Brief: Bounced, Not Cleared

Brief: Bounced, Not Cleared

Equities bought the dip from the post-FOMC selloff while the bond market quietly flattened, two time horizons reading the same data and reaching opposite conclusions. Ukraine launched its largest drone attack on Moscow since the full-scale invasion, Noam Shazeer left Google for OpenAI, and the hotte

Super Brief: Bounced, Not Cleared — Super Brief

Bounced, Not Cleared. The S&P recovered 1.08% to 7,500 and the Nasdaq jumped nearly 2%, a clean post-FOMC dip-buy. But the bounce came on no new information, and the bond market did not follow. The curve flattened from the long end, the shape that preceded the policy reversals of 1995, 2006, and 2019, not the soft landin

Brief: Rates Held. Guidance Didn't.

The Fed held rates exactly as expected and the market sold off anyway, because the real move was not the decision but the information architecture around it. The dot plot tilted sharply hawkish, Iran signed its nuclear MOU but Trump revealed a ballistic missile concession at the G7, and the largest

Super Brief: Warsh Walks In — Super Brief

Warsh Walks In. The Fed delivers its first decision under Chair Kevin Warsh this afternoon. A hold at 3.50 to 3.75% is near certain, so the real information sits in two places: a dot plot that may show the cycle's first hawkish tilt, and Warsh's signaled retreat from forward guidance. If both land, markets will pri

Brief: Warsh Walks In

The Dow closed at a record while the Nasdaq fell in the year's broadest tech rotation. The Fed delivers its first rate decision under Kevin Warsh this afternoon, the Iran deal signing is confirmed for Friday in Geneva, and Trump publicly rebuked Netanyahu at the G7 over Lebanon.