The Glass-Half-Full Trap? | 2026 Iran Complacency & Inflation with Jeff Klingelhofer

The Glass-Half-Full Trap? | 2026 Iran Complacency & Inflation with Jeff Klingelhofer

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave sits down with fixed-income portfolio manager and veteran Fed observer Jeff Klingelhofer of Aristotle Pacific Capital. Recorded July 7th 2026. Jeff shares his perspective on the monumental regime shift at the Federal Reserve following Kevin Warsh’s first official FOMC meeting and press conference in June. We pull back the curtain on the Fed's "triple mandate," why the era of aggressive forward guidance and central bank transparency is likely coming to an end, and why the market's "glass-half-full" complacency regarding the conflict with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz introduces significant hidden risk. The conversation also breaks down the structural mechanics of the flattening yield curve, why a rate hike is currently more statistically probable than a cut, and how to intelligently structure the 40% fixed-income sleeve of a balanced portfolio using intermediate-duration Treasuries yielding mid-5% to low-6% returns. 📈 Topics Covered • Navigating the Fed's learning curve: Assessing incoming Chair Kevin Warsh's initial policy moves and the formation of five new task forces • The true definition of the Federal Reserve’s triple mandate: Balancing price stability, maximum employment, and moderate long-term interest rates • The unwinding of Fed transparency: Why a high-inflation environment requires significantly less forward guidance than the zero-rate eras of the past • Analyzing Jerome Powell's historical legacy: Major wins during the global pandemic balanced against being too slow to acknowledge systemic inflation in 2021–2022 • Deconstructing the yield curve: How Warsh's inflation-fighting credibility is driving front-end rates up while narrowing long-term uncertainty • Debunking rate-cut expectations: Why the Fed is likely to remain completely on hold indefinitely unless a full-blown economic recession materializes • Geopolitical complacency: The dangerous disconnect between active Middle East tensions, erratic oil prices, and baseline market expectations • The structural strength of the US Dollar: Evaluating interest rate differentials and the rising cost of servicing US national debt (now consuming 20% of revenue) • Redefining the 60/40 portfolio: Positioning into high-quality, intermediate-duration (3-to-7 year) credit as a true defensive asset ballast 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

Entry Points Are Absolute | 2026 Minimalist Charting with Carter Worth

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by legendary technical analyst Carter Worth, Founder and CEO of Worth Charting and CNBC's "Chart Master." Recorded July 1st 2026. Carter shares his timeless, price-and-volume-centric approach to market analysis, stripping away the noise of macro headlines and complex oscillators. We dig into why context is the ultimate lens for understanding price action, the enduring value of hand-drawing charts to truly feel the rhythm of institutional money flow, and how the current market's severe tech bifurcation signals a classic "shooting the generals last" environment. The conversation also explores Carter's core risk management principle that "entry points are absolute, exit points are subjective," alongside the exact data-science rules driving his newly launched Worth Charting Options Income ETF (WRTH). If you enjoyed this episode's insights and would like to dive deeper, please check out Carter's website at: https://www.worthcharting.com/ [https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqbHd0Y2ZicnE4a2JhYjB0ekhIeE9TaGVlUTV5d3xBQ3Jtc0tsVXowRktvMWkwUGZuREVfRTNFcVk4YXlQdUR4VEhHWnQ5SXdsQWthVmdmNG5mNFdPODZYeFc4U3o2cTZpN2dBNWdWRVJselYzcTJsOThpTXowOWlMbXNRZmlveUJ4emdBcmlXMmtCSG42emtNU1FJNA&q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.worthcharting.com%2F&v=3cPXxmYfNH0] Also check out the Worth Charting Options ETF!: https://worthchartinggroup.com/ [https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqbjdLZEJ6SVFUSXF6SV9RRjNNVk44Z0NSSXpFZ3xBQ3Jtc0trNFhNNzJFWjh2b3g1Q0FuUFpCTlNwVUhTdlRwbkpRMWNnQW4ydWtsMzNwSVRGeWJOeldUVldLQktfVl8yYUJBSk9jQkZWRXdKeTVqWGxUMkd0N0Y0bjM5RDNMRFlyRzFFU2wxWlBxYTNzRmNIaDRNSQ&q=https%3A%2F%2Fworthchartinggroup.com%2F&v=3cPXxmYfNH0] 📈 Topics Covered • The fundamental philosophy of price action: Why the study of price and volume ultimately trumps corporate fundamentals • Contextualizing the 2026 market sequence: Interpreting June’s sloppy, sideways consolidation as a healthy, normative pause following May’s aggressive post-conflict recovery • Minimalist technical tools: Eliminating analytical clutter by focusing strictly on the high, low, close, volume, relative strength, and the 150-day moving average • Lessons from mentor Vincent Boening: Embracing the "lost art" of updating graph paper charts by hand to accurately gauge the physical behavior of capital • The fragility of tech bifurcation: Navigating a market where investors cluster into a shrinking handful of overextended semiconductor generals while abandoning entire software spaces • The contrarian case for energy: Why severe relative underperformance has left defensive giants like Exxon and Chevron "so bad they're good" contrarian buys • Managing the downside: Why there is nothing wrong with being wrong, but why sticking with a high-volume gap-down is a catastrophic error • Inside the WRTH ETF: Utilizing cash-secured, out-of-the-money strangles on large-caps specifically after a 10% earnings gap to capture immediate volatility crush and time decay 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

