Geographic Spotlight: Belarus

Geographic Spotlight: Belarus

Thursday, July 2, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: BELARUS. PRODUCTION OVERVIEW: Belarus produced ~25,000 bbl/d early 2026 (well below historical avg 33,650 bbl/d since 1993). Production reached 30-year high 2.013M metric tons 2025. Belorusneft targets 2.1M tons 2026, 2.3M tons by 2030 (supported by intensified drilling 100 wells planned, enhanced recovery technologies). RESERVES: 198M barrels as of 2025 (ranking ~57th globally; ~0.011% world total). HEAVY RELIANCE ON RUSSIA: Russia sole supplier crude oil/natural gas. Imports at preferential/political prices (gas ~$130/1000 m³ since 2018; oil linked to Urals with discounts). Provided Belarus substantial economic benefits (~$5.5B extra from 2022-2025 oil discounts). REFINING/PRODUCT EXPORTS: Belarus refines Russian crude, exports petroleum products. Growth expected in product transportation volumes. Some flows via Russian infrastructure (Ust-Luga port). GAS SUPPLY UNCERTAINTY: Late 2025/early 2026 Belarus lacked publicly confirmed long-term gas contract with Russia despite Lukashenko's statements. Negotiations continued over pricing/terms. EU SANCTIONS IMPACT: Extensive EU sanctions target Belarus's energy, trade, financial sectors (bans imports certain mineral products, exports luxury goods). Contributing to sharp drop EU trade, forcing pivot to Russian/Asian markets. 2026 SANCTIONS PACKAGES: EU's 20th sanctions package Apr 2026 added parallel measures against Belarus alongside Russia-focused actions (targeting military-industrial complex, energy sector circumvention, crypto services, more). GEOPOLITICAL ALIGNMENT: Sanctions and Russia-Ukraine war accelerated Belarus's economic, military, political integration with Russia (Russian military presence, nuclear weapons deployment). Fostering ties with China (SCO membership, BRICS partner status). GLOBAL RANKING: Belarus ranks ~70th world oil production (~27,846 bbl/d 2024 data). Focuses domestic needs plus limited product exports, not significant crude exports. BOTTOM LINE: Belarus minor oil producer deeply integrated with Russia for energy supplies, refining, exports. Amid ongoing EU/US sanctions and geopolitical alignment with Moscow. Limited upstream autonomy, strategic dependence on Russia. Western sanctions pressure continues.

Strategic Positioning: Week 27 Midweek Update

Wednesday, July 1, 2026. WEEK 27 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil trading ~$69.98-$70.42. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released today (covering week ending Jun 26, 2026). CRUDE OIL INVENTORY UPDATE: Latest reported week ending Jun 19, 2026 crude fell 6.088M barrels to 412.1M barrels (7% below 5-year avg). Cushing, Oklahoma stocks down over 1M barrels in latest week. BROADER CONTEXT: OECD stocks heading toward multi-decade lows driven by Iran-related conflict and Strait of Hormuz issues. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Jun 2026 forecasts 6.3M bpd global inventory declines in Q2 2026. Brent prices expected ~$105/bbl Jun/Jul before potential easing later in year. REFINERY ACTIVITY: Runs and utilization high to offset supply gaps, contributing to inventory draws. GASOLINE AND DISTILLATE STOCKS: Gasoline +2.064M barrels, distillates +3.064M barrels (contrasting crude draw; refineries running hard to produce products). NATURAL GAS: No EIA storage report today (releases occur Thursdays 10:30 a.m. ET). Next release Jul 2, 2026 (covering week ending Jun 26, 2026). Latest storage data week ending Jun 19, 2026: Working gas in storage 2,835 Bcf. Net injection +76 Bcf from prior week. Year-over-year 49 Bcf below same week 2025. Five-year average 152 Bcf above average. THE SETUP: Crude inventories falling, multi-decade lows, support for higher prices, but WTI trading $70, consolidation continues. Support $67.93, resistance $71.84. Watch for EIA data surprises. Doha talks ongoing. Gas storage building, injections strong, accumulation zone intact. WEEK 27 THESIS: Crude fade trade complete, mean reversion delivered, geopolitical premium fading but Hormuz risk remains. Short any bounces above $72. Target $65-$67. Gas storage building, injections strong, accumulation intact. Target $4.00+. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Technicals: Week 27

