GIS Stock: General Mills Yields 6.6% After a 30% Drop — Value Buy or Value Trap?

PSMT Stock: The ’Costco of Latin America’ Keeps Compounding — But Is It Too Expensive?

PriceSmart (PSMT) Q3 FY2026 — PriceSmart grew Q3 revenue 12.5% to ~$1.48B with comparable sales up 10.7%, but adjusted EPS of $1.28 landed just short of the ~$1.32 estimate and the stock — near an all-time high at ~37x earnings — dipped slightly. PriceSmart is the 'Costco of Latin America' — 57 membership warehouse clubs across 12 countries, a sticky membership annuity, a net-cash balance sheet, and a long unit-growth runway (now entering Chile). It's a genuinely wonderful business. But near an all-time high at ~37x earnings, our DCF lands around $150 vs the ~$189 price — so this is a great-business-at-a-rich-price HOLD. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, GREAT BUSINESS, RICH PRICE) — base-case value ~$150 vs ~$189 today. KEY METRICS: - Q3 FY26: total revenue $1,481.8M (+12.5%); net merchandise sales +12.5% (+8.5% constant currency) - Comparable merchandise sales +10.7% (+6.9% constant currency) — FX was a tailwind of ~3.8 pts - Net income $39.7M (+12.9%); GAAP diluted EPS $1.28 — a slight miss vs ~$1.32 consensus (revenue beat) - Operating income $65.6M (+16.7%); adjusted EBITDA $90.4M; membership income $25.7M (+17.6%) - 57 warehouse clubs in 12 countries; first-ever Chile club announced (spring 2027); pipeline to 63 clubs - Balance sheet: $200M+ cash + investments vs ~$183M debt (net cash); dividend yield <1%; self-funds growth - Valuation ~$189, ~37x earnings, near all-time highs (52-wk high ~$200); cheaper than Costco (~50x) - Owner-earnings DCF (base ~$165M, +4%/+6%, 8-10%): ~$150 fair value vs ~$189 price — a ~20% premium - Risks: emerging-market currency swings (double-edged), thin retail margins, a premium multiple near highs What to watch: constant-currency comparable sales (the real growth gauge), the pace of new club openings (including Chile), and the Latin American currency backdrop Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

LEVI Stock: Levi Strauss Beat and Raised Guidance — So Why Did It Drop 5%?

Levi Strauss (LEVI) Q2 FY2026 — Levi Strauss beat on Q2 sales (+8% to $1.56B) and adjusted EPS ($0.28, +27%), raised full-year guidance for the fourth straight time and hiked its dividend 14% — yet the stock fell ~5% because the raised EPS midpoint (~$1.49) landed just below the most bullish estimates after a near-double off the lows. Levi's has transformed into a DTC-led denim-lifestyle brand — direct-to-consumer is now 51% of revenue, gross margin is near record at 63%, and it just posted its fourth straight guidance raise. But after nearly doubling to ~$24 (near 52-week highs, ~16.5x forward), our DCF lands right at ~$25 fair value — so this is a quality-at-a-fair-price HOLD, not a bargain. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, FAIRLY VALUED) — base-case value ~$25 vs ~$24 today. KEY METRICS: - Q2 FY26: net revenue $1,562M (+8% reported, +6% organic); adjusted EPS $0.28 (+27%) — a clear beat - Gross margin 62.7% (near record, +10 bps); adjusted operating margin 9.0% (+70 bps) - DTC grew +11% and is now 51% of revenue (e-commerce +19%); wholesale +5% - Regions: Americas $815M (+9%), Asia +12% organic, Europe +4% (timing), Beyond Yoga +16% - H1 operating cash flow ~$482M (more than doubled); dividend raised 14% (~2.5% yield) + accelerated buyback - FY26 guidance RAISED (4th straight): revenue +7-7.5%, adjusted EPS $1.46-1.52; assumes 30% China tariffs - Valuation ~$24, ~16.5x forward P/E — fair for the quality, no longer a deep-value bargain (~$18 at the lows) - Owner-earnings DCF (base ~$560M, +2%/+4%, 8-10%): ~$25 fair value vs ~$24 price — essentially in line - Bear risks: stock doubled and near highs, full multiple, discretionary apparel, tariff + FX headwinds What to watch: the DTC / e-commerce growth rate (the margin engine), the gross margin under tariffs, and the pace of future guidance raises Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

HELE Stock: Helen of Troy Fell 80% and Beat Earnings — So Why Did It Drop 10%?