Separation of Money and State | 2026 Decentralized Finance with Mike Willis

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Mike Willis, CEO of Cyber Hornet ETFs. Recorded June 30th 2026. Mike shares his journey from spending 30 years in traditional finance (TradFi) to fully embracing decentralized finance (DeFi) after diving into the immutable math behind Bitcoin. We dig into the stark contrast between unchecked fiat currency debasement and Bitcoin's absolute scarcity, why the massive energy expenditure used for mining is actually a foundational security feature, and the structural advantages of a 75/25 (S&P 500/Bitcoin) portfolio allocation. The conversation also explores how Cyber Hornet's monthly rebalancing mechanism acts as a vital guardrail to protect clients from devastating "crypto winters" while still allowing them to capture outsized upside. 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 🎯 Upgrade your market awareness with Seeking Alpha Premium https://marketmisbehavior.com/seekingalpha 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior 📈 Topics Covered • Mike's transition from Wall Street traditional finance to embracing Bitcoin and the DeFi ecosystem • The contrast between the Federal Reserve's unchecked monetary printing and Bitcoin's hard-capped 21-million coin scarcity • Why the significant electricity cost required for Bitcoin mining (roughly $53,000 per coin) serves as a critical network feature, not a bug • The psychology behind Cyber Hornet's BBB ETF: Combining 75% S&P 500 with 25% Bitcoin to find the "sleep-at-night" volatility sweet spot • Why a strict monthly rebalancing strategy is the ultimate key to surviving 50-70% drawdowns during "crypto winters" • Why pure technical analysis works exceptionally well for analyzing Bitcoin due to its lack of corporate management or product cycles • How decentralized, borderless networks offer frictionless financial sovereignty to the two billion unbanked people worldwide 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

When Math Meets the Market | The Kelly Criterion in 2026 with Andrew Skatoff

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Andrew Skatoff, CEO and CIO of Bancreek Capital Advisors. Andrew shares his journey from traditional, deep-dive fundamental value investing to a highly systematic, quantitative approach. We dig into the data science behind the Kelly Criterion and how to apply gambling's "edge and odds" to optimize stock position sizing without risking gambler's ruin. The conversation explores the massive tax and behavioral benefits of the ETF wrapper, why the sweet spot for portfolio concentration sits between 30 and 50 stocks, and the strategy behind his new Billionaire's Club ETF, which uses founder wealth creation as a definitive signal for structural business advantages. If you enjoyed today's interview with Andrew Skatoff, be sure to check out his firms Billionaire's Club ETF!  https://www.billionairesclubetf.com/ And don't forget the book we discussed, Fortune's Formula. If you would like to pick up a copy for yourself, or just see what the book is all about, check out this link!  https://amzn.to/3SpOq5h 📈 Topics Covered • Andrew's transition from traditional fundamental value investing to a data-driven systematic approach • Understanding the Kelly Criterion: How to mathematically size positions based on edge and odds • The danger of going "Super Kelly" and why over-betting destroys long-term compounding • Identifying structurally advantaged businesses (monopolies, high margin stability) using volatility metrics • Why the ideal portfolio concentration sweet spot sits between 25 and 50 stocks • The psychological and tax advantages of using the ETF wrapper to eliminate behavioral anchoring and manage turnover • Lessons from the Great Financial Crisis: Why the "path" of volatility matters just as much as the overall return • The strategy behind the new Billionaire's Club ETF: Using founder wealth creation as a long-term momentum and durability signal 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

You have to Feel the Charts | Market Momentum in 2026 with John Kolovos

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by John Kolovos, Chief Technical Strategist at Macro Risk Advisors and President of the CMT Association. Recorded in late June 2026. John shares his top strategies for navigating the mature phases of a bull market and how to spot crucial momentum divergences when the "character" of the market begins to change. We dig into why momentum is the only true leading indicator, the danger of the US Dollar Index breaking out and flattening the yield curve, and how to combine textbook measured moves with Elliott Wave extensions to pick precise upside targets. The conversation also explores how to embrace uncomfortable market concentration using relative strength and honors the lost art of hand-drawing Point and Figure charts. 📈 Topics Covered • Understanding the "Momentum Trifecta": Combining price, volume, and breadth to confirm buy/sell signals • Recognizing "Good" vs. "Bad" overbought conditions when exiting a V-bottom or entering a mature trend • Why relative strength is the ultimate tool for navigating uncomfortable market concentration in institutional portfolios • How a US Dollar Index (DXY) breakout above 105.5 could aggressively flatten the yield curve and trigger a macro "risk-off" event • Why seasonal weakness (the "Sell in May" strategy) should make you highly skeptical of unseasonal market strength • The tactical case for a pullback in crude oil and a broader secular bearish trend in precious metals (Gold/Silver) • Combining traditional Edwards and Magee measured moves with Elliott Wave Fibonacci extensions to set price targets • Remembering the legacy of Steve Shobin and the "lost art" of hand-drawing charts to feel the rhythm of the tape 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.