Tuesday, June 30, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $70. Recent closes ~$70.04-$70.42. Intraday range $69-$71 area. KEY LEVELS: Psychological support zone $70 (key round-number level). Immediate daily pivot support cluster ~$69.88-$70.17 (supports just below current price). Nearby resistances ~$70.46-$70.58. Near-term support ~$67-$68 (recent lows, swing references). 200-day moving average support ~$66.14 (major longer-term support). Deeper support ~$60-$65 (psychological round number, prior zones; $65 potential downside objective). Immediate resistance ~$71-$73 (recent highs, swing points, pivot resistances). Former support now resistance ~$74-$76 (key zone from prior price action). Next resistance ~$80 (notable upside target/barrier). 50-day moving average resistance ~$89 (longer-term moving average overhead resistance). SETUP: Crude in consolidation. Support at $67.93. Resistance at $71.84. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. Watch Doha talks. Hormuz escalation risk remains. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub trading ~$3.17-$3.19. Intraday range ~$3.170-$3.313. INDICATORS: RSI(14) 32.85-34.09 (Sell signal, neutral-to-oversold, weakening momentum, potential further downside/consolidation). MACD(12,26) -0.027 to -0.031 (Sell signal, negative, confirming bearish momentum). Overall technical Strong Sell (moving averages Sell, technical indicators Strong Sell). PIVOT POINTS: S3 ~3.164, S2 ~3.171, S1 ~3.179, Pivot ~3.186, R1 ~3.194, R2 ~3.201, R3 ~3.209. MOVING AVERAGES: Price trading below most SMAs/EMAs. MA5 ~3.186-$3.194 range mixed signals. MA10/20/50/100/200 mostly Sell. OTHER INDICATORS: STOCH(9,6) ~12.8 (Oversold). Williams %R ~-87 (Oversold). CCI(14) ~-100 (Sell). ADX(14) ~25 (Sell/trending). 52-WEEK RANGE: ~2.48-$7.83. SUPPORT/RESISTANCE: Support near 2.9-$3.0. Resistance around 3.1-$3.3. DOHA TALKS UPDATE: Trump announced Iran requested meeting, taking place today Doha. US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner flying to Doha for high-level meetings this week. Iran denies direct talks (Iranian officials state delegation heading to Doha but NOT for direct US meetings). Focus implementing MOU via Qatari mediators. Stand-down agreement both sides agreed halt attacks "for now," allow vessels move freely Strait of Hormuz, continue technical talks MOU. Context tit-for-tat strikes weekend linked Strait of Hormuz disputes, strains interim deal. MOU focus resolve shipping safety, cease-fire implementation, Iran's role/management claims over strait. Qatari role acting mediator/host. Iranian position describes situation "sensitive and complex," continues asserting influence Hormuz management. THE READ: Crude consolidating $70, support $67.93, resistance $71.84. Watch Doha talks. Hormuz risk remains. Gas oversold (RSI 32, MACD negative), support near $3.0, resistance $3.1-$3.3. Accumulation zone intact but momentum weak. Doha talks critical. If successful crude could fade $65-$67. If escalation resumes crude could spike $75-$80. Trade the technicals. Respect the levels.

