My Worst Investment Ever Podcast
Gratis podcast

My Worst Investment Ever Podcast

Podcast af Andrew Stotz

Welcome to My Worst Investment Ever podcast hosted by Your Worst Podcast Host, Andrew Stotz, where you will hear stories of loss to keep you winning. In our community, we know that to win in investing you must take the risk, but to win big, you’ve got to reduce it. Your Worst Podcast Host, Andrew Stotz, Ph.D., CFA, is also the CEO of A. Stotz Investment Research and A. Stotz Academy, which helps people create, grow, measure, and protect their wealth. To find more stories like this, previous episodes, and resources to help you reduce your risk, visit https://myworstinvestmentever.com/ 

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836 episoder
episode Enrich Your Future 06: Market Efficiency and the Case of Pete Rose artwork
Enrich Your Future 06: Market Efficiency and the Case of Pete Rose
In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing [https://amzn.to/4ebG33x]. In this series, they discuss Chapter 06: Market Efficiency and the Case of Pete Rose. LEARNING: Don’t try to pick stocks or time the market.   > “The evidence is very clear. The stocks retail investors buy underperform after they buy them, and the stocks they sell go on to outperform at face value.” > Larry Swedroe   In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing [https://amzn.to/4ebG33x]. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over the 30 years or so that he’s been trying to help investors. Larry is the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners [https://buckinghamwealthpartners.com/]. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks [https://myworstinvestmentever.com/ep645-larry-swedroe-beware-of-idiosyncratic-risks/]. Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 06: Market Efficiency and the Case of Pete Rose. CHAPTER 06: MARKET EFFICIENCY AND THE CASE OF PETE ROSE Many people have difficulty understanding why smart investors working hard cannot gain an advantage over average investors who simply accept market returns. In this chapter, Larry uses an analogy in the world of sports betting to explain why the “collective wisdom of the market” is a difficult competitor. THE CASE OF PETE ROSE Pete Rose was one of the greatest players in the history of baseball, finishing his career with more hits than any other player. It seems logical that Rose would have a significant advantage over other bettors. Rose had 24 years of experience as a player and four years as a manager. In addition to having inside information on his own team, as a manager, he also studied the teams he competed against. Yet, despite these advantages, Rose lost $4,200 betting on his own team, $36,000 betting on other teams in the National League, and $7,000 betting on American League games. This reveals that if an expert like Rose, who had access to private information, could not “beat the market,” then it’s very unlikely that ordinary individuals without similar knowledge would be able to do so. SPORTS BETTING MARKET EFFICIENCY Larry shares other examples of the efficiency of sports betting markets. One such example is a study covering six NBA seasons in which Professor Raymond Sauer found [https://jogoremoto.pt/docs/extra/8qbunr.pdf] that the average difference between point spreads and actual point differences was astonishingly low—less than one-quarter of one point. In horse racing, the final odds, which reflect the judgment of all bettors, reliably predict the outcome—the favorite wins most often, the second favorite is next most likely to win, and so on. This predictability of the market further emphasizes the futility of trying to exploit mispricings and the need for a more reliable investment strategy. Larry goes on to quote James Surowiecki, author of “The Wisdom of Crowds [https://www.amazon.com/Wisdom-Crowds-James-Surowiecki/dp/0385721706],” who demonstrated that as long as people are acting independently (not in herds), they exhibit what might be called “collective wisdom.” With regard to sports betting, that means the market’s collective wisdom in setting point spreads (or odds) is tough competition to overcome, especially after the expenses of the effort. Larry advises sports bettors to have a small entertainment account to bet on their favorite team and not to invest their entire retirement account. The same holds true of investing. The market’s collective wisdom in setting prices is a difficult competition to overcome, especially after the expenses of the effort. Recognizing this, prudent investors don’t attempt to beat the market by trying to exploit mispricings. Instead, they invest in a globally diversified portfolio of funds (such as index funds) that invest systematically and do so in a transparent and replicable manner. In that way, they earn market returns and do so in a highly tax-efficient manner. And the evidence demonstrates that they outperform the vast majority of investors —institutional and individual. NO RETAIL INVESTORS TO EXPLOIT The evidence is clear. On average, the stocks retail investors buy underperform after they buy them, and the stocks they sell outperform at face value. The problem is there aren’t enough retail investors to exploit because they’re smart, talented, and have access to the best databases. But still, the market is too efficient, and the competition’s too tough. Larry insists that retail investors shouldn’t try to pick stocks or time the market unless they have true inside information. This advice is crucial for investors, guiding them away from risky strategies and towards more reliable investment methods. FURTHER READING 1. Douglas Coate, “Market Efficiency in the Baseball Betting Market: The Case of Pete Rose [https://www.academia.edu/82650751/Market_Efficiency_in_the_Baseball_Betting_Market_The_Case_of_Pete_Rose],” Rutgers University Newark Working Paper 2008-003, January 2008. 2. Raymond D. Sauer, “The Economics of Wagering Markets [https://jogoremoto.pt/docs/extra/8qbunr.pdf],” Journal of Economic Literature, 36, p. 2021-64. 