Update for June 2026

Update for June 2026

This report covers developments in May and June 2026. The dominant theme was the announcement of an initial US-Iran peace agreement, which triggered a sharp rally in global equities and a significant decline in oil prices. Despite improving market sentiment, uncertainty remains over the durability of the ceasefire and the future of Iran’s nuclear programme. In the US, the economy remained resilient, with 172,000 jobs added in May and unemployment holding at 4.3%. Inflation rose to 4.2%, driven largely by energy prices, while core inflation remained relatively contained. The Fed left rates unchanged but adopted a more hawkish tone, with markets beginning to price in the possibility of a rate hike later in the year. In Europe, inflation increased to 3.2%, prompting the ECB to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%, its first hike since 2023. Policymakers cited inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict and warned that the outlook remains highly uncertain. Global equity markets advanced, led by AI-related stocks. The S&P 500 gained 2.0%, while European markets also rebounded as falling oil prices improved the outlook for energy-importing economies. Japan’s Nikkei surged 17.7% to a record high, while Hong Kong equities remained weak. Oil prices fell sharply as investors anticipated a normalization of supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude dropped 27% to about $81 per barrel. Gold fell 7.5% and Bitcoin declined 17.3% as investors rotated away from defensive assets and cryptocurrencies. Bond yields generally declined as geopolitical tensions eased, while the US dollar strengthened on expectations of tighter monetary policy. In Cyprus, inflation rose to 3.5%, while government bond yields moved lower in line with broader European markets.

Update for May 2026

In this episode, we unpack the major market and macroeconomic developments shaping global investment risk during April and May 2026. The discussion centres on a market environment defined by resilient US equities, persistent inflation pressures, elevated energy prices, and rising geopolitical uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict.   US equity markets continued to show remarkable strength, with the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high before pulling back slightly. Much of the rally has been concentrated in artificial intelligence and large-cap technology stocks, while traditional sectors such as banking and cyclical industries lagged behind. The podcast explores whether this narrow market leadership is sustainable given rising bond yields and growing macroeconomic risks.   A key theme is inflation. In the United States, inflation accelerated to 3.8%, driven largely by surging energy prices and broader shelter-cost increases. The Federal Reserve held rates steady, but internal divisions among policymakers revealed increasing uncertainty about whether future moves may involve further tightening or eventual cuts. The appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair also introduced a new dimension to market expectations.   Europe faces additional challenges due to its dependence on imported energy. European equities underperformed US markets as higher oil and LNG prices weighed on growth expectations and corporate earnings. Meanwhile, bond yields rose across both the US and Europe as investors reassessed inflation and interest rate risks.   The episode also examines commodities and alternative assets. Oil prices surged because of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, while gold weakened under pressure from higher real yields and a stronger US dollar. Bitcoin benefited from renewed risk appetite in technology-focused sectors.   Finally, the discussion highlights Cyprus-specific developments, including rising inflation, higher sovereign yields, and strong banking-sector performance led by Bank of Cyprus’ solid first-quarter results. Overall, the episode paints a picture of markets balancing optimism in technology against mounting geopolitical and inflationary risks.

Update for April 2026

This report reviews developments in March and April 2026. In the US, job growth rebounded strongly to 178,000, while unemployment fell to 4.3%, though driven by a shrinking labor force. Inflation surged to 3.3%, mainly due to a sharp spike in energy prices linked to the Iran conflict, while core inflation remained contained. The Fed remains cautious, with low expectations for near-term rate cuts. In Europe, inflation rose to 2.6%, with energy contributing significantly. The ECB signaled rising upside risks to inflation due to the ongoing conflict but is holding off on immediate policy action while assessing the situation. Oil prices remained highly volatile, peaking near $118 before stabilizing around $90–$100 amid ceasefire developments and ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Supply risks remain elevated, with disruptions affecting global energy markets and even leading to jet fuel shortages in Europe. Global equities rebounded sharply, with the S&P 500 up 8.1% and reaching new highs, driven by optimism around a ceasefire. European markets also posted strong gains. However, risks remain that prolonged high oil prices could reverse this rally. Bond yields were mixed, with US yields slightly lower and European yields stable to slightly higher. Gold recovered modestly after prior declines, while Bitcoin rose around 5%. The US dollar weakened, while the euro and sterling strengthened. In Cyprus, inflation increased to 1.5%, while 10-year yields declined. US banks reported strong Q1 earnings driven by trading income, though concerns emerged around private credit exposure at some institutions.

Update for March 2026

This report covers macroeconomic and market developments in February and March 2026. In the US, the labor market weakened, with payrolls declining by 92,000 and unemployment rising to 4.4%, although wage growth remained firm. Inflation held steady at 2.4%, but rising oil prices are expected to push inflation higher. The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, signaling caution as it balances stronger growth with rising inflation risks driven by energy prices. Geopolitical tensions dominated markets, as the US and Israel attacked Iran, triggering retaliation and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This severely disrupted global energy supplies and sent oil prices sharply higher. Brent surged above $100, with risks of further spikes depending on the duration of the conflict. Euro area inflation rose slightly to 1.9%, while the ECB held rates steady but signaled a potential shift toward rate hikes as inflation risks increase. Markets are now pricing in multiple ECB hikes in 2026 if energy-driven inflation persists. Global equities declined amid rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty. The S&P 500 fell 4.2%, while European markets dropped more sharply due to higher energy dependence. Bond yields rose significantly in both the US and Europe as inflation concerns re-emerged. Gold fell despite geopolitical stress, as investors liquidated positions amid rising yields, while Bitcoin rebounded by over 10%. The US dollar strengthened, while the euro and sterling weakened. European bank stocks declined sharply due to concerns over economic slowdown and rising credit risks linked to higher energy costs.