Armenia election result revives hopes of reopening border with Turkey

Armenia election result revives hopes of reopening border with Turkey

Nikol Pashinyan’s sweeping re-election in Armenia has raised fresh hopes that the border with Turkey could finally reopen after three decades of closure. The Armenian prime minister campaigned on restoring ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan, as well as moving Armenia closer to Europe – but constitutional reform remains a major obstacle. The vote on 7 June gave Nikol Pashinyan a clear victory [https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20260608-armenia-pm-pashinyan-wins-vote-cementing-pro-western-shift-europe-russia] over the opposition. But his success could prove bittersweet after he fell short of the parliamentary majority needed to change the constitution. Changing the constitution is part of Pashinyan’s peace efforts with Azerbaijan, brokered last year [https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20260117-us-takes-lead-in-caucasus-peace-deal-as-france-is-pushed-aside] by United States President Donald Trump. “This government is committed to passing what the Armenian opposition would refer to as 'the Aliyev [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/ilham-aliev/] referendum',” said Eric Hacopian, a Yerevan-based political consultant. “The problem is, now they have no votes to bring it up because you need to get a two-thirds vote to change the constitution.” Armenia PM Pashinyan wins vote, cementing pro-Western shift [https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20260608-armenia-pm-pashinyan-wins-vote-cementing-pro-western-shift-europe-russia] CONSTITUTIONAL HURDLES On the back of the Washington peace talks [https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2025/08/09/Nikol-Pashinyan-visit-US-declaration/], “Armenia and Azerbaijan had an understanding that, after the election in Armenia, there would be certain constitutional amendments”, explained Hikmet Hajiyev, chief foreign policy adviser to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. Baku insists Armenia must remove claims to Nagorno-Karabakh [https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20231117-azerbaijan-must-allow-safe-return-to-nagorno-karabakh-un-court] from the preamble to its constitution. The two countries have clashed repeatedly over the contested territory. In 2023, Azerbaijan retook the breakaway enclave, causing more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee. “We are looking forward to Armenia completely eliminating elements of its territorial claims,” Hajiyev said. “Then we will not have any stumbling blocks or hurdles on our agenda to move forward.” Constitutional reform is also seen as important for normalising Armenia’s ties with Turkey, according to Hajiyev. “It's not directly linked, but indirectly,” he said. “Once the Azerbaijan-Armenia agenda is solved, then Turkey will also act in a synchronised manner, opening the borders and also establishing a closer relationship.” Armenia election: what the vote could mean for Russia, the West and Azerbaijan [https://www.rfi.fr/en/podcasts/international-report/20260607-caught-between-moscow-and-the-west-armenia-goes-to-the-polls] BORDER HOPES Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993, siding with Azerbaijan after ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh declared independence and seized Azerbaijani lands. Efforts to restore ties are now gathering pace, said Zeynep Alemdar, an international relations professor at Dogus University in Istanbul. “They've already declared in May 2026 that the border is going to be opened up, and all the bureaucratic, paperwork-type obstacles are actually being dismantled,” Alemdar said, noting that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/recep-tayyip-erdogan/] is believed to get on well with Pashinyan. Pashinyan’s Turkey visit signals new chapter as Ankara eyes Caucasus shift [https://www.rfi.fr/en/podcasts/international-report/20250707-pashinyan-s-turkey-visit-signals-new-chapter-as-ankara-eyes-caucasus-shift] But energy-rich Azerbaijan remains crucial to Ankara, Alemdar said. “Economically, comparing Azerbaijan versus Armenia for Ankara, of course Azerbaijan always wins... Of course Azerbaijan is going to be more influential,” Alemdar said. Erdogan congratulated Pashinyan on his re-election, while the Turkish foreign ministry urged Yerevan in a statement to embrace “bold reforms” – seen by many as a call for constitutional change. CAUTIOUS STEPS Pashinyan’s lack of decisive parliamentary support and uncertainty over a possible referendum mean Ankara’s role could be important in securing lasting peace, said Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center [https://www.regional-studies.org/] think tank in Yerevan. “For Turkey this is a slow, gradual process of retaking the initiative with Armenia, away from Azerbaijan,” Giragosian said. “Because in many ways, at every round it's been the Azerbaijan factor that's the key determinant. And according to sources in Ankara, they only have a yellow light of caution from Azerbaijan – it's not a red light, but it's not yet a green light to proceed.” Reopening the Turkish-Armenian border would be welcomed by the European Union [https://euneighbourseast.eu/news/stories/interview-with-vassilis-maragos-head-of-the-european-union-delegation-to-armenia/] and Washington, as Ankara seeks to deepen its ties with both. But with Azerbaijan acting as a major investor and economic lifeline, Turkey is moving cautiously to avoid upsetting its powerful neighbour.