3. James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds [https://amzn.to/45XSOec] (Doubleday, 2004). DID YOU MISS OUT ON THE PREVIOUS CHAPTERS? CHECK THEM OUT: * Enrich Your Future 01: The Determinants of the Risk and Return of Stocks and Bonds [https://myworstinvestmentever.com/enrich-your-future-01-the-determinants-of-the-risk-and-return-of-stocks-and-bonds/] * Enrich Your Future 02: How Markets Set Prices [https://myworstinvestmentever.com/enrich-your-future-02-how-markets-set-prices/] * Enrich Your Future 03: Persistence of Performance: Athletes Versus Investment Managers [https://myworstinvestmentever.com/enrich-your-future-03-persistence-of-performance-athletes-versus-investment-managers/] * Enrich Your Future 04: Why Is Persistent Outperformance So Hard to Find? [https://myworstinvestmentever.com/enrich-your-future-04-why-is-persistent-outperformance-so-hard-to-find/] * Enrich Your Future 05: Great Companies Do Not Make High-Return Investments [https://myworstinvestmentever.com/enrich-your-future-05-great-companies-do-not-make-high-return-investments/] ABOUT LARRY SWEDROE Larry Swedroe [https://www.linkedin.com/in/larry-swedroe-18778267/] is head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners [https://buckinghamwealthpartners.com/]. Since joining the firm in 1996, Larry has spent his time, talent, and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing with an enthusiasm few can match. Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need [https://amzn.to/3HC9QnZ].” He has authored or co-authored 18 books. Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television on various outlets. Larry is a prolific writer, regularly contributing to multiple outlets, including AlphaArchitect [https://alphaarchitect.com/blog/], Advisor Perspectives [https://www.advisorperspectives.com/search?q=Larry+Swedroe], and Wealth Management [https://www.wealthmanagement.com/search/node/Larry%20Swedroe].   [spp-transcript]   CONNECT WITH LARRY SWEDROE * LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/larry-swedroe-18778267/] * Twitter [https://twitter.com/larryswedroe] * Website [https://buckinghamwealthpartners.com/] * Books [https://amzn.to/3JfpUgx] ANDREW’S BOOKS * How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market [https://amzn.to/3qrfHjX] * My Worst Investment Ever [https://amzn.to/2PDApAo] * 9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them [https://amzn.to/3v6ip1Y] * Transform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 Points [https://amzn.to/3emBO8M] ANDREW’S ONLINE PROGRAMS * Valuation Master Class [https://valuationmasterclass.com/] * The Become a Better Investor Community [https://astotz.kartra.com/page/become-a-better-investor-community] * How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/how-to-start-building-your-wealth-investing-in-the-stock-market] * Finance Made Ridiculously Simple [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/finance-made-ridiculously-simple] * FVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the World [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/fvmr-investing-quantamental-investing-across-the-world] * Become a Great Presenter and Increase Your Influence [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/gp] * Transform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 Points [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/transformyourbusiness] * Achieve Your Goals [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/achieve-your-goals] CONNECT WITH ANDREW STOTZ: * astotz.com [https://www.astotz.com/] * LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewstotz/] * Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/andrewstotzpage] * Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/andstotz/] * Threads [https://www.threads.net/@andstotz] * Twitter [https://twitter.com/Andrew_Stotz] * YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/c/andrewstotzpage] * My Worst Investment Ever Podcast [https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/my-worst-investment-ever-podcast/id1416554991?mt=2]
15. jul. 2024 - 33 min
episode Enrich Your Future 05: Great Companies Do Not Make High-Return Investments artwork
Enrich Your Future 05: Great Companies Do Not Make High-Return Investments
In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing [https://amzn.to/4ebG33x]. In this series, they discuss Chapter 05: Great Companies Do Not Make High-Return Investments. LEARNING:  A higher PE doesn’t mean a higher expected return.   > “A higher PE doesn’t mean a higher expected return. It may mean that you’re paying a high price for high expected growth and safety because the company is really strong.” > Larry Swedroe   In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing [https://amzn.to/4ebG33x]. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over the 30 years or so that he’s been trying to help investors. Larry is the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners [https://buckinghamwealthpartners.com/]. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks [https://myworstinvestmentever.com/ep645-larry-swedroe-beware-of-idiosyncratic-risks/]. Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 05: Great Companies Do Not Make High-Return Investments CHAPTER 05: GREAT COMPANIES DO NOT MAKE HIGH-RETURN INVESTMENTS In this chapter, Larry explains why investing in great companies doesn’t guarantee high returns. When faced with the choice of buying the stocks of “great” companies or buying the stocks of “lousy” companies, Larry says most investors would instinctively choose the former. This is an anomaly because people think the whole idea of investing is to identify a great company and, therefore, will get great returns. But if you understand finance, that doesn’t make any sense because the first basic rule of investing is that something you know is only information; it’s not value-added information unless the market doesn’t know it. This is because that information is already embedded in the price through the trading actions of all marketplace investors. SMALL COMPANIES VERSUS LARGE COMPANIES According to Larry, if it were true that markets provide returns commensurate with the amount of risk taken, one should expect great results if they invest in a passively managed portfolio consisting of small companies, which are intuitively riskier than large companies. Small companies don’t have the economies of scale that large companies have, making them generally less efficient. They typically have weaker balance sheets and fewer sources of capital. When there is distress in the capital markets, smaller companies are generally the first to be cut off from access to capital, increasing the risk of bankruptcy. They don’t have the depth of management that larger companies do. They generally don’t have long track records from which investors can make judgments. The cost of trading small stocks is much greater, increasing the risk of investing