Rob Hamilton on Risk, Liquidity, and the Signals Bitcoin Still Lacks

Rob Hamilton on Risk, Liquidity, and the Signals Bitcoin Still Lacks

In this episode, I sit down with Rob Hamilton to talk through one of the themes that has quietly connected a lot of our conversations over the years: risk. We unpack the difference between living with risk versus explicitly pricing it, why Bitcoiners are often strong at spotting failures in banking and fiat systems but weaker at thinking from first principles about market structure, and why liquidity, credit, derivatives, and pricing across time matter so much more than many people realize. Along the way, we contrast the maturity of fiat markets with the relative underdevelopment of Bitcoin markets, and why that gap makes it harder for capital allocators to evaluate major changes with confidence. We also spend a lot of time on a core claim: markets are amoral, but unavoidable. If you want to influence a market, you can’t pretend you’re above it; participation, non-participation, pricing, and refusal to price all communicate information. Rob and I use examples ranging from miners and treasury companies to Bitcoin Cash, SegWit2x, ETFs, and hash-rate rental markets to argue that Bitcoin’s next phase requires better market signals, deeper liquidity, and more serious thinking about how information gets expressed when the stakes are no longer small. This was a fun crossover, but also a serious conversation about what Bitcoin still needs if it wants to be taken seriously at global scale. * Magic Internet Math: https://magicinternetmath.com/ [https://magicinternetmath.com/] * AnchorWatch: https://www.anchorwatch.com/about [https://www.anchorwatch.com/about] * Bitnomial: https://bitnomial.com/ [https://bitnomial.com/] * Shelling Out: The Origins of Money by Nick Szabo: https://nakamotoinstitute.org/library/shelling-out/ [https://nakamotoinstitute.org/library/shelling-out/]

Charlie Stevens: Tontines and the Restoration of Retirement Income

In this episode, I sat down with Charlie Stevens to explore what happens when actuarial thinking collides with Bitcoin, hard money, and the future of retirement income. We started with Charlie’s path through the actuarial profession in Ireland and into insurance consulting, then unpacked how reserve assumptions, capital rules, discount rates, and regulatory incentives shape the insurance world far more than most people realize. We also looked back at the evolution from defined benefit pensions to variable annuities, why so many lifetime income products became less viable as rates fell, and how the financial system increasingly drifted toward model-driven abstractions instead of economic reality. From there, we got into the core question: what might lifetime income look like in a harder-money world? That led us to tontines — an old idea with a modern structure — and why Charlie believes they may be one of the most promising ways to solve longevity risk without relying on the fragile guarantees of the fiat era. We discussed how Tontine Trust works, why the incentives are so compelling, how Bitcoin and gold fit into the picture, and why this could become a major building block for retirement planning if people begin demanding simpler, more transparent products they can actually understand. * Tontine Trust: https://tontine.com/ [https://tontine.com/] * Tontine Trust App: https://app.tontine.com/ [https://app.tontine.com/] * What Is a Tontine? (Tontine Trust): https://tontine.com/what-is-a-tontine/ [https://tontine.com/what-is-a-tontine/] * Sam Roberts on Bitcoin and Pension Investment (Cartwright): https://pensiontrusts.cartwright.co.uk/news-insights-the-case-for-pension-scheme-investment-in-bitcoin [https://pensiontrusts.cartwright.co.uk/news-insights-the-case-for-pension-scheme-investment-in-bitcoin] * OECD Pensions Outlook 2024: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-pensions-outlook-2024_51510909-en.html [https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-pensions-outlook-2024_51510909-en.html] * Dean McClelland / Team Tontine (About Us): https://tontine.com/es/about-us/ [https://tontine.com/es/about-us/] * Charlie Stevens / Team Tontine (About Us): https://tontine.com/es/about-us/ [https://tontine.com/es/about-us/]