Armenia election: what the vote could mean for Russia, the West and Azerbaijan

As Armenians vote in a parliamentary election seen as a test of Nikol Pashinyan’s pro-Western course, RFI asks two regional experts what the result could mean for peace with Azerbaijan and relations with Russia. Eight years after the street revolution that brought him to power, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is asking voters for a fresh mandate built around the promise of lasting peace with Azerbaijan and a reduced dependence on Russia. His opponents say he has conceded too much to Baku and damaged Armenia’s traditional alliance with Moscow. To understand what is at stake, RFI spoke to Joshua Kucera, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, and Richard Giragossian, director of the Regional Studies Center in Yerevan.

Turkey expands influence in Africa through military training

Turkey is expanding its military training programmes across Africa, with soldiers from Mali and Niger graduating from a special forces camp as Ankara seeks to deepen ties across the continent. The soldiers completed training this month at Turkey [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/turkey/]'s special forces camp in Isparta. The approach, known as the "Somalia model" after Turkey's largest overseas base, has become central to Ankara's strategy in Africa [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/africa/]. "The Somalia model is one of the Turkish military ideas to educate, train certain African states that are very much interested in military cooperation with Turkey," said Huseyin Bagci, an international relations professor at Ankara's Middle East Technical University. "Turkey has done it to Central Asian countries in the 90s, in the 2000s. So now the African is on the line, and this is the new development and is good for Turkey." Turkey has signed more than 20 military training cooperation deals across Africa in recent years. Turkey courts Libya's rival factions in bid to further Mediterranean ambitions [https://www.rfi.fr/en/podcasts/international-report/20260523-turkey-courts-libya-s-rival-factions-in-bid-to-further-mediterranean-ambitions] GROWING TIES "Somalia and Libya [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/libya/] are central where Turkey does have training bases," said Nebahat Tanriverdi Yasar, a defence expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. "But also, we are seeing growing ties with Sahelian countries, especially Niger, Mali, Nigeria." Turkey sees military training as a cost-effective way to increase its influence in Africa. "It is a relatively low-cost way to present itself in sensitive theaters, with fewer operational costs and risk of direct intervention. So in a way, those relations serve as a tool for defense diplomacy," Yasar said. Turkey has moved swiftly to capitalise on the vacuum left by France [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/france/]'s retreating military and fading diplomatic sway in West Africa [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/west-africa-1/] and the Sahel [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/sahel/]. Meanwhile, African nations increasingly view Turkey as a counterweight to the rising influence of Russia [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/russia/] and China [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/china/]. Turkey expands military footprint in Somalia as regional rivalries intensify [https://www.rfi.fr/en/podcasts/international-report/20260516-turkey-expands-military-footprint-in-somalia-as-regional-rivalries-intensify] LIBYA'S ROLE Turkey's training of Libyan forces linked to rival administrations also serves European interests because Libya has become a crucial gateway for people smugglers heading into Europe [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/europe/], said Aya Burweilla, a Libya expert at the Athens-based Center for Hellenic and Mediterranean Studies. "Libya with an army that can secure its borders is good for Europe, too," Burweilla said. "Libya has two seas, one in the desert and one on the Mediterranean. And you need a properly organized army that can keep the border safe." Turkey's military training programmes are also helping the country's booming defence industry. "If you train them, they should use Turkish weapons; this is very normal. When you look at the export of Turkish arms to the world, you see mostly to African countries," said Bagci. Turkey's growing defence ties are helping to bring African military and political leaders to industry events in Turkey. "It is not easy to make business, of course, with African countries, with the military leaders there, it is not easy. But when you look at military fairs in Istanbul [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/istanbul/], you see how many African countries' military and political leaders visit," Bagci said. Turkey boosts Mali defence ties after separatist and jihadist attacks [https://www.rfi.fr/en/podcasts/international-report/20260502-turkey-boosts-mali-defence-ties-after-separatist-and-jihadist-attacks] DEFENCE LINKS Turkish arms sales, such as military drones now found across Africa, often include extensive training, intelligence sharing and diplomatic engagement. Training junior officers in countries like Somalia, some destined to become future generals, could also help Turkey build long-term relationships, said Omar Mahmood, East Africa analyst at the International Crisis Group. "You invest in the up and coming of the Somali security force, and you'll have some sort of long-standing ties going forward," Mahmood said. "Some of them are trained in the Turkish language as well, so that creates these sorts of bonds. So, absolutely, I think that's part of their strategic plan. It kind of shows a longer-term vision as well."

Turkey enters political unknown after police raid opposition party headquarters

Turkey's main opposition CHP was thrown into fresh disarray Saturday as court-installed leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu made his first visit to party headquarters since a controversial court ruling scrapped a 2023 party primary. Ozgur Ozel, the CHP leader ousted by the decision, called for an urgent congress, telling thousands at an Ankara rally that the party "cannot be run by an appointed leader". The 21 May court ruling has plunged the CHP, Turkey's oldest political party, into a crisis. Three days after the order, riot police forced their way into the party's headquarters in Ankara, armed with pepper spray and batons, to remove CHP leader Ozgur Ozel – a key rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The court said Ozel's 2023 election as party leader was marred by irregularities, and restored the former leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu. In Turkey [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/turkey/], elections are overseen by the Supreme Election Council, which certified Ozel’s win, and its rulings are constitutionally final. It is just the latest move against the CHP, which scored a major victory over Erdogan's ruling AKP in the 2024 local elections and has since gained ground in the polls. PARTY PRIMARY Kilicdaroglu visited that party headquarters on Saturday to mark the final day of Eid, with a photo shared by his team on social media showing him seated at his desk with a copy of the party's bylaws placed prominently in front of him. "I will bring a ballot box for party congress before you as soon as possible," Kilicdaroglu said in an address, without providing a precise date. Ozel renewed his challenge to Kilicdaroglu to contest a party primary, saying he was willing to run "with whatever delegates he wants". With crowds chanting "Traitor Kemal!", Ozel said the party congress must be held "immediately", urging Kilicdaroglu to "hold a congress at once, with whichever delegates you wish. Give the party an elected leader without delay. The CHP does not accept appointments." He also demanded a primary election, saying that he would give up the party leadership if he received less than 85 percent support. Turkey expert Gonul Tol, a senior fellow at United States think tank, the Middle East Institute [https://mei.edu/] told RFI that Kilicdaroglu is "a convenient opponent for [President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan, because he "lost every major election during his 13 years at the helm of the party." Turkey riot police use tear gas to take opposition party HQ [https://www.rfi.fr/en/international-news/20260524-turkey-riot-police-use-tear-gas-to-take-opposition-party-hq-1] 'A BROADER CAMPAIGN' Ozel, 51, was elected leader at a party convention after 77-year-old Kilicdaroglu lost the 2023 presidential election. Ozel has revitalized the CHP, which now leads many opinion polls. Tol suggests Ozel's removal is part of a wider campaign. "This is the latest step in Erdogan's broader campaign to weaken the opposition," said Tol. “Last March, in another unprecedented move, authorities jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoglu – he is Erdogan's top political rival. And since then, the government has systematically targeted CHP