in them. When one compares the performance of the asset class of small companies with that of large companies, one gets the same results produced by the great companies versus value companies comparison. WHY GREAT EARNINGS DON’T NECESSARILY TRANSLATE INTO GREAT INVESTMENT RETURNS The simple explanation for why great earnings don’t necessarily translate into great investment returns is that investors discount the future expected earnings of value stocks at a higher rate than they discount the future expected earnings of growth stocks. This more than offsets the faster earnings growth rates of growth companies. The high discount rate results in low current valuations for value stocks and higher expected future returns relative to growth stocks. RISK VERSUS EXPECTED RETURN Larry talks of a simple principle that can help you avoid making poor investment decisions: Risk and expected return should be positively related. Value stocks have provided a premium over growth stocks for a logical reason: Value stocks are the stocks of riskier companies. That is why their stock prices are distressed. Investors refuse to buy them unless the prices are driven low enough so that they can expect to earn a rate of return that is high enough to compensate them for investing in risky companies. For similar reasons, small stocks have also provided a risk premium compared to large stocks. Larry reminds investors that if prices are high, they reflect low perceived risk, and thus, they should expect low future returns and vice versa. This does not make a highly-priced stock a poor investment. It simply makes it an investment perceived to have low risk and, thus, low future returns. Thinking otherwise would be like assuming government bonds are poor investments when the alternative is junk bonds. Larry advises investors not to engage in individual security selection. Instead, they should diversify and get the same risk-adjusted returns but with a much narrower dispersion of potential outcomes. Further, they should build a plan that incorporates the fact that when earnings yields are low, the investors expect low returns and adjust their asset allocation accordingly to make sure they have a good chance of achieving their investment goals when that’s the case. Larry also insists that if investors try to time the market, they should do it only at extremes and always remember that a higher PE doesn’t mean a higher expected return. The investor may be paying a high price for high expected growth and safety because the company is strong. DID YOU MISS OUT ON THE PREVIOUS CHAPTERS? CHECK THEM OUT: * Enrich Your Future 01: The Determinants of the Risk and Return of Stocks and Bonds [https://myworstinvestmentever.com/enrich-your-future-01-the-determinants-of-the-risk-and-return-of-stocks-and-bonds/] * Enrich Your Future 02: How Markets Set Prices [https://myworstinvestmentever.com/enrich-your-future-02-how-markets-set-prices/] * Enrich Your Future 03: Persistence of Performance: Athletes Versus Investment Managers [https://myworstinvestmentever.com/enrich-your-future-03-persistence-of-performance-athletes-versus-investment-managers/] * Enrich Your Future 04: Why Is Persistent Outperformance So Hard to Find? [https://myworstinvestmentever.com/enrich-your-future-04-why-is-persistent-outperformance-so-hard-to-find/] ABOUT LARRY SWEDROE Larry Swedroe [https://www.linkedin.com/in/larry-swedroe-18778267/] is head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners [https://buckinghamwealthpartners.com/]. Since joining the firm in 1996, Larry has spent his time, talent, and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing with an enthusiasm few can match. Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need [https://amzn.to/3HC9QnZ].” He has authored or co-authored 18 books. Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television on various outlets. Larry is a prolific writer, regularly contributing to multiple outlets, including AlphaArchitect [https://alphaarchitect.com/blog/], Advisor Perspectives [https://www.advisorperspectives.com/search?q=Larry+Swedroe], and Wealth Management [https://www.wealthmanagement.com/search/node/Larry%20Swedroe].   [spp-transcript]   CONNECT WITH LARRY SWEDROE * LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/larry-swedroe-18778267/] * Twitter [https://twitter.com/larryswedroe] * Website [https://buckinghamwealthpartners.com/] * Books [https://amzn.to/3JfpUgx] ANDREW’S BOOKS * How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market [https://amzn.to/3qrfHjX] * My Worst Investment Ever [https://amzn.to/2PDApAo] * 9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them [https://amzn.to/3v6ip1Y] * Transform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 Points [https://amzn.to/3emBO8M] ANDREW’S ONLINE PROGRAMS * Valuation Master Class [https://valuationmasterclass.com/] * The Become a Better Investor Community [https://astotz.kartra.com/page/become-a-better-investor-community] * How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/how-to-start-building-your-wealth-investing-in-the-stock-market] * Finance Made Ridiculously Simple [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/finance-made-ridiculously-simple] * FVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the World [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/fvmr-investing-quantamental-investing-across-the-world] * Become a Great Presenter and Increase Your Influence [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/gp] * Transform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 Points [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/transformyourbusiness] * Achieve Your Goals [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/achieve-your-goals] CONNECT WITH ANDREW STOTZ: * astotz.com [https://www.astotz.com/] * LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewstotz/] * Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/andrewstotzpage] * Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/andstotz/] * Threads [https://www.threads.net/@andstotz] * Twitter [https://twitter.com/Andrew_Stotz] * YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/c/andrewstotzpage] * My Worst Investment Ever Podcast [https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/my-worst-investment-ever-podcast/id1416554991?mt=2]
08. jul. 2024 - 27 min
episode Enrich Your Future 04: Why Is Persistent Outperformance So Hard to Find? artwork
Enrich Your Future 04: Why Is Persistent Outperformance So Hard to Find?