Doha Talks Resume

Monday, June 29, 2026. WEEK 27 OPENS. WTI crude oil opened at $70.50. Recent session range high $70.97, low $69.32. Prior close Jun 26 $69.23. Latest quotes ~$69.95-$70.21 (up slightly from Friday close). CRUDE OIL SETUP: Support at $67.93. Resistance at $71.84. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. Crude broken below $70 last week. This week watch for Hormuz escalation risk. Talks resume Doha Jun 30. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub at ~$3.28/MMBtu (down ~0.49%). Jun 22 EIA spot $3.16/MMBtu. CME Henry Hub futures $3.28-$3.31 range. EIA projections averages ~$3.34-$3.60/MMBtu for 2026 periods. Storage building. Injections strong. Accumulation zone intact. US-IRAN NEGOTIATIONS: Mid-June MOU signed ~Jun 17. Formal signing ~Jun 19 Geneva, Switzerland. 60-day negotiation window for nuclear issues, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access. Late Jun Switzerland talks ~Jun 19-21 Bürgenstock, Switzerland (near Geneva, Lucerne). Described positive and constructive. Progress high-level oversight committee, Hormuz communications line, IAEA inspectors' access discussed. Some follow-ups called off amid regional flare-ups (Lebanon, Hezbollah). JUNE 29 UPDATES: US and Iran agreed to halt attacks. Plans for renewed talks Doha, Qatar, Jun 30. Focus Strait and broader MOU implementation. STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHIPPING: Fragile recovery post-MOU. Traffic picking up modestly (some LNG and VLCC movements). Well below pre-conflict norms (~138 vessels/day pre-war vs single digits-low tens recently). Hampered by risks, insurance, recent incidents. Post-MOU efforts UN maritime agency coordination, freeing trapped ships, safer routes near Oman. Recent escalation (late Jun 2026) attacks on commercial vessels/cargo ships. US retaliatory strikes on Iran. Iran signaling intent to resume transit fees after 60-day suspension. Iran asserts control over waterway. Ongoing mine risks, blockades, incidents suppressing traffic. Some Iranian oil exports resuming in limited volumes. SETUP: Crude support at $67.93, resistance at $71.84. Watch Doha talks Jun 30. Hormuz escalation risk remains. Gas $3.28/MMBtu. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. WEEK 27 THESIS: Crude fade trade complete, mean reversion delivered, geopolitical premium fading but Hormuz risk remains. Short any bounces above $72. Target $65-$67. Gas storage building, injections strong, accumulation intact. Target $4.00+. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Weekly Recap: Week 26 Complete

Friday, June 26, 2026. WEEK 26 COMPLETE. Twenty-six weeks running. The thesis delivers again. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Monday opened $74.82 (deal live, Hormuz open, geopolitical premium intact). Tuesday technicals showed broad range $73-$78 zone, short bias below $73.91. Wednesday EIA inventory report crude fell 8.3M barrels week ending Jun 12 (10th consecutive draw, multi-decade lows). Thursday crude broke $70 (fade trade complete, mean reversion delivered). Friday closed $70.54. WEEKLY SUMMARY: Week-start $74.82, week-end $70.54, weekly change -$4.28 (-5.72%). Weekly high $78.96 (Mon), weekly low $68.91 (Thu). Largest daily drop -3.92% Wed (close $70.34). Daily closes Mon $74.82, Tue $73.21, Wed $70.34, Thu $71.52, Fri $70.54. Pattern seventh lower low in recent sessions. Key drivers easing supply disruption fears from Strait of Hormuz reopening, EIA revised 2026 global demand forecast lower (-1.1M bpd). Context well below 2026 peaks above $100/bbl earlier in year. NATURAL GAS RECAP: EIA Weekly Storage Report released Jun 25 for week ending Jun 19: Working gas 2,835 Bcf. Net change +76 Bcf injection. Year-ago 49 Bcf below. 5-year average 152 Bcf above. HENRY HUB SPOT PRICES: Jun 5 $3.03/MMBtu, Jun 12 $3.16/MMBtu, Jun 19 $3.12/MMBtu, Jun 22 $3.16/MMBtu. HENRY HUB FUTURES: August contract ~$3.282-$3.288. Nearby contracts low-to-mid $3.10s-$3.20s range. Some daily closes $3.15-$3.23. EIA PROJECTIONS: Henry Hub averages ~$3.30-$4.00/MMBtu for parts of 2026. WEEK 26 SUMMARY: Deal live. Hormuz shipping normalizing. Crude fade trade complete, mean reversion delivered, broke $70, support at $67.93. Gas storage building, injections strong, accumulation intact, $3.05-$3.15 prime entry, target $4.00+. Geopolitical premium gone. WEEK 27 PREVIEW: Watch further Hormuz normalization. Technical talks resume Geneva. Crude support at $67.93. Gas accumulation continues. BOTTOM LINE: Twenty-six weeks. Every thesis confirmed. Trade the data, not the headlines.