mayors through court cases and corruption investigations,” she added. Crackdown on Turkish opposition intensifies, with further arrests of mayors [https://www.rfi.fr/en/podcasts/international-report/20250712-crackdown-on-turkish-opposition-intensifies-with-further-arrests-of-mayors] Addressing protesters, Ozel vowed to flood the streets and squares in defiance of what he calls a judicial coup, while also appealing his removal. Kilicdaroglu, meanwhile, is promising to restore order to the party and cleanse it of “corrupting forces”. The government insists the judiciary is independent and denies any political agenda. Erdogan has remained silent on the issue. Still, some observers see the opposition’s upheaval as part of Erdogan’s grander vision for Turkey’s future. Political commentator Sezin Oney from independent Turkish media outlet [https://www.politikyol.com/] Politikyol notes that Erdogan [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/recep-tayyip-erdogan/] is eager to shape the post-Erdogan era. "He wants to design the succession, most probably to have a close family member replacing him. So he wants to shape the whole [political] terrain accordingly." 'OPPOSITION PSYCHE' Erdogan has ruled Turkish politics for almost 25 years, buoyed by both his political acumen and a fragmented opposition. But in the past year, Ozel’s energetic leadership has powered over 100 mass rallies nationwide, even in Erdogan’s strongholds, as Ozel taps into rising public frustration over crackdowns on dissent and skyrocketing food prices. The removal of Ozel as CHP leader is seen as a pivotal moment for Turkish democracy. “Turkey is moving closer to a Russia-style system where the leader decides who the opposition will be and ensures no real surprise can emerge at the ballot box,” predicts Tol. “Why is Erdogan taking such a massive political and economic risk? Erdogan knows he cannot win genuinely free and fair elections anymore." With Erdogan enjoying close ties with US President Donald Trump [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/donald-trump/] and the European Union [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/european-union/] increasingly looking to Turkey as a security partner, under the looming Russian threat, international reaction has been muted over the latest move against the opposition. Turkey steps up as Europe's indispensable and uncomfortable defence partner [https://www.rfi.fr/en/podcasts/international-report/20260426-turkey-steps-up-as-europe-s-indispensable-and-uncomfortable-defence-partner] Speaking to tens of thousands of people at a rally in Izmir on Tuesday, Ozel vowed to escalate protests. Rumours are swirling that he could launch a new party. One opinion poll found only 11 percent of respondents approved of the removal of Ozel. Yet the legal noose appears to be tightening, with reports suggesting his parliamentary immunity could be stripped and that he may soon join other top party members behind bars. “We don't have the opposition in political representation form, but the people are there. The opposition psyche of the people is still there. So you cannot absolutely nullify the people or their political views,” said Oney. “We don't know what's going to come out of it. We can make predictions, but it's something totally novel and new in Turkey, and Turkish history as well."

