The Serfs Will Have Drones

The Serfs Will Have Drones

Cousins hits the road for its first-ever in-person episode, recorded at Matt Gertken's home in Taos, New Mexico! Jacob, Marko, and Matt dig into the brewing standoff between Anthropic and the US government over export controls on its Mythos AI model, then zoom out to ask whether AI marks a civilizational rupture on par with industrialization itself - pitting the state, corporations, and "free-for-all" chaos against each other for control. They pivot to the Iran-Israel-US "hate triangle," the Strait of Hormuz, and what a fragile peace means for Gulf states and China. They close out with hot takes on the Knicks' title run and the World Cup. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome to Taos IRL (01:30) - House History and Taos Lore (02:25) - War Returns and Pivot Myth (03:15) - Anthropic vs US Crackdown (06:57) - AI as New Means of Production (10:44) - Kids Screens and Ideology (13:39) - Can States Control AI (16:35) - Dystopias State vs Corp (23:20) - Western Messiness vs Rule of Law (30:51) - Tech Barons and Backlash Politics (33:45) - Data Centers and Populist Response (35:37) - Bull Moose Antitrust Populism (37:10) - China Infrastructure Social Fabric (38:29) - Boom Bust Capex Cycles (41:23) - Universities Under Pressure (43:12) - How Campuses Handle AI (46:32) - Elitism Versus Access (50:19) - Iran Endgame Framework (51:27) - Hormuz Kinetic Equilibrium (56:34) - US Resolve And Deterrence (59:13) - Who Wins Middle East (01:07:54) - China As Stabilizer (01:09:59) - China Bonds And Stagnation (01:10:58) - No Rival No Resolve (01:12:40) - Oil Reserves And Populism (01:15:32) - China The Adult Debate (01:16:36) - Empire Model And Global South (01:21:11) -Will Power Corrupt China (01:23:36) - NBA Finals And Ticket Madness (01:27:09) - AI Makes Live Sports Pricier (01:29:53) - Basketball As Geopolitics (01:34:01) - World Cup Cohesion Forecast -- Referenced in the Show: -- Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com [https://audiographies.com] -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com [https://jacobshapiro.com] Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416] Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap [https://x.com/JacobShap] Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe [https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe] -- Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic [https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic] Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/] Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic [https://x.com/Geo_papic] Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro [https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro]

The Most Important Of All Unimportant Forecasts

World Cup Time!!!!!!! Robert Tipper and Juan Correa are our guests. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Secret Forecast Origins (01:23) - Meet The Authors (03:02) - Juan Football Roots (07:41) - Marco World Cup Memories (10:07) - Robert Germany Stories (14:47) - Jacob 2014 Awakening (19:06) - Why Soccer Is Hard (21:50) - Inside The Model (28:28) - What Doesnt Predict (30:22) - Group Stage Surprises (31:40) - Home Edge And Curse (35:16) - Why Champions Collapse (36:08) - Argentina Winner Curse (37:37) - Group F Chaos Picks (39:36) - Bracket Quarterfinals (41:30) - Portugal Dark Horse (43:30) - France Wins It All (45:42) - France Identity Debate (47:11) - Football And Immigration (50:22) - Geopolitical Matches (56:27) - USA 2010 Donovan Goal (01:01:01) - Can Soccer Unite America (01:03:37) - Building US Infrastructure (01:09:30) - Closing Thoughts Farewell -- Referenced in the Show: 2026 BCA World Cup Forecast - https://www.bcaresearch.com/reports/most-important-all-unimportant-forecasts-3rd-edition-2026-world-cup-04-06-2026/219501?token=99a83421876851853383a4eb1118ddb9 [https://www.bcaresearch.com/reports/most-important-all-unimportant-forecasts-3rd-edition-2026-world-cup-04-06-2026/219501?token=99a83421876851853383a4eb1118ddb9 ] -- Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com [https://audiographies.com] -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com [https://jacobshapiro.com] Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416] Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap [https://x.com/JacobShap] Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe [https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe] -- Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic [https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic] Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/] Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic [https://x.com/Geo_papic] Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro [https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro]

