Casual Inference

In this episode Lucy and Ellie dig into a recently publicized paper, "Vaccination and Neurodevelopmental Disorders: A Study of Nine-Year-Old Children Enrolled in Medicaid", which has gained attention after being promoted by RFK Jr. as evidence that vaccines cause autism.    Ellie breaks down her Substack critique of the study. Together, she and Lucy discuss the methodological flaws and what a better version of this study might look like.   * Vaccination and Neurodevelopmental Disorders: A Study of Nine-Year-Old Children Enrolled in Medicaid: https://publichealthpolicyjournal.com/vaccination-and-neurodevelopmental-disorders-a-study-of-nine-year-old-children-enrolled-in-medicaid/ [https://publichealthpolicyjournal.com/vaccination-and-neurodevelopmental-disorders-a-study-of-nine-year-old-children-enrolled-in-medicaid/] * RFK Jr is promoting a new study claiming "vaccines cause autism" but it doesn't add up. Literally [Ellie's substack]: https://epiellie.substack.com/p/rfk-jr-is-promoting-a-new-study-claiming [https://epiellie.substack.com/p/rfk-jr-is-promoting-a-new-study-claiming]   Follow along on Bluesky: * Ellie: @epiellie.bsky.social [https://bsky.app/profile/epiellie.bsky.social] * Lucy: @lucystats.bsky.social [https://bsky.app/profile/lucystats.bsky.social]   🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade [https://josephmcdade.com/music]. Edited by Cameron Bopp [http://cambopp.com/].

Vincent Arel-Bundock is a professor at the Université de Montréal, where he studies comparative and international political economy. * Vincent's website: https://arelbundock.com/ [https://arelbundock.com/] * Vincent's book "Model to Meaning: How to Interpret Statistical Models With marginaleffects for R and Python": https://marginaleffects.com/ [https://marginaleffects.com/]     Follow along on Bluesky: * Vincent: @vincentab.bsky.social [https://bsky.app/profile/vincentab.bsky.social] * Ellie: @epiellie.bsky.social [https://bsky.app/profile/epiellie.bsky.social] * Lucy: @lucystats.bsky.social [https://bsky.app/profile/lucystats.bsky.social]     🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade [https://josephmcdade.com/music]. Edited by Cameron Bopp [http://cambopp.com/].

Noah Greifer is a statistical consultant and programmer at Harvard University. Episode notes: * WeightIt package: https://ngreifer.github.io/WeightIt/ [https://ngreifer.github.io/WeightIt/] * MatchIt package: https://kosukeimai.github.io/MatchIt/ [https://kosukeimai.github.io/MatchIt/] * Noah's awesome Stack Exchange post: https://stats.stackexchange.com/a/544958 [https://stats.stackexchange.com/a/544958] Follow along on Bluesky: * Noah: @noahgreifer.bsky.social [https://bsky.app/profile/noahgreifer.bsky.social] * Ellie: @EpiEllie.bsky.social [https://bsky.app/profile/epiellie.bsky.social] * Lucy: @LucyStats.bsky.social [https://bsky.app/profile/lucystats.bsky.social] 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade [https://josephmcdade.com/music]. Edited by Cameron Bopp [http://cambopp.com/].

Lucy and Ellie chat about large language models, chat interfaces, and causal inference. * Do LLMs Act as Repositories of Causal Knowledge?: https://arxiv.org/html/2412.10635v1 [https://arxiv.org/html/2412.10635v1] Follow along on Twitter: * The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi [https://twitter.com/amjepi] * Ellie: @EpiEllie [https://twitter.com/epiellie] * Lucy: @LucyStats [https://twitter.com/lucystats] 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade [https://josephmcdade.com/music]. Edited by Cameron Bopp [http://cambopp.com/].

Lucy chats with Len Testa about a recent analysis he did which combined over 150 publicly available data sources to answer a question about the affordability of Disney World. * Len's Deep Dive Post on the Touring Plans Blog [Blog Post [https://touringplans.com/blog/how-much-disney-can-americas-middle-class-afford-in-2025/]] * Wall Street Journal Artcile, "Even Disney Is Worried About the High Cost of a Disney Vacation" [Article [https://www.wsj.com/business/disney-parks-price-hikes-consumers-0bf4dbd6]] Follow along on Bluesky: * Len: @lentesta.bsky.social [https://bsky.app/profile/lentesta.bsky.social] * Ellie: @EpiEllie.bsky.social [https://bsky.app/profile/epiellie.bsky.social] * Lucy: @LucyStats.bsky.social [https://bsky.app/profile/lucystats.bsky.social] 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade [https://josephmcdade.com/music]