US equities: short-term pain, long-term gain?

Brexit, Burnham and Britain's Next Decade

Ten years after the Brexit referendum, many studies assess the effects on the UK economy as negative, pointing to weaker growth, lower investment and a tighter fiscal backdrop as its legacy. But the focus now is forward-looking. After Andy Burnham set out his 10-year economic vision centred on devolving more power to Britain’s cities and regions, the debate is shifting from what Brexit changed to what kind of economic model could define Britain’s next decade. Joining Patrick Coffey, UK Chief Economist Jack Meaning reviews the state of the UK economy today, including subdued growth, inflation that remains close to 3%,and the limited room any future Chancellor has on borrowing, tax and spending. They examine whether greater devolution could support stronger growth and identify potential policy changes investors should watch. They also highlight why the UK’s underlying fundamentals may be stronger than market sentiment often suggests. This episode was recorded on Monday 29 June at 3pm British Summer Time. Listeners can hear more related to this topic: -Decoding the bond sell-off [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/decoding-the-bond-sell-off.html?cid=shownotes_podcast___2606BB38MR____] Clients can read more on Barclays Live: -First Look: Burnham speech [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a425ca16e7bb564fdcc96c2] -UK – 10 years after Brexit [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a3aafc08461036122b935a8] -Making Sense of Makerfield [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a20ade0416aff3e6e2663d0&restriction=DEBT] Important Content Disclosures [https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-content-disclosures.html]

Can football fever lift the economy?

The World Cup has kicked off across North America in its largest and most geographically dispersed format yet. This year, the tournament expands to 48 teams (up from 32 in 2022), 104 matches (vs. 64) and 16 host cities across the US, Canada and Mexico. The scale is set to drive a surge of visitors, viewership and national pride, but the economic payoff may be short-lived. In this episode of Barclays Brief, Ronnie Wexler, Global Head of Equities Distribution, sits down with Pooja Sriram, Senior US Economist, to discuss the tournament’s economic implications for host countries, how viewership could translate into value, which sectors stand to benefit most and why demand looks uneven. Listeners can hear more related to this topic: * Prediction markets: a new market signal [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/prediction-markets-a-new-market-signal.html] * Jet fuel shortage: Holidays at risk? [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/jet-fuel-shortage-holidays-at-risk.html] Clients can read more on Barclays Live: * World Cup 2026: Viewership drives value [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a22144bce1e9b0296a958a6] * Cupflation: The World Cup effect on prices [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP696963ad726de568d97310b6] * ¡Goool! World Cup Day 1 [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a2be11dc566bc2d2b65c464] Important Content Disclosures [https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-content-disclosures.html] Important Non-Research Content Disclosures [https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-nonresearch-content-disclosures.html]

The rise of the consumer health economy

Consumer health is undergoing a structural shift, moving beyond traditional treatment and becoming embedded in everyday spending. Where consumers were once focused on curing illness, they are increasingly aiming for prevention, with demand extending across categories from supplements and sports nutrition to oral health and functional foods. In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Warren Ackerman, Head of European Consumer Staples Research, to explore how this shift in consumer behaviour is reshaping the industry. They discuss how the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated consumer interest in self-care, driving sustained demand for health-related products and increasing the role of e-commerce in the category. The conversation also examines where growth is emerging today, from increased spend in established categories to new areas supported by advancing science, as well as how these trends differ across developed and emerging markets. They explore how the industry is evolving as it becomes more consumer-led, and where the next opportunities lie, including e-commerce and more personalised health solutions. Clients can read more on Barclays Live: * The Future of Consumer Health: Growing Pains [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FS6a266d2663e94e2126cb1eb2] * Consumer Health: The leaders and laggards [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a28d0f4fdb9b503f72cd3b3] * India Consumer Health: The next battleground [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a2b772c53e5150d1c8d3a60] Listeners can also hear more episodes on this topic: * Weight loss drugs: Scaling‑up [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/weight-loss-drugs-scaling-up.html] Important Content Disclosures [https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-content-disclosures.html]

US equities: short-term pain, long-term gain?

US equities have delivered strong gains year-to-date, despite a challenging macro backdrop, but that momentum is beginning to look less secure. While fundamentals remain supportive, the near‑term setup is becoming more stretched. In this episode of Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Alex Altman, Head of Equity Tactical Strategies in our Markets division, to break down his shift to a short-term tactically cautious view. They discuss how the balance of risks has begun to shift, with elevated euphoria and crowded positioning — particularly in AI‑linked momentum trades — leaving markets more exposed if that positioning unwinds. At the same time, higher real yields are starting to weigh on valuations, making the forward return profile less compelling, despite resilient earnings and macro data. They also examine equity supply, with a growing pipeline of IPOs and broader issuance adding complexity to the near‑term outlook. Taken together, these dynamics point to a more fragile setup. Patrick and Alex explore how the market may evolve and what role a pullback could play in resetting the current environment. Clients can read more on Barclays Live: * The Global Volatility Pulse: Macro stumble, technical reset [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a2776c147fee46ec57030b7] * Equity Market Review: Shaky momentum, nascent rotation [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a225b04dd99b05a72e17781] * U.S. Equity-Linked Strategies: AI Capex Funding: Why Equity? Why Converts? [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a26da1a53e5150d1c8b0384] Listeners can also hear more episodes on this topic: * The Fed's next move [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/inflation-crosscurrents-energy-vs-ai.html] * The cusp of a capex supercycle [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/the-cusp-of-a-capex-supercycle.html] * A bullish view on US equities [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/a-bullish-view-on-US-equities.html] Important Content Disclosures [https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-content-disclosures.html] Important Non-Research Content Disclosures [https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-nonresearch-content-disclosures.html]

The Fed’s next move

The path for US interest rates has shifted sharply in recent months, as markets move from pricing rate cuts to pricing a potential hike. In this episode, Ronnie Wexler sits down with Barclays’ Chief US Economist Marc Giannoni to look at what’s driving that shift. At the centre of the discussion is inflation. While headline inflation has been pushed higher by rising energy prices driven by the Iran war, the key question for new Fed chair Kevin Warsh is whether those pressures feed through into core inflation and ultimately shift longer-term expectations. That, Giannoni argues, is what could determine the Fed’s next move. The conversation also turns to the US consumer. Slowing real income growth, higher gasoline prices and a cooling labour market are starting to weigh on household spending, raising questions about how resilient demand can remain. Whilst these pressures could drive consumer spending down, the US consumer has surprised to the upside many times before according to Giannoni. So what should investors watch next? From inflation prints to consumer behaviour, listen to learn which signals could shape the Fed’s policy path in the months ahead. Clients can read more on Barclays Live: * Waiting for the deal [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a19cd424d84c460f403d1c5] * What would trigger a 2026 Fed hike? [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a07867d2e2d9364ae36659e] * Consumers feeling the strain [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a1a172bc28b864fbcc150d1] * April consumer spending moderating amid faltering income [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a1868b763b4ad06c37643b9] Listeners can also hear more episodes on this topic: * Inflation crosscurrents: Energy vs AI [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/inflation-crosscurrents-energy-vs-ai.html?cid=shownotes_podcast___2606BB34MR____] * Decoding the bond sell-off [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/decoding-the-bond-sell-off.html?cid=shownotes_podcast___2606BB34MR____] * Do high gas prices change how Americans buy cars? [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/the-flip-side-podcast/do-high-gas-prices-change-how-americans-buy-cars.html?cid=shownotes_podcast___2606BB34MR____] Important Content Disclosures [https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-content-disclosures.html] Important Non-Research Content Disclosures [https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-nonresearch-content-disclosures.html]