Emad Mostaque Has A 50% P(Doom) & A Plan To Lower It

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Emad Mostaque helped kick off the modern AI revolution as the head of Stability AI, the company behind Stable Diffusion. Unlike most AI CEOs, he doesn't sugarcoat the risks of AGI development. He explains his 50% P(Doom), why we have less than 1,000 days to get our act together, and how his new startup, Intelligent Internet, aims to be a countervailing force against doom of all kinds. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:39 — Introducing Emad Mostaque 00:02:08 — How Emad Got Involved in AI Development 00:05:46 — The 60-Second Pitch for Intelligent Internet 00:09:29 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™ 00:13:32 — Why ASI Doesn’t Need Massive Compute 00:15:56 — AGI Timelines: Cognitive Labor Going to Zero 00:17:29 — Is There a Ceiling Above Human Intelligence? 00:41:22 — Corporations as Slow, Dumb AIs 00:50:19 — Emad’s Mainline Doom Scenario 00:55:28 — Jailbreaks and “Mecha-Hitler” Latent Spaces 00:59:56 — The Last Economy: How to Navigate Economic Doom 01:08:57 — The Coming Unemployment Spike 01:15:13 — Why Isn’t Google Stock Mooning? 01:25:05 — Intelligent Internet as a Solution: Bitcoin for the Intelligence Age 01:33:13 — Can an Aligned Network Stop a Rogue ASI? 01:36:20 — Is the Pause AI Proposal Too Late? 01:40:50 — Are We Facing Russian Roulette Odds with AI? 01:42:29 — Wrap-Up Links Emad Mostaque, The Last Economy (Amazon) — https://www.amazon.com/Last-Economy-Guide-Intelligent-Economics/dp/103693411X [https://www.amazon.com/Last-Economy-Guide-Intelligent-Economics/dp/103693411X] Intelligent Internet (ii.inc) —https://ii.inc [https://ii.inc] Emad Mostaque, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emad_Mostaque [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emad_Mostaque] Emad Mostaque on X — https://x.com/EMostaque [https://x.com/EMostaque]Pause Giant AI Experiments open letter (Future of Life Institute) — https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/ [https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/] Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com [https://doomdebates.com/] and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates [https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates], or to really take things to the next level: Donate [https://doomdebates.com/donate] 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe [https://lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Did Eliezer Yudkowsky Really Call for VIOLENCE? — Debate with John Alioto

My guest, John Alioto, is an independent AI engineer with a computer science degree from UC Berkeley and 25 years building real-world AI systems at companies like Microsoft and Google. In the wake of an attack on Sam Altman’s property, John Alioto came on the show to argue that Yudkowsky’s words are violent rhetoric that helped create this moment. Since I completely disagree with that characterization, we had a lot of fuel for a passionate debate. For the record, here’s my position on why AI doomers are NOT “calling for violence”: Are we acting like we actually think there’s an urgent extinction risk? Yes. Are we calling for lawless violence? Absolutely not. At least not me, or the leaders of the movement, or anyone I’ve ever personally interacted with. Are we calling for violence as a last resort if a government policy has been established and then egregiously violated? Yes… but that’s just standard for any governance proposal! A proposal for a strictly enforced treaty isn’t a call for violence — it’s a call for doing everything we can to make sure no one breaks the treaty, with zero violence, unless rogue actors decide to break the treaty and bring the consequences on themselves. Thanks to John for having an extremely respectful and good-faith debate on this heated subject. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:37 — Introducing John Alioto 00:03:02 — Setting the Stage: Recent Acts of Violence & AI Discourse 00:05:53 — Eliezer Yudkowsky's 2023 TIME Article 00:11:16 — John's Two-Part Argument 00:14:37 — Conditional on High P(Doom), Is Eliezer's Policy Bad? 00:17:46 — Be Like Carl Sagan — Win in the Arena of Ideas 00:21:12 — No Carve-Outs for Non-Signatories 00:26:15 — Hypothetical: What If the UN Voted for a Treaty? 00:30:46 — What's the Correct Interpretation of Eliezer's TIME Article? 00:32:42 — Liron's Interpretation: Same Structure as Any International Law Proposal 00:42:23 — What Should Eliezer Have Written? "Airstrikes" vs "Strong Deterrent" 00:49:57 — How John Would Rewrite the TIME Piece 00:50:54 — Carve-Outs: Allies, Civilians, Consequences 00:52:52 — Debate Wrap-Up 00:56:27 — Last Q: Does High P(Doom) Imply Violence? 00:59:40 — Closing Thoughts Links John P. Alioto on X (Twitter) — https://x.com/jpalioto [https://x.com/jpalioto] Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Pausing AI Developments Isn’t Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down” (Time Magazine, March 2023) — https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/ [https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/] Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com [https://doomdebates.com/] and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates [https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates], or to really take things to the next level: Donate [https://doomdebates.com/donate] 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe [https://lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

18. apr. 20261 h 1 min

Emad Mostaque Has A 50% P(Doom) & A Plan To Lower It

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