In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing [https://amzn.to/4ebG33x]. In this series, they discuss Chapter 04: Why Is Persistent Outperformance So Hard to Find? LEARNING:  Focus on building a robust asset allocation plan, regularly rebalancing it, and stick with it.   > “Investors should just build an asset allocation plan, rebalance, and stick with it. So, when there’s a bubble, take advantage of it and sell some stock high to buy those that haven’t performed.” > Larry Swedroe   In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing [https://amzn.to/4ebG33x]. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over the 30 years or so that he’s been trying to help investors. Larry is the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners [https://buckinghamwealthpartners.com/]. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks [https://myworstinvestmentever.com/ep645-larry-swedroe-beware-of-idiosyncratic-risks/]. Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 04: Why Is Persistent Outperformance So Hard to Find? CHAPTER 04: WHY IS PERSISTENT OUTPERFORMANCE SO HARD TO FIND? In this chapter, Larry explains why persistent outperformance beyond the randomly expected is so hard to find. According to Larry, the equivalent of the Holy Grail is finding the formula that allows many investors to time the market successfully. For others, it is finding the fund manager who can exploit market mispricings by buying undervalued stocks and perhaps shorting overvalued ones. However, markets are very highly efficient. An efficient market means that the price is the best estimate investors have of the right price. They don’t know the right price until after the fact. The efficiency of the markets and the evidence of the effects of scale on trading costs explain why persistent outperformance beyond the randomly expected is so hard to find. Thus, the search by investors for persistent outperformance is likely to prove as successful as Sir Galahad’s search for the Holy Grail. Larry adds that the only place we find the persistence of performance (beyond that which we would randomly expect) is at the very bottom—poorly performing funds tend to repeat. And the persistence of poor performance is not due to poor stock selection. Instead, it is due to high expenses. THE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS Larry says the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) [https://myworstinvestmentever.com/isms-40-larry-swedroe-market-vs-hedge-fund-managers-efficiency/] explains why all investors should expect a lack of persistence. It states that it is only by random good luck that a fund can persistently outperform after the expenses of its efforts. But there is also a practical reason for the lack of persistence: Successful active management sows the seeds of its own destruction. Just as the EMH explains why investors cannot use publicly available information to beat the market (because all investors have access to that information, and it is therefore already embedded in prices), the same is true of active managers. Investors should not expect to outperform the market by using publicly available information to select active managers. Any excess return will go to the active manager (in the form of higher expenses). Instead of fruitlessly chasing outperformance, Larry advocates for a more strategic approach. He advises investors to focus on building a robust asset allocation plan, regularly rebalancing it, and, most importantly, sticking with it. This approach helps investors take advantage of market bubbles and ensures they are well-positioned to buy stocks that haven’t performed well, thereby promoting a more balanced and sustainable investment strategy. FURTHER READING 1. Amit Goyal and Sunil Wahal, “The Selection and Termination of Investment Management Firms by Plan Sponsors [https://www.jstor.org/stable/25094490],” Journal of Finance (July 2008). 2. Jonathan B. Berk, “Five Myths of Active Portfolio Managemen [https://www.pm-research.com/content/iijpormgmt/31/3/27]t.” 3. Roger Edelen, Richard Evans, and Gregory B. Kadlec, “Scale Effects in Mutual Fund performance: The Role of Trading Costs [https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=951367],” March 17, 2007. DID YOU MISS OUT ON THE PREVIOUS CHAPTERS? CHECK THEM OUT: * Enrich Your Future 01: The Determinants of the Risk and Return of Stocks and Bonds [https://myworstinvestmentever.com/enrich-your-future-01-the-determinants-of-the-risk-and-return-of-stocks-and-bonds/] * Enrich Your Future 02: How Markets Set Prices [https://myworstinvestmentever.com/enrich-your-future-02-how-markets-set-prices/] * Enrich Your Future 03: Persistence of Performance: Athletes Versus Investment Managers [https://myworstinvestmentever.com/enrich-your-future-03-persistence-of-performance-athletes-versus-investment-managers/] ABOUT LARRY SWEDROE Larry Swedroe [https://www.linkedin.com/in/larry-swedroe-18778267/] is head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners [https://buckinghamwealthpartners.com/]. Since joining the firm in 1996, Larry has spent his time, talent, and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing with an enthusiasm few can match. Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need [https://amzn.to/3HC9QnZ].” He has authored or co-authored 18 books. Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television on various outlets. Larry is a prolific writer, regularly contributing to multiple outlets, including AlphaArchitect [https://alphaarchitect.com/blog/], Advisor Perspectives [https://www.advisorperspectives.com/search?q=Larry+Swedroe], and Wealth Management [https://www.wealthmanagement.com/search/node/Larry%20Swedroe].   [spp-transcript]   CONNECT WITH LARRY SWEDROE * LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/larry-swedroe-18778267/] * Twitter [https://twitter.com/larryswedroe] * Website [https://buckinghamwealthpartners.com/] * Books [https://amzn.to/3JfpUgx] ANDREW’S BOOKS * How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market [https://amzn.to/3qrfHjX] * My Worst Investment Ever [https://amzn.to/2PDApAo] * 9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them [https://amzn.to/3v6ip1Y] * Transform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 Points [https://amzn.to/3emBO8M] ANDREW’S ONLINE PROGRAMS * Valuation Master Class [https://valuationmasterclass.com/] * The Become a Better Investor Community [https://astotz.kartra.com/page/become-a-better-investor-community] * How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/how-to-start-building-your-wealth-investing-in-the-stock-market] * Finance Made Ridiculously Simple [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/finance-made-ridiculously-simple] * FVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the World [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/fvmr-investing-quantamental-investing-across-the-world] * Become a Great Presenter and Increase Your Influence [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/gp] * Transform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 Points [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/transformyourbusiness] * Achieve Your Goals [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/achieve-your-goals] CONNECT WITH ANDREW STOTZ: * astotz.com [https://www.astotz.com/] * LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewstotz/] * Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/andrewstotzpage] * Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/andstotz/] * Threads [https://www.threads.net/@andstotz] * Twitter [https://twitter.com/Andrew_Stotz] * YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/c/andrewstotzpage] * My Worst Investment Ever Podcast [https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/my-worst-investment-ever-podcast/id1416554991?mt=2]
01. jul. 2024 - 22 min
episode Enrich Your Future 03: Persistence of Performance: Athletes Versus Investment Managers artwork
Enrich Your Future 03: Persistence of Performance: Athletes Versus Investment Managers
In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing [https://amzn.to/4ebG33x]. In this series, they discuss Chapter 03: Persistence of Performance: Athletes Versus Investment Managers. LEARNING:  The nature of the competition in the investment arena is so different that conventional wisdom does not apply. What works in one paradigm does not necessarily work in another.   > “Active managers fail with great persistence not because they’re dumb, it’s just that they have a burden of costs, which makes it very difficult for them to outperform and overcome those costs.” > Larry Swedroe   In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing [https://amzn.to/4ebG33x]. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over the 30 years or so that he’s been trying to help investors. Larry is the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners [https://buckinghamwealthpartners.com/]. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks [https://myworstinvestmentever.com/ep645-larry-swedroe-beware-of-idiosyncratic-risks/]. Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 03: Persistence of Performance: Athletes Versus Investment Managers. CHAPTER 03: PERSISTENCE OF PERFORMANCE: ATHLETES VERSUS INVESTMENT MANAGERS In this chapter, Larry expounds on why we do not see the persistence of the outperformance of investment managers. He also tries to help investors understand how securities markets set prices. SKILLS VERSUS LUCK One of the most strongly held beliefs is that successful people succeed not through luck but through the skill of persistence over time. So, people assume that successful active managers must also result from this skill, not just luck. Larry explains that while this may be true for athletes where competition is one-on-one, it is not the case when it comes to investing. According to Dr. Mark Rubinstein, competition for an investment manager is not other individual investment managers but rather the market’s collective wisdom [https://www.jstor.org/stable/4480313]. Further, Rex Sinquefield states that just because there are some investors smarter than others, that advantage will not show up. The market is too vast and too informationally efficient. [https://www.fa-mag.com/news/article-309.html] Many people fail to comprehend that in many forms of competition, such as chess, poker, or investing, the relative skill level plays the more critical role in determining outcomes, not the absolute level. The “paradox of skill” means that even as skill level rises, luck can become more crucial in determining outcomes if the level of competition also increases. THE COST OF OUTPERFORMANCE When it comes to outperforming the market, Larry cautions that investment managers are not engaged in a zero-sum game. In pursuing market-beating returns, they face significantly higher expenses than passive investors. These costs, which include research expenses, other fund operating expenses, bid-offer spreads, commissions, market impact costs, and taxes, can pose significant financial risks. Investors must be aware of these potential pitfalls and factor them into their investment strategies. According to Larry, small-cap stocks tend to outperform large stocks in the long term. This performance isn’t a size effect but a merger effect. Active managers fail with remarkable persistence in emerging markets because there are costs to exploit market inefficiencies, and the more inefficient the market is, the more the implementation costs. WHY CONVENTIONAL WISDOM DOESN’T APPLY IN INVESTING In conclusion, Larry states that conventional wisdom states that past performance is a good predictor of future performance. It is conventional wisdom because it holds true in most endeavors, be it a sporting event or any other form of competition. The problem for investors who believe in conventional wisdom is that the nature of the competition in the investment arena is so different that conventional wisdom does not apply. What works in one paradigm does not necessarily work in another. Peter Bernstein [https://amzn.to/3VcZfp3] said, “In the real world, investors seem to have great difficulty outperforming one another in any convincing or consistent fashion. Today’s hero is often tomorrow’s blockhead.” FURTHER READING 1. Dr. Mark Rubinstein, “Rational Markets: Yes or No? The Affirmative Case [https://www.jstor.org/stable/4480313],” Financial Analysts Journal (May-June 2001). 