Q2 FY2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. Financials reported in Canadian dollars (CAD); share price and price targets in USD (NYSE), FX about 1.37 CAD per USD. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $187.97 (USD) -> HOLD - BUY below $165.00 with $148.00 stop - AVOID above $210.00 TRIGGER: Add aggressively if PCL stays below 35 bps for two quarters AND the stock retests $165 WINDOW: 12-18 months - best-in-class earnings power and capital return versus a premium entry WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 0 Strong Buy / 12 Buy / 16 Hold / 1 Sell / 0 Strong Sell -> HOLD - Median 12-month price target: $195.00 USD (range $158 - $215) THESIS RBC is Canada's largest bank, earning a high-teens return on equity with a strong 13.5% CET1 capital ratio, diversified business lines spanning Canadian banking, wealth, capital markets and U.S. City National, and a credit book whose provisions are improving rather than deteriorating. Bull lever: Diluted EPS grew 27% year over year as provisions fell 36% and wealth, commercial and capital markets all posted double-digit gains; capital strength funded a 14% dividend increase and a new buyback of up to 45 million shares. Key risk: The stock has already run roughly 46% in a year to near its 52-week high and trades at the top of the big-bank range, leaving a thin margin of safety if the credit cycle turns. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: A - Earnings quality grade: A KEY METRICS - Q2 FY2026 (CAD unless noted) - Diluted EPS: C$3.86 (+27.0% YoY; a clean beat) - Net income: C$5.51B (+25% YoY) - Total revenue: C$33.93B (+4.2% YoY) - Return on equity: 17.2% (up from 14.2% a year ago) - CET1 capital ratio: 13.5% (well above the 11.5% regulatory floor) - Provisions for credit losses (PCL): C$912M (down 36% YoY) - Efficiency ratio: ~52% - Dividend raised 14% YoY plus a new buyback of up to 45 million shares - Dividend yield: ~2.5% (USD); stock up ~46% over the trailing year DISCLAIMER This is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in RY. #RY #RBC #RoyalBankofCanada #earnings #investing #stocks #ChargedAlpha #Banks #Dividend

NGL Stock: +416% Off Lows — Water Solutions Drives Permian Growth Q4 FY2026

NGL Energy Partners LP Q4 FY2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $17.17 - HOLD - BUY below $14.00 with $10.50 stop - AVOID above $21.00 TRIGGER: Leverage drops below 4.5x AND distribution reinstatement announced WINDOW: 12-18 months through FY2027 leverage confirmation TRACKER: chargedalpha.com/calls/NGL WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 0 Strong Buy / 0 Buy / 1 Hold / 0 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - HOLD - Median 12-month price target: $2.00 (range $2 - $2) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: ALIGNED THESIS NGL Energy Partners is a levered Permian water-infrastructure play whose Water Solutions segment - Permian produced-water disposal and treatment - is growing volumes double digits and improving EBITDA. The unit has already repriced off a distressed low; the next leg requires either leverage below 4.5x or distribution reinstatement. Bull lever: If Permian rig activity holds and NGL hits sub-4.5x leverage by end of FY2027, the unit could re-rate toward midstream peer multiples - at 3x EV-to-Sales the unit would imply a multiple of current prices. The distribution reinstatement would add income buyers. Key risk: With leverage at 5.8x, any disruption to Permian activity, a debt-market dislocation, or slower-than-expected EBITDA growth could pressure the balance sheet. Distribution remains suspended and K-1 tax complexity limits the MLP's institutional and retail investor universe. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: B (Executing a difficult multi-year turnaround - distribution suspension was painful but the deleveraging plan is proceeding and Water Solutions growth validates the core thesis. Credibility has been rebuilt quarter by quarter.) - Earnings quality grade: B- (GAAP earnings are heavily impacted by non-cash items and preferred-unit accounting; adjusted EBITDA is the relevant metric. Operating cash flow conversion is strong but GAAP losses obscure the underlying cash generation.) CHAPTERS 0:00 Hook 0:14 Year In One Chart 0:42 The Print 1:27 Beat Decomposition 1:48 The Trend 2:43 The Business 3:35 The FCF Bridge 4:17 Margin Quality 4:50 Guidance & The Narrative Diff 5:41 Catalyst Calendar 6:17 Peer Dot-Plot 6:45 Valuation Triangle 7:09 Management & Earnings Quality 7:46 The Call - Verdict (price-aware + consensus) 8:30 The Call - Supporting Evidence 9:07 Disclosure KEY METRICS - Q4 FY2026 - Revenue: $0.95B (YoY -2.2%) - EPS: $157.40 (vs $151.00 est, beat +4.2%) - Operating margin: 8.8% - Free cash flow (seasonal Q1): $94.1M (9.9% margin) NGL Energy Partners LP reported Q4 and full-year FY2026 results (fiscal year ending March 2026) on May 28, 2026. The unit has surged over 400 percent off its 52-week low of $3.32 as investors have repriced the deleveraging and Water Solutions growth story. Full-year revenue declined from $3.47B to $3.16B due to the strategic wind-down of low-margin Liquids Logistics commodity trading. Full-year adjusted EBITDA improved to approximately $646M. Water Solutions - Permian produced-water disposal, treatment and recycling - grew volumes double digits year over year and now represents roughly 48% of segment EBITDA. Q4 GAAP net loss was $326M, almost entirely from non-cash preferred-unit redemption charges and asset impairments. Q4 operating cash flow was $126M and free cash flow was $94M. The company executed over $100M of non-core asset sales in FY2026. Management targets sub-4.5x leverage by end of FY2027 and has signaled eventual distribution reinstatement contingent on hitting that leverage target. MLP unitholders receive K-1 tax forms - a complexity factor for individual investors. NARRATIVE DIFF - what changed in management tone - Prior call: "We remain committed to our deleveraging roadmap. The Water Solutions segment continues to gain share in the Permian basin and we expect volume growth to accelerate through the second half of fiscal 2026." - This call: "Our fiscal year 2026 results demonstrate the strength of our Water Solutions franchise. Permian volumes grew double digits year over year and adjusted EBITDA improved. We are on track with our asset monetization program and continue to make progress toward our leverage target and the eventual reinstatement of distributions." - Tone shift: Tone firmed from cautious progress to confirmed delivery. Management declared the Water Solutions growth thesis validated by double-digit volume growth, pointed to the asset-sale pipeline as a concrete deleveraging accelerant, and for the first time explicitly referenced distribution reinstatement as an 'eventual' but on-track goal - a meaningful signal shift for income-focused MLP investors. DATA SOURCES - FMP (financialmodelingprep.com) - NGL Energy Partners LP Q4 FY2026 press release + earnings call DISCLAIMER This is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in NGL. Do your own research before any investment decision. #NGL #NGLEnergyPartnersLP #earnings #investing #stocks #ChargedAlpha

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RY Stock: HOLD Call - EPS Up 27% YoY After 46% Run Q2 FY2026

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