Start Up Funding and Maturing Economies

Tech, Space X and the Hype Bubble Economy

“The temperature’s rising, it isn’t surprising, it’s too damn hot.” Are we about to have an Emperor’s New Clothes moment and a return to sane AI valuations? The Tech markets create enormous real value and growth across economies, but like every other bubble in financial history they are hyped to high heaven. In the short run there is money to be made playing the game. In the long run; what is real and what is not matters. The trick is to exit the short-term game before the long run outcomes are apparent to everyone. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Start Up Funding and Maturing Economies

"To move a mountain, start with the smaller stones…” The success and depth of US capital markets to finance entrepreneurs and successive tech revolutions has been extraordinary – fuelling the exceptionalism of the US economy. In contrast, the UK is more risk adverse towards start-up opportunities. That’s largely cultural, a reflection of the more mature, later-stage British Economy. What will happen when the US economy is also past its top, and following the UK into maturity? It feels like a bit of a watch and wait kind of day. The streets are melting in the summer swelter – it’s simply too hot to go to London this morning. The SpaceX IPO has taken a spanking (exactly as predicted), the AI bubble and the debt financing required to make it happen looks poppy, and the market is still digesting the threat of Fed rate hikes. There are times when the best thing to do is simply stop, look and listen, and wonder about the bigger things. Thus, it was that I found myself thinking about the big film of the summer - The Odyssey – the ultimate “Journey” saga. Spoiler Alert: Wiley Odysseus, the King of sea-girt Ithaca, offends the Gods and is punished with 10-years of wandering the Mediterranean, undergoing multiple calamities, before he returns to his wife and (grown up) child, having lost his entire army and crew in the process (and fathering a couple of sons on the way, one of whom will inevitably slay his father in a case of mistaken identity years later.) Last week I was at an event hosted by Looking for Growth (“LFG”) in London, talking about how the UK could ease the funding journey for start-ups. I was there to back up the experience of two successful founders, Chloe Coleman of Vouchsafe and Ben Warner of Electric Twin, with some market context and history. They’ve both led their start-ups through successful funding rounds. (LFG is a cross-party campaign group seeking to reverse decline by promoting growth. They have the good sense to realise it’s as much a societal issue as a simple financing problem.) Today’s founders/entrepreneurs can face as terrible a journey as Odysseus to fund themselves. They have to overcome the barely coherent Cyclops of bureaucracy and regulation, the Giants of Risk Aversion,  the Enchantress sweetly asking them to sell out early or a Funder who transforms your lithe startup into wallowing swine, the lotus promises of money that never materialises, the Siren song of deep pocketed US private equity, and the Scylla or Charybdis of market bubbles and crashes. Even if founders get past the first peril; the definitional seed funding – it might not get any easier on subsequent funding rounds for growth capital if the cruel and pernicious market gods decide to abandon you. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Après Starmer, le rain-shower…?

“The king is dead. Long live the King.” Poor old Sir Keir Starmer. Wrong man in the wrong job. So much hope now squandered. But its important not to over-think or over-worry what comes next. In Gilts there is truth and the 10-year yield is still south of 5%. Andy Burnham needs to prove himself a leader and demonstrate ideas and action. Is that too much to ask?  There is little surprise that Sir Keir Starmer is now expected to resign - setting in motion a transfer of the UK premiership to Andy Burnham, the former Manchester mayor who won his way back into the Houses of Parliament last week. Starmer’s exit is being painted as proof that political instability is now built into the current UK political system - triggering a wall of worry among the commentariat about the Gilts Market and Sterling – what will the markets think of the seventh Premier in 16 years? Will the threat of increased borrowing and spending plans trigger market wobbles? And, how sustainable will the new government be? You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

G7, Brexit, Europe, Markets and Defence!

“After all, we’re all on the same team… aren’t we?” What is the point of the G7 meetings? The issues are clear: growth, defence, security and future threats – like the developing El-Nino. Instead, the leaders dance around the Orange Man, ignoring the fragmentation around them. If we are going to put Europe on track, we have to identify the problems and address them at root. Capital Markets and Defence are examples of where it’s gone wrong – and we have solutions! What were they really thinking about at the G7 Meeting? For some leaders it may have been a blessed relief to get away from mounting domestic political pressures. For others an opportunity for a brief spell in the reflected sunlight of the event – smiling as they demonstrated they had a seat at, or adjacent to, the table. (Adjacent – word of the decade – it means SFA.) For most their biggest fear would have been the challenge of dealing with Donald Trump. But it was an older, orange-er, heavier looking Trump who grumped over the event. He may be telling everyone he was the boss and he got what he wanted from Iran… but the most dangerous 4 words in politics are “doesn’t he look tired.” You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Margaret Thatcher’s wailing ghost stalks the land!

“I am extraordinarily patient, provided I get my own way in the end.” The Russians are deliberately provoking the UK in the English Channel – seeking to demonstrate that “Broken Britain” lacks the will, the resources and resilience to rebuild itself. The imminent Nationalisation of failing water utility Thames Water highlights how decisions made decades ago have had consequences that are costing the nation dear today.  Before getting into the main story on the Morning Porridge – the latest in the sorry tale of Thames Water - let me write about yesterday’s brazen intimidation of a British Yacht, the Bright Future, in foggy conditions in the English Channel yesterday. Regular readers will know I am a passionate sailor, and I’ve crossed the Channel many times in daylight, at night, in storms and in periods of calm, including foggy days. The fact there is practically nothing the UK can do to stop UK shipping being harassed by the Russians in our home waters is a consequence of the many years of neglect of our Armed Forces by successive governments. It’s another lesson in the consequences of bad policy and poor decisions. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!