An Early Look at Midterm Elections

An Early Look at Midterm Elections

In Episode 79, Frank welcomes back his friend and colleague Chris Krueger, Head of Global Macro Research for TD Securities and an expert on Washington politics, to discuss the upcoming US Midterm elections in November. Before digging in on US politics, Frank and Chris work through some recent developments around the globe including the Iran Peace Deal, the Trump-Meloni dispute and Keir Starmer's resignation as Prime Minister of the UK. When the conversation switches to mid-terms, Chris educates our listeners on the math to control the House and Senate and suggests that the next leader of the Democratic Party is likely to emerge from state legislatures rather than chambers of government in Washington. Frank handicaps the Rubio-Vance sweepstakes for next Republican leader and believes that other horses will participate in the leadership race as well. The two finish up discussing the dispute over the opening of the Gordie Howe Bridge, IEEPA refunds and expectations for CUSMA negotiations.   This podcast was recorded on June 22, 2026   Chapter Headings 01:15 - The Iran Peace Deal 07:21 - Starmer Quits 15:40 - The Math for House and Senate 22:19 - Leading Candidates for Democrats 24:54 - Rubio vs Vance 28:04 - Dispute over Gordie Howe Bridge 32:04 - New US Tariffs Arrive as IEEPA Refunds Start 34:47 - Expectations for CUSMA       For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure [https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure]. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com [https://pcm.adswizz.com] for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Geopolitics meets Major League Baseball

Frank and Peter found heaven in the May episode of Geopolitics with the marriage of a live audience for Episode 78 before a Jays game at the Rogers Center and a special guest appearance in the second half of this podcast by former Toronto Blue Jays President Paul Beeston to talk baseball.  Frank covers a wide range of topics in the first 30 minutes including his view on the wars in Iran and Ukraine as well as Canadian hot button topics such as the upcoming CUSMA negotiations and the upcoming separation vote in Alberta.  He also takes a moment to remember the life of his friend Robert Irving from Moncton who passed away recently.  The conversation shifts to baseball where two kids in a candy store named McKenna and Haynes lined up to ask Beeston everything he knows about baseball including his view on the Jays in 2026 as well as the pending labor negotiations between players and owners.  Beeston offers his thoughts on the electronic review of everything in baseball, an outcome he would not support and finishes with some thoughts on 50 years with the Toronto Blue Jays organization. Chapter Headings   01:10 - Remember Robert Irving 03:52 - Are We Nearing the End of the Wars in Iran and Ukraine? 15:33 - Global Investors Turn Bullish on Canada 21:44 - CUSMA Rhetoric 29:00 - Premier Smith's Dangerous Gamble on Sovereignty Vote 39:07 - Beeston's 50 Game Review of Blue Jays Season 47:34 - Can Major League Baseball Avoid a Strike? 54:38 - Beeston Says No to Review of Every Umpire Decision  1:14:02 - Memories from 50 Years with the Blue Jays   This podcast was recorded on 05/25/26 For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure [https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure]. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com [https://pcm.adswizz.com] for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

A 24 Hour Geopolitical News Cycle

Episode 77 covers a wide range of topics on the geopolitical landscape including the recent assassination attempt on President Trump, the implications on global energy markets of UAE's decision to exit OPEC and which person is leading Iran in negotiations with the United States. Frank discusses the stalemate and war of attrition that is the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is a win for Ukraine and the impact on populist governments of the shocking defeat by authoritarian leader Victor Orban in Hungary. The conversation turns to Canada where Frank discusses Carney's back door into a majority and how it will change calculus for the Liberal leader's policymaking and CUSMA negotiation strategy. He finishes with analysis of Prime Minister Carney's recent announcements of a new Sovereign Wealth Fund and an upcoming Federal Government-led global investment Summit planned for Toronto in September, both positive developments for Canada.   This podcast was recorded on April 28, 2026   Chapter Headings   00:48 - President Trump Assassination Attempt 05:58 - Who is Negotiating on Behalf of Iran? 11:25 - UAE Leaves OPEC 13:38 - Ukraine's Move to Back Pages Masks Recent War Successes 17:41 - What Orban's Loss Means for Populist Leaders? 30:35 - Carney Replies to Greer's Threats Ahead of CUSMA Talks 32:22 - Explaining Canada's New Sovereign Wealth Fund 36:46 - Recent Investment Wins for Carney Puts Approval Process in Spotlight For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure [https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure]. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com [https://pcm.adswizz.com] for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Trump's Iran Conundrum

In Episode 76, Frank ponders the potential outcomes of the War in Iran and its impact on other global geopolitical events. He believes that despite a wide bid-ask spread in peace negotiations between Iran and the US that the Trump Administration will find a peaceful end to hostilities in the near future. Complicating matters in this war are different goals for the two protagonists, The US and Israel, one of which has to live next door to a now angry Iranian regime. Frank is not surprised by Iran's tactics in the Strait of Hormuz, nor the lack of support for military escorts from NATO allies. One certainty is the impact of the war on energy prices and, in turn, broader inflation trends in the US is going to be negative for Trump and the Republicans at mid-term elections in November.  We finish the dialogue back home in Canada, where citizens of the Province of Alberta are expected to hold a vote on secession from Canada later this year, an unfortunate distraction for Albertans and Canadians at a time of so much other geopolitical noise. Despite this unwanted noise and limited likelihood of success in the first secession attempt, Canadians would be remiss if we simply ignored this Alberta secession vote as noise; just ask citizens of the UK who didn’t take Brexit seriously until it was too late.   This podcast was recorded on March 26, 2026   Chapter Headings:   01:47 - The Goal of War with Iran 08:18 - Narrowing the Bid-Ask Spread on Peace Negotiations 12:57 - Iran's Control of Strait of Hormuz 16:31 - Trump's Tries to Hold His Base 19:45 - The Future of NATO 27:19 - China's Quiet Positioning 35:05 - Higher Energy Prices – Impact on Mid-Terms 37:31 - Save America Act 43:11 - Alberta Secession Talk 55:57 - Frank's Two Favorite Words "Opening Day For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure [https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure]. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com [https://pcm.adswizz.com] for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Tariff Debate Takes Centre Stage

What if Cuba became a territory of Canada? What if Justice Alito suddenly retired this summer? These are just two of Frank's more provocative thoughts in this month's episode of Geopolitics. Frank also addresses the "monumental" Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, Trump's pivot to Section 122 flat tariffs and Jameson Greer's suggestion that Canada needs to accept some tariff level as part of CUSMA negotiations, a point Frank pushes back on given it defeats the notion of a "free trade agreement." He also discusses the prospect of US military action in Iran, the latest on Venezuela and the possible revitalization of Keystone XL.   This podcast was recorded on February 26, 2026   Chapter Headings:   01:36 - Frank's Musings on Supreme Court Changes and a Solution for Cuba 10:39 - Supreme Court Ruling on IEEPA Tariffs and Trump's Pivot to 122 18:08 - Does Canada Have to Accept Tariffs in a renewed CUSMA? 23:52 - Trump's Plan to Replace Income Tax with Tariff Revenues 27:26 - Will Trump Attack Iran? 33:34 - The Latest in Venezuela 35:27 - South Bow Discusses Revitalizing Keystone XL   For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure [https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure]. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com [https://pcm.adswizz.com] for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.