2. Ron Ross, The Unbeatable Market [https://amzn.to/3xbKqes] (Optimum Press, 2002). 3. Raymond Fazzi, “Going Their Own Way,” Financial Advisor (March 2001). [https://www.fa-mag.com/news/article-309.html] 4. Tim Riley, “Can Mutual Fund Stars Still Pick Stocks?: A Replication and Extension of Kosowski, Timmermann, Wermers, and White (2006) [https://www.nowpublishers.com/article/Details/CFR-0102].” January 2019. 5. Robert Kosowski, Allan Timmermann, Russ Wermers and Hal White, “Can Mutual Fund ‘Stars’ Really Pick Stocks? New Evidence from a Bootstrap Analysis [https://rady.ucsd.edu/_files/faculty-research/timmermann/bootstrap.pdf], Journal of Finance (December 2006) 6. Ralph Wanger, A Zebra in Lion Country [https://amzn.to/3KCC1DQ] (Simon & Schuster, 1997). 7. Peter Bernstein, Against the Gods [https://amzn.to/3VcZfp3] (Wiley, 1996). DID YOU MISS OUT ON THE PREVIOUS CHAPTERS? CHECK THEM OUT: * Enrich Your Future 01: The Determinants of the Risk and Return of Stocks and Bonds [https://myworstinvestmentever.com/enrich-your-future-01-the-determinants-of-the-risk-and-return-of-stocks-and-bonds/] * Enrich Your Future 02: How Markets Set Prices [https://myworstinvestmentever.com/enrich-your-future-02-how-markets-set-prices/] ABOUT LARRY SWEDROE Larry Swedroe [https://www.linkedin.com/in/larry-swedroe-18778267/] is head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners [https://buckinghamwealthpartners.com/]. Since joining the firm in 1996, Larry has spent his time, talent, and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing with an enthusiasm few can match. Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need [https://amzn.to/3HC9QnZ].” He has authored or co-authored 18 books. Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television on various outlets. Larry is a prolific writer, regularly contributing to multiple outlets, including AlphaArchitect [https://alphaarchitect.com/blog/], Advisor Perspectives [https://www.advisorperspectives.com/search?q=Larry+Swedroe], and Wealth Management [https://www.wealthmanagement.com/search/node/Larry%20Swedroe].   [spp-transcript]   CONNECT WITH LARRY SWEDROE * LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/larry-swedroe-18778267/] * Twitter [https://twitter.com/larryswedroe] * Website [https://buckinghamwealthpartners.com/] * Books [https://amzn.to/3JfpUgx] ANDREW’S BOOKS * How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market [https://amzn.to/3qrfHjX] * My Worst Investment Ever [https://amzn.to/2PDApAo] * 9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them [https://amzn.to/3v6ip1Y] * Transform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 Points [https://amzn.to/3emBO8M] ANDREW’S ONLINE PROGRAMS * Valuation Master Class [https://valuationmasterclass.com/] * The Become a Better Investor Community [https://astotz.kartra.com/page/become-a-better-investor-community] * How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/how-to-start-building-your-wealth-investing-in-the-stock-market] * Finance Made Ridiculously Simple [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/finance-made-ridiculously-simple] * FVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the World [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/fvmr-investing-quantamental-investing-across-the-world] * Become a Great Presenter and Increase Your Influence [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/gp] * Transform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 Points [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/transformyourbusiness] * Achieve Your Goals [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/achieve-your-goals] CONNECT WITH ANDREW STOTZ: * astotz.com [https://www.astotz.com/] * LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewstotz/] * Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/andrewstotzpage] * Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/andstotz/] * Twitter [https://twitter.com/Andrew_Stotz] * YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/c/andrewstotzpage] * My Worst Investment Ever Podcast [https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/my-worst-investment-ever-podcast/id1416554991?mt=2]
24. jun. 2024 - 29 min
episode Enrich Your Future 02: How Markets Set Prices artwork
Enrich Your Future 02: How Markets Set Prices
In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing [https://amzn.to/4ebG33x]. In this series, they discuss Chapter 02: How Markets Set Prices. LEARNING: Invest in passively managed funds and adopt a simple buy, hold, and rebalance strategy. While gamblers make bets, investors let the markets work for them, not against them.   > “The only way to beat an efficient market is to either know something the market doesn’t—such as the fact that a team’s best player is injured and will not be able to play—or to be able to interpret information about the teams better than the market (other gamblers collectively) does.” > Larry Swedroe   In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing [https://amzn.to/4ebG33x]. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over the 30 years or so that he’s been trying to help investors. Larry is the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners [https://buckinghamwealthpartners.com/]. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks [https://myworstinvestmentever.com/ep645-larry-swedroe-beware-of-idiosyncratic-risks/]. Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 02: How Markets Set Prices. CHAPTER 02: HOW MARKETS SET PRICES In this chapter, Larry explains how markets set prices—probably the most important thing investors need to learn before they invest a penny. Without this knowledge, investors won’t know whether the stock they buy is undervalued or overvalued. Larry insists that investors should have a good understanding of how the market gets to a specific price. POINT SPREAD BETTING To explain the complicated concept of how markets set prices, Larry uses an analogy related to college basketball backed up by academic research. Duke is a perennial contender for the national championship. Every year, it’s ranked in the top 25. At the start of every season, most college teams that are good try to schedule a few of what are called “cupcake” games to give their players a chance to get in the routine, learn the plays, get to know each other, etc., before they meet tougher competition. Duke often scheduled a game against Army. Army traveled down every year to Duke, where they would get a big payday, and Duke would have an easy win. No one in their right mind would bet on Army to win that game because they have played probably 30-40 times already, and Duke has won every game. And they could play another 30 or 40 times and win every game. However, people decide to entice others to bet on Army. To make it an equal bet, they create a point spread. The bookies set the initial point spread where they think they can get an equal amount of money bet on both sides. The bookies do their analysis and set the initial spread, but they don’t set the actual spread, which is determined by the betters in their actions. So if a lot of money starts coming in betting on Duke, the bookies will raise the spread until money starts coming in on Army until they get an equal amount of money. Then, the winner has to put up $110 to win $100. If they win, you get their $110 back and the bookies’s $100. But if you lose, you lose $110, not $100. So the bookies collect that $10 on the total of $200. So, what happens is that the point spread is moving based on the collective wisdom of the markets. It’s very easy to determine whether Duke is going to win or not. But it’s tough to beat that point spread. Very rarely does the point spread predict the actual outcome. However, it is an unbiased estimator of the outcome. An “unbiased estimator” is a statistic that is, on average, neither too high nor too low. Evidence from a study covering six NBA seasons [https://jogoremoto.pt/docs/extra/8qbunr.pdf] shows that the average error was less than one-quarter of one point. So, there’s no way to exploit that information. In terms of investing, Larry gives an example of when you want to buy a stock (making a bet on the company), you have to buy it from someone. A stockbroker will not sell that stock to you because he might lose money. Instead, they find someone who wants to sell the stock and match the buyer with the seller. He is taking bets, not making bets. In the process, he earns the vigorish (a commission). Like stockbrokers, bookies want to take bets, not make them. Thus, they set the initial point spread at the “price” they believe will balance the forces of supply and demand (the point at which an equal amount of money will be bet on Duke and Army). HOW TO BEAT AN EFFICIENT MARKET A market in which it is difficult to persistently exploit mispricing after the expenses of the effort is called an “efficient” market. According to Larry, the only way to beat an efficient market is to either know something the market doesn’t—such as the fact that a team’s best player is injured and will not be able to play—or to be able to interpret information about the teams better than the market (other gamblers collectively) does. The existence of an efficient public market in which the knowledge of all bettors (investors) is used to set prices protects the less informed bettors (investors) from being exploited. On the other hand, the existence of an efficient market prevents the sophisticated and more knowledgeable bettors (investors) from exploiting their less knowledgeable counterparts. Since about 90 percent of all trading is done by large institutional traders, these sophisticated investors are setting prices, not amateur individual investors. The competition is undoubtedly tougher, with professionals (instead of amateurs) dominating the market. Every time an individual buys a stock, he should consider that he is competing with these giant institutional investors. The individual investor should also acknowledge that institutions have more resources, and thus, they will likely succeed. However, study after study demonstrates that the majority of individual and institutional investors who attempt to beat the market by either picking stocks or timing the market fail miserably, and they do so with great persistence. A study [https://www.jstor.org/stable/222522] by University of California professors Brad Barber and Terrance Odean found that the stocks individual investors buy underperform the market after they buy them, and the stocks they sell outperform after they sell them. They also found that male investors underperform the market by about 3% per annum, and women (because they trade less and thus incur less costs) trail the market by about 2% per annum [https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/116/1/261/1939000?redirectedFrom=fulltext]. In addition, they found that those investors who traded the most trailed the market on a risk-adjusted basis by over 10 percent per annum. And to prove that more heads are not better than one, they found that investment clubs trailed the market by almost 4% per annum [https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=219188]. BETTING AGAINST AN EFFICIENT MARKET Betting against an efficient market is a loser’s game. It doesn’t matter whether the “game” is betting on a sporting event or trying to identify which stocks will outperform the market. While it is possible to win by betting on sporting events, because the markets are highly efficient, the