The Second Derivative

The Strait of Hormuz is running out of runway - and so is the Trump administration's room to maneuver... The cousins unpack why oil inventories are the real ammunition in the Iran standoff, why markets keep hitting all-time highs despite closed shipping lanes, and what the AI economy's dominance says about the K-shaped world underneath. We close with NBA playoff predictions (duh) ahead of a Thunder-Spurs Game 7. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome (00:28) - Weekend Hoops and Aging (02:09) - Travel Grind and Vivid Dream (04:23) - Tales From the Road Idea (05:18) - Iran Deal or No Deal (08:47) - Strait Tolls and Mixed Signals (11:20) - Gas Prices and $250 Bill Bit (13:59) - Communist Relics and Inflation Fears (18:16) - Why Markets Hit Highs (19:21) - Politics Versus Material Reality (27:54) - AI Boom Meets K Economy (32:15) - Fading Geopolitical Risk (40:34) - Second Derivative Thinking (47:02) - Savings Rate Double Click (48:46) - Savings Rate Psychology (51:09) - YOLO Trading Era (53:57) - Savings Floor Risks (55:46) - Summer Oil Squeeze (56:57) - Sticky Inflation Drivers (58:30) - Politics And The Fed (01:00:15) - Markets And War Signals (01:02:13) - Reflexivity In Geopolitics (01:06:17) - Nihilism And Truth (01:07:17) - Quick Hits USMCA Update (01:12:12) - Moon Race Concerns (01:15:35) - AI Data Centers In Space (01:17:43) - World Cup Preview (01:20:09) - Why World Cup Is Hard (01:25:31) - Game Seven Predictions (01:28:43) - LeBron Comparison Debate (01:32:28) - Final Spurs Call -- Referenced in the Show: -- Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com [https://audiographies.com] -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com [https://jacobshapiro.com] Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416] Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap [https://x.com/JacobShap] Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe [https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe] -- Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic [https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic] Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/] Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic [https://x.com/Geo_papic] Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro [https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro]

Forty Meters Under Fordow

Jacob and Marko dive straight into the Iran-US ceasefire negotiations (airstrikes are hitting Iranian ships and missile sites as I type) - dissecting domestic political constraints on both sides, the Strait of Hormuz's diminishing leverage window, and why the emerging deal is arguably a worse JCPOA. They pivot to Gen Z's eroding relationship with nationalism, Erdoğan's assault on Turkey's main opposition party, protests in Serbia AND OF COURSE close on the NBA playoffs. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome (01:03) - Cousins Reunite!! (01:58) - Iran Ceasefire Strikes Update (05:20) - Deal Dynamics And Domestic Politics (09:07) - Military Posture And Hormuz Leverage (31:52) - Israel Spoiler And Regional Fallout (34:08) - Ebola Outbreak Background (37:13) - Why Ebola Gets Ignored (38:21) - Deglobalization And Pandemic Risk (41:23) - Vaccines Versus Political Will (43:40) - Marco Responds And MAGA Critique (48:17) - Global Health Reality Check (49:07) - Ebola Lessons and Limits (51:06) - Why US Must Engage (55:22) - Serbia Trip and Protests (57:43) - Gen Z Standards Revolution (01:03:30) - No Plan After Protest (01:06:54) - Censorship and Shared Culture (01:08:39) - Metaverse Versus Nationhood (01:20:33) - Turkey Opposition Crackdown (01:23:59) - AOC Mailbag and AI Politics (01:25:23) - NBA Takes Meet Geopolitics (01:30:00) - Victor Wembanyama Era -- Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com [https://audiographies.com] -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com [https://jacobshapiro.com] Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416] Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap [https://x.com/JacobShap] Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe [https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe] -- Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic [https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic] Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/] Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic [https://x.com/Geo_papic] Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro [https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro]

TVI26: C***** Goes #1

Trade Value Index 2026 Part 3! Okay, okay... Here's the FULL list -> https://tinyurl.com/gctvi26 [https://tinyurl.com/gctvi26 ] -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome Back and Housekeeping (01:37) - Netanyahu Reconsidered (03:07) - Trump Iran War and Tariffs (05:37) - Ejecting Netanyahu TBD (06:09) - Cyprus Surprise Pick (08:37) - Finland NATO and Stubb (10:21) - Zelensky Case for Top Tier (20:34) - Pope Leo XIV Rising Influence (27:15) - Mitsotakis and Greece Comeback (32:53) - Modi and Sheinbaum Rankings (35:28) - Bukele Drops to Four (37:58) - Mark Carney Goes Number One (40:14) - Carney Goes Number One (40:50) - Steph Curry Comparison (41:46) - Bulking Up Canada (43:38) - Devils Advocate Pushback (45:21) - Trade Value Logic (46:54) - Full Rankings Recap (52:28) - Why Trump Missed Cut (57:41) - Biggest Movers Data (01:00:20) - Ideology Bias Breakdown (01:02:46) - Regional Bias Breakdown (01:05:32) - Starting Five Metaphors (01:06:46) - Xi and Jokic Deep Dive (01:13:34) - Wrap Up and Corrections -- Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com [https://audiographies.com] -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com [https://jacobshapiro.com] Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416] Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap [https://x.com/JacobShap] Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe [https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe] -- Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic [https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic] Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/] Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic [https://x.com/Geo_papic] Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro [https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro]