Lyt til WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

Gold Pullback in Focus * Gold surged to $3,500 before a sharp pullback to $3,321. * Simon breaks down what caused the spike — including comments from Trump about Powell and rate cuts. * Weekly chart shows potential kangaroo tail reversal — possible zone to watch: $2,800–$3,000. Gold | Weekly | 23 April 2025 Trump, Powell & IMF Forecast Downgrades * Trump critiques Powell and Fed policy while possibly setting up a scapegoat. * IMF cuts global growth forecasts from 3.2% to 2.8%. * South Africa's expected GDP is now at 1% — far below Treasury’s 1.9% target. Rare Earths: Not So Rare, Still Strategic * China's dominance in rare earths: 69% production, 90% processing. * Simon looks at the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) as a thematic play. * Pros & cons of investing in rare earths — not fully sold on the ETF himself. Flashback: 5 Years Since Negative Oil * Remember April 2020? Oil went negative (-$40.32)! * Breakdown of why it happened (physical settlement, lack of storage). * One of the wildest moments in market history. 21 April 2020 | WTO goes negative New Battery Tech from China’s CATL * Sodium-ion batteries could rival lithium: cheaper, safer, fast-charging. * CATL is profitable and pays a dividend, but listed in Shenzhen, making access tricky. Aspen's R2 Billion Hit * Brief mention of Aspen's contract dispute and loss. * Lack of transparency continues to damage trust in management. Simon Brown [http://www.simonbrown.co.za/portfolio] * I hold ungeared positions. [http://www.simonbrown.co.za/portfolio] All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order [https://www.koyfin.com/get-discount-from-a-friend/?ref_id=OkPOCaUd3dgHK16XlMxXM]

🌍 Global Markets Rundown * Goldman Sachs suggests gold could plausibly hit $4,500/oz by year-end. * Gold is currently around $3,200/oz, but volatility and uncertainty are driving prices higher. * Gold miners are benefiting from the price surge, with big leverage showing up in earnings. * Example: Pan African Resources made $900/oz at $2,250; could make $2,900 at $3,250. * Big upside still possible if gold just holds or drifts higher. * SA gold stocks (YTD performance): * Pan African Resources +106% * Harmony +76% * AngloGold Ashanti* +72% * Gold Fields +30% (with mine-related issues) Gold | Weekly chart |15 April 2025 📉 Recession Watch * Larry Fink (BlackRock) & Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan): “US may already be in a recession.” * Trump’s constant tariff changes add more uncertainty. * Growth is slowing, and inflation is stubbornly high (risk of stagflation). * Treasury buyers are hesitant—money is going into gold, not US 10-year bonds. * China's potential bond moves could rattle the entire global system. 💸 Currency Check * The Rand recovered from nearly R20/USD to around R18.75/USD. * Driven by dollar weakness, global uncertainty, and DXY dipping below 100. * Local support for ZAR remains tentative but improving. 📊 ETFs & Resources Rally * Satrix RESI ETF* now ~50% gold miners, up ~44% YTD. * Resource-driven tax windfalls (like in 2021/22) show how profitable miners benefit the broader economy. 📈 Local Market Highlights * Purple Group* (EasyEquities) finally breaks out: * Strong results: HEPS up 204%. * Thrive initiative charging inactive accounts adds meaningful revenue. * Stock rallied from 92c to 118c in just over a week. * Possible end to aggressive selling pressure—more upside ahead? Simon Brown [http://www.simonbrown.co.za/portfolio] * I hold ungeared positions. [http://www.simonbrown.co.za/portfolio] All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order [https://www.koyfin.com/get-discount-from-a-friend/?ref_id=OkPOCaUd3dgHK16XlMxXM]

