Turtle Talk Podcast - Episode 11: FX Arbitrage, Regime Change, and the Return of Classic Trend

Turtle Talk Episode 12 – Just the Turtles: February Review, Energy Breakouts & Myth Busting

Join Rich Brennan, Jerry Parker, and Adam Havryliv for Episode 12 of Turtle Talk — no guests this month, just the three turtles going deep. February was another outstanding month for classic trend followers, but March has thrown a few spanners in the works. The guys unpack what's really driving performance, where the next big opportunities might be hiding, and take aim at some of the most persistent myths in the trend following space. In this episode: 📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – February 2026 Review All trend following benchmarks delivered strong February results. Classic Trend Index up 5.3% for the month, 14.6% over the last quarter, and 10.5% year to date — continuing to separate from the pack. A discussion on log-scale charting and what the February results really tell us (and don't tell us) about what comes next. 👉 Full report: https://www.aussieturtles.com [https://www.aussieturtles.com] 📈 What's Moved the Needle Jerry spotlights aluminium and bean oil — two markets showing that the opportunity set extends well beyond precious metals. Adam dives into the dramatic divergence between European and US natural gas, and the explosive breakout in Brent crude toward $114. A timely reminder that correlation is fragile when supply chains are under stress. 🐢 Turtle Tidbits – Deep Dives Two meaty topics from Jerry and Adam: * Jerry on diversification: Why the classic trend follower's goal isn't to smooth volatility — it's to maximise the chance of catching outliers. The case for trading more markets, not fewer, even when they appear correlated. * Adam on Trend Following vs. Passive Long Equity: Equity valuations are flashing red across every metric. With energy prices exploding and a potential regime shift underway, Adam makes the case for why the next several years could be very painful for passive index investors — and very rewarding for trend followers. 🔍 Myth Busters Jerry tackles two of the biggest misconceptions in the space: * The diversification myth: For classic trend followers, diversification isn't about lowering volatility — it's about outlier hunting across as many markets as possible. * The ATR myth: Richard Dennis used ATR to normalise position sizing on entry. The idea of continuously resizing winning positions to smooth the equity curve? That came later — and it costs you the very outliers that define classic trend following. 📘 The Fractals of Finance Rich's book is available now on Amazon in Kindle, paperback, and hardcover. Search Fractals of Finance or Rich Brennan. If you've read it, a short review goes a long way. 👉 https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK [https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK] 📩 Send your Shell Mail questions: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact [https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact] No episode in April — Rich and Adam are heading to the Malay Archipelago. Back in May, refreshed and ready. Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you.

Turtle Talk Podcast - Episode 11: FX Arbitrage, Regime Change, and the Return of Classic Trend

Join Rich Brennan, Jerry Parker, and Adam Havryliv for Episode 11 of Turtle Talk with special guest Sanjeev Lakhanpal, co-founder of Horizon3 Investment Management. 📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – January 2026 All seven benchmarks rallied in unison. Classic Trend and BTOP50 shared the lead at +5.0%, with dispersion compressing to just 1.1%. Classic Trend surpasses 140% cumulative since January 2020 with a 15.5% CAGR. 👉 Full report: https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-january-2026/ [https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-january-2026/] 📈 What's Moved the Needle Metals dominate as Jerry walks through gold, silver, platinum, palladium and tin — including the brutal end-of-January sell-off. A passionate debate on vol-weighting vs loose pants, why cutting winners to improve Sharpe is a trap, and why one trade doesn't define a system. Adam brings cocoa's bear trend and Bitcoin's breakdown. Mulvaney's extraordinary January (+26%, reportedly 72% intra-month) sparks a discussion on convexity and why you can't replicate his CAGR by leveraging a smooth equity curve. 🎙 Spotlight – Sanjeev Lakhanpal (Horizon3 Investment Management) Sanj shares his journey from physics to AHL's trading desk running billions, working with David Beach — "the greatest trader no one's written a book about" — and the six-year quest to automate Beach's pattern recognition. He explains how Digital Signal Processing extracts diversified signals from price data and then reveals Horizon3's new FX Swap Arbitrage program: a market-neutral strategy exploiting structural swap rate differentials between brokers, averaging over 2% monthly with no losing months. He explains why the opportunity won't be arbitraged away and how it creates a 20-25% return cushion beneath the CTA. Contact Sanj: sanj@h3im.com [sanj@h3im.com] | www.h3im.com [http://www.h3im.com] 📬 Shell Mail Two questions from Lee: handling opposing signals under US FIFO rules (net at the portfolio level), and managing multi-currency balances as a global investor — including Adam's advice: go live where your profits are. 📘 The Fractals of Finance Rich shares why he wrote this book — a lifetime searching for certainty, finding trend following, and discovering the geometry beneath markets. With a foreword by Jerry Parker. Available in Kindle, paperback, and hardcover. 👉 Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK [https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK] 🌐 Resources Report: https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-january-2026/ [https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-january-2026/] Horizon3: www.h3im.com [http://www.h3im.com] | sanj@h3im.com [sanj@h3im.com] Book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK [https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK] Questions: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact [https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact] Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you.