Helen of Troy (HELE) Q1 FY2027 — Helen of Troy — owner of OXO, Hydro Flask, Osprey and Vicks — grew Q1 sales +8% and beat a rock-bottom estimate, but adjusted EPS fell 58% to $0.17 and the stock dropped ~10% to ~$25, down over 80% from its peak. Helen of Troy trades at roughly 7x forward earnings after an 80%+ collapse — a portfolio of genuinely good brands wrapped in ~3.5x leverage, tariff exposure and a botched restructuring. Our DCF lands near $30 vs the ~$25 price, but adjusted earnings are still falling, so this is a deep-value HOLD, not a confident buy. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, CHEAP BUT UNPROVEN) — base-case value ~$30 vs ~$25 today. KEY METRICS: - Q1 FY27: net sales $402.1M (+8.2%, organic +7.4%); adjusted EPS $0.17 (down 58% YoY) — a beat on a low bar - GAAP EPS $1.51 was inflated ~$1.74 by a one-time facility-sale gain; adjusted operating margin just 4.0% - Adjusted EBITDA ~$25.5M (flat in dollars); gross margin 46.0% (-110 bps on tariffs/mix) - Segments: Home & Outdoor $194.9M (+9.5%, profit up); Beauty & Wellness $207.2M (+7%, profit -48%) - Balance sheet: ~$716M debt vs $22M cash; net leverage ~3.5x EBITDA; paid down $65M in the quarter - FY27 guidance: revenue RAISED to $1.76-1.83B, adjusted EPS HELD at $3.25-3.75 (tariffs eating the upside) - Valuation ~$25, ~7x forward P/E and ~6.5x EV/EBITDA vs 10-14x for a stable peer; pays no dividend - Owner-earnings DCF (base ~$85M FCF, -3%/+3%, 11-13%): ~$30 fair value; bear case (~$24) sits at the price - Bear risks: Project Pegasus restructuring shortfall + shareholder litigation, tariffs, soft discretionary demand, leverage What to watch: the adjusted operating margin (is the decline bottoming?), the net-leverage ratio (progress below 3x), and the tariff / refund picture Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

GIS Stock: General Mills Yields 6.6% After a 30% Drop — Value Buy or Value Trap?

General Mills (GIS) Q4 FY2026 — FY2026 net sales fell 5% (organic -2%) and adjusted EPS dropped 16% to $3.55 amid soft volumes, private label, and GLP-1 fears — and the stock has slid ~30% to ~$37, pushing the yield to ~6.6%. General Mills (Cheerios, Blue Buffalo, Betty Crocker) has been cut down to ~$37 (~10x earnings, ~6.6% covered yield) on real packaged-food headwinds. But the market is pricing perpetual ~3%/yr decline — and even a slowly declining GIS models above the price, with a growing pet business as a wildcard. THE CALL: BUY (3/5, VALUE & INCOME) — base-case value ~$45 vs ~$37 today. KEY METRICS: - Q4: net sales +1% to $4.6B (organic flat), adj EPS $0.95 (+27% cc — flattered by a 53rd week) - FY2026: net sales -5% to $18.4B (organic -2%); adjusted EPS $3.55 (-16% cc) - FY2027 plan: $3B cumulative cost savings by FY2030 ($750M in FY27) + innovation/renovation for the top line - Valuation ~$37, ~10x forward P/E; dividend ~$2.44/yr = ~6.6% yield, ~69% payout (covered) - Free cash flow ~$2.4B/yr; Blue Buffalo pet food is the key growth engine - Owner-earnings DCF (base ~$2.0B, -1%/+2%, 8-10%): ~$45 fair value; even the -1% decline case ≈ $43 (> price) - The market at ~10x is implicitly pricing a perpetual ~3%/yr decline - Key risk: GLP-1 weight-loss drugs + private label accelerating the secular volume decline What to watch: organic sales / volume trends (the secular gauge), the $3B cost-savings program + Blue Buffalo pet growth, and the dividend's coverage Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

FDS Stock: FactSet Got Cut in Half on AI Fears — Is This Wide-Moat Compounder a Buy?

FactSet (FDS) Q3 FY2026 — FactSet fell ~60% from its 2025 high (~$450) to ~$185 on AI-disruption fears — but Q3 revenue rose 6.4%, organic ASV grew 7.1%, EPS beat, and guidance was reaffirmed. FactSet is a wide-moat financial-data compounder (recurring ASV, ~34% margins, 27 straight years of dividend increases) that got de-rated from ~30x to ~15x on fears that AI kills the data terminal. The Q3 numbers refute imminent disruption — and the DCF lands ~$335 vs the ~$258 price. THE CALL: BUY (4/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$335 vs ~$258 today. KEY METRICS: - Q3 revenue $622.9M (+6.4%, organic +7.0%); adjusted EPS $4.53 (beat); free cash flow $254M (+11%) - Organic ASV +7.1% YoY to $2.48B (+$35.4M in the quarter) — the recurring base still growing - FY26 guidance reaffirmed: revenue $2.45-2.47B, adj op margin 34.0-35.5%, adj EPS $17.25-17.75 - Stock fell ~60% from ~$450 (2025) to ~$185 low on AI-disruption fears; now ~$258 (~43% below highs) - Valuation ~15x forward (vs ~28-30x 5-yr average and vs data peers ~30x); dividend raised 27 straight years - Owner-earnings DCF (base ~$600M, +6%/+9%, 8-10%): ~$335 fair value vs ~$258 price → ~30% upside - Peers (fwd P/E): S&P Global ~29x, MSCI ~30x, Moody's ~30x, FactSet ~15x - The one risk: AI/LLM disruption to the financial-data terminal model (unquantifiable) What to watch: organic ASV growth (the single best gauge of whether AI is biting), the AI narrative + any client churn, and a re-rating back toward the peer multiple Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.