🇿🇦 South African Budget & Political Risk * Budget framework passed (barely) – VAT increase to 15.5% effective 1 May. * GNU under pressure as ANC signals reformulation talks with partners. * Rand volatility: Touched nearly R19.90/USD before recovering to ~R18.70. 💥 Global Markets in Turmoil * S&P 500 down 18.25%, Nasdaq down 22.5%. * Massive selloff: One of the steepest 4-day drops since 1950. * But historically, markets rebound over 1, 3, and 5 years post similar dips. S&P500 | Weekly | 08 April 2025 🇺🇸 US Tariffs – Trump’s Economic Disruption * 104% tariffs on Chinese goods kick in; highest in 100+ years. * Aimed at reshaping global trade, raising revenue (~$600B–$1T est). * Massive uncertainty over whether Trump reverses course. * Impacts already visible: Nintendo delays Switch 2 US preorders. 🌐 Global Repercussions & Recession Risk * Supply chain shocks, rising costs, and job losses in producing countries (Vietnam, China). * Major US banks now see a >55% chance of global recession. * Countries shifting alliances; US being carved out. 🏦 US Treasuries Drama * Wild 10-year yield swings overnight – unusual volume raises eyebrows. * Could China be retaliating by offloading US debt? 💡 What To Do As An Investor * Avoid panic. Focus on quality and defensive stocks. * Opportunities: * SA: Capitec, Shoprite*, BIDCorp, RSA Retail Savings Bonds [https://justonelap.com/earn-11-with-retail-savings-bonds/] * Global: Ferrari (Race), Johnson & Johnson, ASML, Europe [https://justonelap.com/etf-understanding-sygeu/] * Sectors: Healthcare (STXHLT), Tobacco, Alcohol, Staples Simon Brown [http://www.simonbrown.co.za/portfolio] * I hold ungeared positions. [http://www.simonbrown.co.za/portfolio] All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order [https://www.koyfin.com/get-discount-from-a-friend/?ref_id=OkPOCaUd3dgHK16XlMxXM] Chapters 00:00 Market Overview and Budget Implications 02:59 Global Economic Concerns and Market Reactions 05:54 Trade Wars and Tariff Impacts 09:10 Investment Strategies in Uncertain Times 12:04 Sector Analysis: Opportunities and Risks 14:58 Future Market Predictions and Closing Thoughts

Simon Brown chats with Glynn Allen from Shyft Global on the history of the app and the recent introduction of JSE shares and a look ahead to new features.

S&P 500 Bounce? * After a rough start, Monday’s trading saw a small recovery. But with Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariff announcements looming, markets could be in for more volatility. Budget Vote Approaches: * The ANC lacks votes to pass the postponed budget, with opposition parties like MK and EFF holding out. Political and economic uncertainty remains high. Commodities on a Quiet Rally: * Gold (+19.5%), Copper (+26.5%), and Rhodium (+24.5%) lead the way, while oil and aluminium lag. The CRB Index is up 5.4% year-to-date. Atlanta Fed GDP Now Update: * Q1 GDP estimate revised to -0.5% from -2.8%. Adjustments for gold trade data make the outlook slightly less dire. Amazon at a Discount? * Stock down 20% from its highs, with a historically low P/E ratio of 34. Analysts see upside potential. Amazon | Weekly Chat | 31 March 2025 Johnson & Johnson’s Dividend Appeal: * Trading near $165, with a potential drop to $150 making its 3% yield even more attractive. Johnson & Johnson | Weekly Chat | 31 March 2025 New ETNs on the JSE: [https://justonelap.com/buy-asml-novo-nordisk-lvmh-palantir-and-more-etns-on-the-jse/] * Nvidia, Palantir, Novo Nordisk, and more available via FNB, offering exposure to top global stocks with local accessibility. Simon Brown [http://www.simonbrown.co.za/portfolio] * I hold ungeared positions. [http://www.simonbrown.co.za/portfolio] All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order [https://www.koyfin.com/get-discount-from-a-friend/?ref_id=OkPOCaUd3dgHK16XlMxXM] 00:00 Market Overview and Economic Indicators 03:09 US Tariff Implications and Market Reactions 05:45 Commodities Performance and Economic Impact 09:03 Stock Analysis: Amazon's Market Position 12:00 Stock Analysis: Johnson & Johnson's Stability 14:38 Investment Strategies and Innovations