How Do I Project Growth for My $3M Brand?

47 Brands, $127M: What Really Worked on BFCM This Year

In this episode of The DTC Hotline, we unpack what actually happened during BFCM across 147 brands, representing $127M in revenue and $25M in media spend. We break down: * The macro story: 8–10% YoY growth, flat order volume, rising AOV, and the surge in BNPL * Why UGC video and 3–4x more creative output became the unlock in a post-Advantage+ world * The shock appearance of AppLovin as the #3 channel in our dataset * The “tight window” offer strategies that outperformed month-long promotions * How brands used novelty, micro-peaks, and parachute offers to rescue underperforming days * Hour-by-hour media pacing: why BFCM requires real-time decision making * Tactical stories from accounts that flipped their day by switching offers or duplicating campaigns * The emerging pattern: more spend, more creative, less fixed cost → the only way through 2025+ Plus: Luke and Tony give their unfiltered takes on Dubai, what felt surreal, and what they learned from meeting the accelerator team IRL. If you want the real BFCM insights—not recycled takes—this is the recap brands are using to plan 2025. Show Notes: * Explore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.com [https://www.prophitsystem.com] * The DTC Hotline mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us your eComm questions.

AppLovin’s Incrementality Is INSANE

AppLovin’s incrementality is way bigger than anyone expected, and in this episode of the DTC Hotline, we break down exactly why. With Black Friday/Cyber Monday right around the corner, brands are scrambling to understand whether AppLovin is a true “next-Meta” opportunity… or just hype. After running multiple incrementality tests across CTC’s client portfolio, the results are clear: this channel is creating more business value than the platform reports. In this episode, Richard, Tony, and Luke explain: * Why AppLovin is showing insane incremental lift * How scale compares to Meta, Snap, and Pinterest * The exact setup (pixel, feed, creative) you need right now * Why BFCM performance will look inflated — and what to do after * How to think about becoming an AppLovin advertiser in 2025 * The mindset shift brands need to win new channels If you’re considering AppLovin for BFCM or planning your 2025 media mix, this episode is your blueprint. Show Notes: * Whether you're running paid ads on Meta, Google, or TikTok, FERMÀT can help you increase your conversion rates without touching your website. https://www.fermatcommerce.com/ctc [https://www.fermatcommerce.com/ctc] * Explore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.com [https://www.prophitsystem.com] * The DTC Hotline mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us your eComm questions.

The Truth About Meta Performance Before Black Friday (Stop Pulling Spend!)

Everyone panics in early November… but your Meta ROAS isn’t actually broken, you’re just looking at the wrong numbers. In today’s episode of The DTC Hotline, we break down the real truth about Meta performance leading into Black Friday:why efficiency always looks terrible right now, how delayed attribution works, and why this is the single worst moment to pull back on spend. Tony, Luke, and Richard walk through: * The 7-day vs 28-day attribution gap most brands ignore * Why 80% of your value shows up late (and 20% shows up way later) * How to know if you should hold or adjust your spend * The BFCM offer structures that actually perform * Why Black Friday ALWAYS works — and why the winners keep spending If you’re feeling the November fear… Hold the line. Trust the data. Plant the seeds now. Got a burning eComm question? Call or text 866-DTC-2263 to get it answered on the show. Show Notes: * Whether you're running paid ads on Meta, Google, or TikTok, FERMÀT can help you increase your conversion rates without touching your website. https://www.fermat.com/ctc [https://www.fermat.com/ctc] * Explore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.com [https://www.prophitsystem.com] * The DTC Hotline mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us your eComm questions.

How Do I Project Growth for My $3M Brand?

Your brand’s doing $3M in revenue. You’re growing fast. But how do you actually project that growth for 2026, without guessing? In this episode of The DTC Hotline, we break down how to build a growth forecast like a $30M brand — using constraints, not wishful thinking. You’ll learn: * How to forecast growth when you’re in the $3M–$10M stage * The Spend-to-aMER model (and why it beats ROAS) * How to set profitability constraints before chasing scale * The difference between a $3M and $30M planning mindset * What most founders get wrong about forecasting for 2026 Got a burning eComm question? Call or text 866-DTC-2263 to get it answered on the show. Show Notes: * Whether you're running paid ads on Meta, Google, or TikTok, FERMÀT can help you increase your conversion rates without touching your website. https://www.fermat.com/ctc [https://www.fermat.com/ctc] * Explore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.com [https://www.prophitsystem.com] * The DTC Hotline mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us your eComm questions.

How to Set Up Your Meta Account for Black Friday Success

How should your Meta Ads account be structured to win this Black Friday and Cyber Monday? In this episode of The DTC Hotline, the CTC crew Richard, Tony, and Luke break down exactly how to set up your Meta account for BFCM success. You’ll learn: * The simplest campaign structure that maximizes performance during peak sales * When (and why) to use separate campaigns or bid caps * How to create a “phantom” highest-volume campaign ready to flip on when spend surges * The right budget pacing and time-zone settings for the BFCM weekend * Quick landing page, creative, and offer consistency tips that keep your Meta ecosystem tight * Whether you’re managing seven figure ad spend or just trying to get your setup right before Black Friday hits, this episode gives you a clear, tested roadmap straight from CTC’s media team. Show Notes: * Whether you're running paid ads on Meta, Google, or TikTok, FERMÀT can help you increase your conversion rates without touching your website. https://www.fermat.com/ctc [https://www.fermat.com/ctc] * Explore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.com [https://www.prophitsystem.com] * The DTC Hotline mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us your eComm questions.