Turkey courts Libya's rival factions in bid to further Mediterranean ambitions

In a bold move by Ankara, Turkey this week brought together Libya’s two rival militaries for international exercises. While firmly supporting the Tripoli-based regime, Turkey is now extending an olive branch to the Benghazi administration, aiming to steady Libya and broaden its sway across the region. For the first time, Libya’s two military forces participated internationally together under one flag. According to the Turkish defence ministry, 501 personnel from both Libyan armies joined Turkey’s Efes 2026 military exercises. “There needs to be one unified army in Libya [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/libya/], one unified military force,” said Libya expert Aya Burweila of the Athens-based Centre for Hellenic and Mediterranean Studies. “I think these joint exercises help with that. They help facilitate closer cooperation with both sides, and that can only be a good thing.” Libya has been split since 2014, with the Government of National Unity ruling the west from Tripoli [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/tripoli/] and the Government of National Stability holding the east in Benghazi [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/benghazi/]. While Ankara has long championed Tripoli, analyst Burweila suggests that May’s joint exercises signal a new Turkish push to engage with Benghazi. “This is a huge, practical pivot towards the east [by Turkey]. It has huge implications for Libya’s stability. Turkey’s position now is that it has good relations with both sides,” said Burweila. “It’s not just joint military exercises. There are business interests, there are sales of weapons and drones, and so forth.”  Turkey and Italy boost cooperation in bid to shape Libya’s political future [https://www.rfi.fr/en/podcasts/international-report/20250813-turkey-and-italy-boost-cooperation-in-bid-to-shape-libya-political-future] ENERGY RESERVES For Ankara, courting the Benghazi administration, led by military commander Khalifa Haftar [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/khalifa-haftar/], is all about expanding Turkey’s influence in the eastern Mediterranean, argues Jalel Harchaoui of the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based defence think tank.  Harchaoui said Ankara needs Haftar’s support to enforce a 2019 memorandum of understanding that Turkey signed with the Tripoli administration to create a joint exclusive economic zone in Libyan waters.  “Now, if Ankara wants to enforce it, which it does, it needs to have the Haftar family on board,” Harchaoui explained. “The Haftar family can deliver on two very necessary things: the parliamentary ratification, because the parliament happens to be controlled by the Haftar family, and also the part of the coast that is involved in this arrangement is eastern Libya, not western Libya.” However, the Turkey-Libya exclusive economic zone, believed to have large untapped energy reserves, is strongly opposed by Greece [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/greece/] and Cyprus [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/cyprus/], who claim it violates their territorial waters. Neighbouring Egypt [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/egypt/] and Israel [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/israel/] have also voiced concerns. Haftar’s eastern Libyan government shares their reluctance. “Eastern Libya has very good relations with Egypt and has cordial relations with Greece as well. And this memorandum, at least from their side, violates their rights,” explained Libya analyst Burweila.  She added: “I think what lots of Libyans feel is: 'this fight is not our fight. We don't want to be involved in this kind of dispute.' So while this is a big priority for Turkey, it is not a priority for Libyans, and I think everybody there would prefer to kick this can down the road.” Egypt and Turkey's closer ties spark hope for peace among Libya’s rival factions [https://www.rfi.fr/en/podcasts/international-report/20241027-egypt-and-turkey-s-closer-ties-spark-hope-for-peace-among-libya-s-rival-factions] CARROT AND STICK Throughout 2025, Ankara wooed Haftar and his son Saddam, chief of staff of the Libyan National Army [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/libyan-national-army/], but saw little progress. According to analyst Harchaoui, Turkey [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/turkey/] has since toughened its stance, zeroing in on Haftar’s late-year military backing of Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Turkish-made combat drones have been pictured [https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/egypts-drone-deployment-border-raises-stakes-sudans-civil-war-2026-02-02/] on airbases in southern Egypt, which like Turkey backs the Sudanese army in its fight against the paramilitary RSF. According to a New York Times investigation [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/01/world/africa/egypt-sudan-drones.html], they have been used for strikes in Sudan [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/sudan/]. “This was a new development,” said Harchaoui, “It was basically Turkey saying, 'I smiled for most of 2025, and you did nothing for me. And you will have seen two faces. You will have seen the carrot, obviously, but also the stick.'” In April, Turkey delivered a new batch of military drones to Haftar’s army, continuing this carrot-and-stick policy. The Turkish defence ministry says it aims to hold further joint military exercises with both Libyan armies. While Turkey is stepping up its efforts to stabilise Libya, its goal of securing joint control of a huge swathe of the eastern Mediterranean [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/mediterranean/] threatens to drag the country further into an increasingly bitter regional rivalry.