Loving Ourselves w/ SlyGoomba

Today I sit down with my longtime friend Sly Goomba for an unfiltered conversation about identity, debt, sovereignty, and faith. We trace our early Bitcoin zealotry, why the label “Bitcoiner” feels empty today, and how paper Bitcoin, institutions, and interest-rate theater shape people’s behavior far more than we want to admit. From credit-card traps to mortgages, we wrestle with whether rates even matter, what it means to keep your word, and how to build a life that isn’t brittle. We get personal about marriages stressed by conviction, why Bitcoin often wrecks before it refines, and why real upgrades start with loving yourself and pursuing a relationship with God. We talk about building sturdier structures—community, study, and service—through things like BitDevs and honest education, and we land on a simple charge: stop LARPing, tell the truth, and become the kind of person strong enough to fix a little bit of the world. * 'High Hash Rate' podcast: https://highhashrate.com [https://highhashrate.com] * 'Rock Paper Bitcoin' podcast: https://rockpaperbitcoin.com [https://rockpaperbitcoin.com] * BitDevs (NYC and global meetups): https://bitdevs.org [https://bitdevs.org] * Chaincode Labs (NYC BitDevs host): https://chaincode.com [https://chaincode.com] * Zeus Wallet (Lightning): https://zeusln.app [https://zeusln.app] * Magic Johnson (official site): https://www.magicjohnson.com [https://www.magicjohnson.com] * Bible (New Testament online): https://www.biblegateway.com [https://www.biblegateway.com]

Austrian Economics: The God that Failed (solo)

In this solo riff, I challenge an Overton window many Bitcoiners (and I once) held sacred: that Austrian economics is a complete economic theory rather than a powerful tool for debunking bad ones. Sparked by reading Irreducible by Federico Faggin, I draw a parallel between classical vs. quantum physics and classical vs. Austrian economics, arguing that Austrian thought excels at telling us what economics is not—but becomes a trap when treated as a unifying theory. I share how reverence for Mises, Rothbard, and Hoppe helped me cut through intellectual tyranny, yet nearly led me into “wrong-think” when I tried to force every question through their lens. From Keynes to Hayek, from Newton to Planck, I urge the Bitcoin thinking class to resist authority worship, expand the reading list to include classical economists like Adam Smith and Milton Friedman, and remain in inquiry. Austrian ideas are invaluable lightsabers for avoiding errors, not priestly dogmas to close debates—especially when we’re still collectively figuring out what Bitcoin is and what a hard-money world may or may not look like. * 'Irreducible: Consciousness, Life, Computers, and Human Nature' (Federico Faggin): https://www.amazon.com/Irreducible-Consciousness-Computers-Human-Nature/dp/1956259105 [https://www.amazon.com/Irreducible-Consciousness-Computers-Human-Nature/dp/1956259105] * Federico Faggin (biography): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federico_Faggin [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federico_Faggin] * 'Human Action' (Ludwig von Mises): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Action [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Action] * Hans-Hermann Hoppe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans-Hermann_Hoppe [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans-Hermann_Hoppe] * 'Democracy: The God That Failed' (Hans-Hermann Hoppe): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy:_The_God_That_Failed [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy:_The_God_That_Failed] * Murray Rothbard: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murray_Rothbard [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murray_Rothbard] * John Maynard Keynes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes] * Friedrich A. Hayek (Nobel Prize facts, 1974): https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1974/hayek/facts/ [https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1974/hayek/facts/] * Adam Smith: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Smith [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Smith] * Milton Friedman: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_Friedman [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_Friedman] * Austrian School (overview): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_School [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_School] * Praxeology: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Praxeology [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Praxeology] * Bitcoin (project site): https://bitcoin.org [https://bitcoin.org] * Classical mechanics: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classical_mechanics [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classical_mechanics] * Quantum field theory: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_field_theory [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_field_theory] * Isaac Newton: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Newton [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Newton] * Galileo Galilei: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_Galilei [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_Galilei] * Nicolaus Copernicus: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicolaus_Copernicus [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicolaus_Copernicus] * Albert Einstein: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Einstein [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Einstein] * Max Planck: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Planck [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Planck]

Bigger Picture Bitcoin w/ Steven Lubka

In this episode, I sit down with Steven Lubka to reflect on the last few years of Bitcoin culture—from the electric energy of 2021–2023 Twitter Spaces to why the vibe inevitably tracks the price. We dig into how higher interest rates changed capital allocation, why dispersion has returned to markets, and how that raises the bar for real innovation versus ZIRP-era junk. We also revisit the UK LDI scare and the 2023 U.S. bank stress to ask what the Fed actually proved about its ability to “kick the can,” and what Bitcoiners often get wrong about system fragility versus resilience. From pleb slop and rigid certainties to the harder work of holding nuanced, probabilistic views, Steven and I talk about conviction over decades, why mining is a full-on industrial business (not a casual hobby), and how years spent in Bitcoin unexpectedly prepared us for the AI acceleration now reshaping everything. We close on the importance of gradual change, personal growth, and building the grit to survive-and-advance through volatility, FUD, and the long arc of adoption. * 'Magic Internet Math (host’s project)': https://magicinternetmath.com/ [https://magicinternetmath.com/]