Black Swan Opportunities

Resurrections

The magical nature of energy can turn what appears to be a coffin into a chrysalis. Putting aside conventional definitions, today we’re looking at energy as the phenomenon of ongoing movement and repose throughout the universe that can appear mathematical and magical, subtle and cataclysmic, practical and fractal, but always transformational.

Nationwide Emergency Alert System — A Faltering Sense of Security

Today, October 4th, at about 2:20 pm EDT, the U.S. government is conducting a test of the Nationwide Emergency Alert System (NEAS). Here is a list of the communication methods the system will use to communicate to everyone about a national threat. The first is … electronic…. Okay, that completes the list of all the communications methods for the Emergency Alert System. In this episode, we’ll be looking at the effectiveness of the NEAS in warning us of two specific catastrophic Black Swan events.

Asteroid Paper Scissors

This morning, at 8:52 am, Mountain Daylight Time, 250-grams of Asteroid Bennu struck Earth in the Great Salt Lake Desert … at a speed of approximately 11 miles per hour. No crater was formed by its impact. In this SPECIAL episode, we’ll go deeper into asteroids as potential Black Swans.  As part of my situational awareness practice, I was scanning the news headlines early this morning and got hooked by a headline about how NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission “will stop the Asteroid Bennu from shattering Earth" … in 160 years. Sometimes scanning the news is like walking the floor of a gambling casino. I should have kept walking this morning, but I stopped and put a quarter in the Asteroid Bennu machine.

Black Swan Opportunities

I’m thrilled to introduce the topic of Positive Black Swans, also known as Black Swan Opportunities.  Given that Black Swans are rare, unexpected, and unpredictable, we benefit by having a so-called healthy fear of the negative ones to help break us out of our usual daydream bubble of a mostly calm and predictable daily life.   We commonly refer to positive unexpected events and situations as opportunities. In fact, Taleb talks quite a bit about such opportunities, what he calls Positive Black Swans.  He writes, "Seize any opportunity or anything that looks like opportunity. They are rare, much rarer than you think." Now, Nassim Taleb is not the only smart and wealthy guy who believes and advocates this strategy.  Warren Buffett developed 7 rules of investing. Rule Number 7 is: “Big opportunities have to be seized. You have to grab them when they come because you’re not going to get 500 great opportunities.”

Petite, Gorgeous and to Die For

It’s been a rough summer. As we count down the waning days of summer post-Labor Day, perhaps what we need is a relaxing day at the beach. The rhythm of the waves breaking, the cry of gulls overhead, children laughing as they run in the surf. Who knows, perhaps we’ll even spot some petite, gorgeous, to-die-for creature relaxing on the sand. In this episode, we’ll turn our eyes and thoughts to such rare and exquisite beauties. And the rare and exotic creatures I’m talking about are Black Swans — of course! Only they don’t look like a swan at all. And that can be a BIG problem.