The SpaceX IPO Is Coming at an Extremely Stretched Valuation | Bagholder

Broadcom and CrowdStrike Sell Off After Earnings: Is a Financial Stocks Rotation Next?

Broadcom is down 14% after earnings despite reporting 48% year over year revenue growth and guiding for 84% growth next quarter. CrowdStrike dropped 10% on a strong beat that simply was not strong enough given how far the stock had run. This morning I give my honest take on both prints and whether the selloff makes any sense. I also cover my latest Substack post on why the deal makers on Wall Street, Goldman Sachs up 73% and Morgan Stanley up 63% over the past year, have done all the heavy lifting in financials while the lenders are still waiting. The question I am asking today is whether this summer sets up a broader financial stocks renaissance driven by M&A, deregulation, the yield curve finally uninverting, and the SpaceX and Anthropic IPOs on the horizon. It is the least likely thing most people are thinking about right now, which is exactly why it might happen. I also touch on American Express, Bill Ackman's appearance on the All-In podcast, and what Broadcom's Hock Tan actually said about AI disruption in software. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com [https://rigatonicapital.substack.com] Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #Broadcom #AVGO #CrowdStrike #CRWD #GoldmanSachs #GS #MorganStanley #MS #AmericanExpress #AXP #Financials #XLF #BillAckman #SpaceX #IPO #Anthropic #stockanalysis #marketwatch #RigatoniCapital $AVGO $CRWD $GS $MS $AXP $JPM $XLF $QQQ $PLTR

Oil Back at $97, Palo Alto Beats, and Are Boring Stocks the Next Trade?

Oil is back near $97 a barrel as US-Iran tensions flare up again. Palo Alto reported last night and beat on revenue with 31% year over year growth, though a GAAP net loss from non-cash acquisition charges is creating noise in the headlines. Tonight is a big one with Broadcom, CrowdStrike, and Veeva all reporting after the close. I also revisit the Alphabet $80 billion equity raise and why Greg Abel's $10 billion commitment at a discount is starting to feel less like a red flag and more like Berkshire making its AI partner official. I close with a genuinely interesting question from the Wall Street Journal this morning: are boring stocks due for a comeback? Financials, consumer staples, and energy are all worth watching if tech and semis take a breather here, and I walk through how I am thinking about that rotation. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com [https://rigatonicapital.substack.com] Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #PaloAlto #PANW #Broadcom #AVGO #CrowdStrike #CRWD #Google #Alphabet #GOOGL #Berkshire #BRK #OilPrices #Iran #Financials #XLF #EliLilly #LLY #stockanalysis #marketwatch #RigatoniCapital $PANW $AVGO $CRWD $GOOGL $BRK.B $LLY $GS $JPM $QQQ $XLF

Is Google's $80 Billion Equity Raise a Sign of Strength or Desperation?

Alphabet announced last night it is raising $80 billion in equity to fund its AI CapEx buildout. That includes a $40 billion at the market offering, $30 billion in convertible preferred stock, and a $10 billion private placement with Berkshire Hathaway at a meaningful discount to the closing price. This morning I walk through what this actually means, why the bulk of the proceeds are not going directly to AI infrastructure but rather to employee equity tax obligations, and why it all comes from the same pot regardless. I also give my take on what Greg Abel's decision to partner with Alphabet tells us about where Berkshire sees the AI trade going. And I close with Tom Lee's bull case on why the US is becoming the compute exporter for the entire world, and why that framing actually makes the hyperscaler CapEx story make a lot more sense. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com [https://rigatonicapital.substack.com] Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #Google #Alphabet #GOOGL #Berkshire #BRK #GregAbel #AICapEx #Hyperscalers #SpaceX #IPO #TomLee #Nvidia #NVDA #Palantir #PLTR #SaaSsummer #stockanalysis #marketwatch #RigatoniCapital $GOOGL $BRK.B $NVDA $PLTR $APP $QQQ $DELL $HPE

Why I Added This Biotech Stock to My Watchlist

I spent the weekend researching Eli Lilly and wrote a post on Substack about why I added it to my watchlist. I am not a biotech expert, I cannot read a phase three trial, and this is not my natural habitat as an investor. But when you see a one trillion dollar company growing sales revenue 56% year over year with 45% operating margins that look more like a software business than a pharma company, it gets your attention. I walk through my thought process on the stock, the GLP-1 story, the AI drug discovery angle, the Nvidia connection, and why I think the right entry point matters more than chasing it here. I also touch on the software rotation that is quietly happening right now, with IGV outperforming the SOX over the last 28 days, and what that means for bears who are short AI names like Palantir. Big earnings week ahead with Palo Alto, Broadcom, and CrowdStrike all reporting. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com [https://rigatonicapital.substack.com] Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #EliLilly #LLY #Biotech #Pharma #GLP1 #AIDisruption #SoftwareStocks #IGV #Palantir #PLTR #AppLovin #APP #Broadcom #AVGO #CrowdStrike #CRWD #PaloAlto #PANW #stockanalysis #marketwatch #RigatoniCapital $LLY $PLTR $APP $AVGO $CRWD $PANW $QQQ $IGV

Snowflake Sparks a Software Rally and What I Learned from Dan Loeb This Week

Snowflake reported an extraordinary quarter and the software sector is responding. Palantir was up 10% yesterday, AppLovin crossed $600 a share, Dell surged 30%, and even Salesforce turned green. This morning I ask the question: is this the turning point in the AI Disruption narrative for software stocks, or just a normal bounce in a longer bear market? Snowflake's Cortex Code AI agent and their $6 billion AWS commitment may have been the last example investors needed before sentiment shifted. I also go through what I took away from Dan Loeb's appearance on the Invest Like The Best podcast this week, including his view that Nvidia at 15 times 2027 earnings is still one of the most attractive setups in the market, why the hyperscaler CapEx story is nothing like the dot-com bubble, and what he thinks makes a great analyst today versus 20 years ago. I also touch on Caterpillar, TransDigm, Costco, and the Union Pacific merger situation. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com [https://rigatonicapital.substack.com] Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #Snowflake #SNOW #DanLoeb #ThirdPoint #SoftwareStocks #AIDisruption #Palantir #PLTR #AppLovin #APP #Dell #DELL #Nvidia #NVDA #Caterpillar #CAT #TransDigm #TDG #Costco #COST #IGV #stockanalysis #marketwatch #RigatoniCapital $SNOW $PLTR $APP $NVDA $CAT $TDG $COST $DELL $QQQ $IGV