Turtle Talk Podcast – Episode 010: Stocks, Outliers, and the Geometry of Trend

Join Rich Brennan and Jerry Parker for Episode 10 of Turtle Talk, joined by special guest Cole Wilcox, CIO of Longboard Asset Management. No Adam this month, but a deep, wide-ranging conversation covering classic trend following, equity outliers, diversification myths, and why individual stocks may offer the cleanest expression of trend. In this episode: 📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – December 2025 Review Classic Trend continues to separate from the pack, reaching new high-water marks while much of the CTA universe still lags prior peaks. We unpack dispersion, convexity, and why classic designs thrive when genuine trends emerge. 👉 Full report: https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-december-2025/ [https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-december-2025/] 📈 What’s Moved the Needle Gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and livestock trends take centre stage as multi-sigma moves remind traders where returns are actually made. The discussion cuts through daily noise to focus on long-horizon positioning, unrealised profits, and why parabolic moves signal fragility, not opportunity. 🎙 Spotlight Conversation – Cole Wilcox (Longboard Asset Management) A deep dive into equity trend following at the individual stock level. Cole explains: * Why most stock market returns come from a tiny minority of companies * Why indices dilute trend signals * How trend following stocks differs structurally from futures-based CTAs * Why long-duration trends, not activity, drive compounding * The case for absolute momentum over cross-sectional rotation A rare, first-principles discussion on outliers, capitalism, and why trend following belongs inside equities. Learn more about Cole’s work: https://longboardfunds.com/ [https://longboardfunds.com/] 📘 Feature Highlight – The Fractals of Finance Rich introduces his latest book, The Fractals of Finance, now available on Amazon, with a foreword by Jerry Parker. The book explores why markets are fractal, why averages mislead, and why trend following works because of structure, not prediction. 👉 Available now on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK [https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK] 🌐 Episode Resources * Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – December 2025 https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-december-2025/ [https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-december-2025/] * Longboard Asset Management https://longboardfunds.com/ [https://longboardfunds.com/] * The Fractals of Finance (Amazon) https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK [https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK] 📩 Send questions for future episodes: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact [https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact] Closing Thought Markets are producing moves no backtest prepared us for. Outliers are no longer rare. Systems matter. Process matters. And survival still comes before prediction. Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you.

Turtle Talk Podcast – Episode 009: Outliers, Crises, and the Geometry of Trend

Join Rich Brennan, Adam Havryliv, and Jerry Parker for a packed end of year episode of Turtle Talk. No guests this time, just the three of us digging into markets, exploring deep structural ideas, and sharing fresh insights from the worlds of trend following, diversification, and outlier hunting. This one is full of charts, data, lived experience, and a few laughs along the way. In this episode: 📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – October 2025 Review Classic Trend Index edges back into positive territory for the year. We walk through the latest numbers, the recovery from the mid year drawdown, and why outlier oriented programs continue to pull away from their higher Sharpe peers. 📈 What’s Moved the Needle Violent retracements in precious metals, deep reversals in cattle, and cycle high yields in the Japanese bond market. Jerry, Adam, and Rich break down the charts and discuss why trading through the noise requires loose pants, strong rules, and zero emotion. 🐢 Extended Turtle Tidbits A four part deep dive featuring: • Why Outlier Hunters Win Across Full Cycles, including calm world vs rough world dynamics and the geometry of compounding • One Hundred and Twenty Five Years of Crisis, and what history reveals about market structure, drawdowns, and fat tails • Diversification for Outlier Hunting, and why classic trend followers play a different game • Is Trend Following an Infinite Money Glitch, and what truly drives long term robustness 💬 Shell Mail (Q&A) Listener questions on stability, fragility, valuation extremes, diversification, and how to think about trend following when markets appear to be defying gravity. 🌐 Episode Resources Classic Trend Index: https://classictrendindex.com [https://classictrendindex.com] Aussie Turtles: https://www.aussieturtles.com [https://www.aussieturtles.com] ATS Trading Solutions: https://atstradingsolutions.com [https://atstradingsolutions.com] Send your questions: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact [https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact] As our final episode for 2025, we want to thank every listener, supporter, and fellow trend follower who has joined us this year. From the three of us at Aussie Turtles, we wish you a very happy Christmas and a great New Year. We look forward to seeing you again when Turtle Talk returns in January. #TurtleTalk #TrendFollowing #OutlierHunter #AussieTurtles #SystematicTrading #JerryParker #CTA #MarketStructure

Turtle Talk Podcast – Episode 008: Battle of the Trends, Pyramids, and Outlier Hunting

Join Rich Brennan, Adam Havryliv, and Jerry Parker for another deep dive into the world of systematic trend following. No guests this month – just the three of us exploring markets, myth-busting, and celebrating the launch of our new book The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide. In this episode: 📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – September 2025 Review Trend followers surge back to strength as Classic Trend Index posts another standout month. We unpack what’s driving performance across the CTA landscape. 📈 What’s Moved the Needle Gold, Silver, and Platinum shake up the metals space while U.S. equities continue their relentless climb. Jerry shares how short-side stock trends and broad diversification keep portfolios robust. 🔍 MythBusters – Did the Turtles Pyramid? Jerry sets the record straight on one of the most persistent Turtle myths, explaining why spacing isn’t pyramiding and how disciplined risk sizing separates longevity from luck. 💡 Feature Spotlight – The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide Jerry flips the script and interviews Rich and Adam about their new book, the philosophy behind Outlier Hunting, and why mindset comes before mechanics in systematic trading. 💬 Shell Mail (Q&A) Listener questions on volatility targeting, fragility in trends, and how to think about robustness when markets compress. 🌐 Episode Resources: * Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – September 2025: https://classictrendindex.com [https://classictrendindex.com] * The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide (book): https://www.aussieturtles.com [https://www.aussieturtles.com] 📩 Send your questions for the next episode: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact [https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact] #TrendFollowing #TurtleTalk #SystematicTrading #AussieTurtles #OutlierHunter #JerryParker #Fractals #CTAPerformance #ClassicTrendIndex #VolatilityCompression