only likely winners are the bookies. In addition, the more you play the game, the more likely you will lose, and the bookies will win. The same is true of investing. And the reason is that the securities markets are also highly efficient. If you try to time the market, pick stocks, or hire managers to engage in that activity for you, you are playing a loser’s game. Just as you can win by betting on sporting events, you can win (outperform) by picking stocks, timing the market, or using active managers to play the game on your behalf. However, the odds are poor. And just as with gambling, the more and the longer you play the game, the more likely you will lose (as the costs of playing compound). This makes accepting market returns (passive investing) the winner’s game. Larry advises investors to invest in passively managed funds and adopt a simple buy, hold, and rebalance strategy. This way, you are guaranteed to earn market rates of returns at a low cost and relatively tax-efficient manner. You are also virtually guaranteed to outperform the majority of professional and individual investors. Thus, it is the strategy most likely to achieve the best results. The bottom line is that while gamblers make bets (speculate on individual stocks and actively managed funds), investors let the markets work for them, not against them. FURTHER READING 1. William J. Bernstein, The Four Pillars of Investing [https://amzn.to/4bMZT3w] (McGraw-Hill, 2002). 2. Raymond D. Sauer, “The Economics of Wagering Markets [https://jogoremoto.pt/docs/extra/8qbunr.pdf],” Journal of Economic Literature, 36. 3. Daniel C. Hickman, “Efficiency in the Madness? Examining the Betting Market for the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament [https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12197-020-09507-7],” Journal of Economics and Finance (July 2020). 4. Guy Elaad, James Reade, and Carl Singleton, “Information, Prices and Efficiency in an Online Betting Market [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1544612319306440?via%3Dihub],” Finance Research Letters (July 2020). 5. James Suroweicki, “The Wisdom of Crowds [https://amzn.to/3VAUN4W],” (Doubleday 2004). 6. Brad Barber and Terrance Odean, “Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence and Common Stock Investment [https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/116/1/261/1939000?redirectedFrom=fulltext],” Quarterly Journal of Economics (February 2001). 7. Brad Barber and Terrance Odean, “Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth [https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers%20current%20versions/individual_investor_performance_final.pdf].” 8. Brad Barber and Terrance Odean, “Too Many Cooks Spoil the Profits: Investment Club Performance [https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=219188],” Financial Analysts Journal (January/February 2000). 9. Andrew Tobias, The Only Investment Book You Will Ever Need [https://amzn.to/4bb7g3T] (Harcourt, 1978). 10. Fama, Eugene F., and Kenneth R. French. 2010. “Luck versus Skill in the Cross-Section of Mutual Fund Returns [https://afajof.org/journal-of-finance/].” Journal of Finance, vol. 65, no. 5 (October):1915. 11. Meyer-Brauns, Philipp, “Mutual Fund Performance through a Five-Factor Lens.” Dimensional Fund Advisors white paper. 2016. 12. Andrew Berkin and Larry E. Swedroe, “The Incredible Shrinking Alpha [https://amzn.to/3Vedfih],” Harriman House (2020). 13. William Berlind, “Bookies in Exile [https://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/17/magazine/bookies-in-exile.html#:~:text=The%20whole%20episode%20shocked%20the,up%20and%20left%20the%20business.],” New York Times, August 17, 2003. DID YOU MISS OUT ON THE PREVIOUS CHAPTER? CHECK THEM OUT: * Enrich Your Future 01: The Determinants of the Risk and Return of Stocks and Bonds [https://myworstinvestmentever.com/enrich-your-future-01-the-determinants-of-the-risk-and-return-of-stocks-and-bonds/] ABOUT LARRY SWEDROE Larry Swedroe [https://www.linkedin.com/in/larry-swedroe-18778267/] is head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners [https://buckinghamwealthpartners.com/]. Since joining the firm in 1996, Larry has spent his time, talent, and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing with an enthusiasm few can match. Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need [https://amzn.to/3HC9QnZ].” He has authored or co-authored 18 books. Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television on various outlets. Larry is a prolific writer, regularly contributing to multiple outlets, including AlphaArchitect [https://alphaarchitect.com/blog/], Advisor Perspectives [https://www.advisorperspectives.com/search?q=Larry+Swedroe], and Wealth Management [https://www.wealthmanagement.com/search/node/Larry%20Swedroe].   [spp-transcript]   CONNECT WITH LARRY SWEDROE * LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/larry-swedroe-18778267/] * Twitter [https://twitter.com/larryswedroe] * Website [https://buckinghamwealthpartners.com/] * Books [https://amzn.to/3JfpUgx] ANDREW’S BOOKS * How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market [https://amzn.to/3qrfHjX] * My Worst Investment Ever [https://amzn.to/2PDApAo] * 9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them [https://amzn.to/3v6ip1Y] * Transform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 Points [https://amzn.to/3emBO8M] ANDREW’S ONLINE PROGRAMS * Valuation Master Class [https://valuationmasterclass.com/] * The Become a Better Investor Community [https://astotz.kartra.com/page/become-a-better-investor-community] * How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/how-to-start-building-your-wealth-investing-in-the-stock-market] * Finance Made Ridiculously Simple [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/finance-made-ridiculously-simple] * FVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the World [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/fvmr-investing-quantamental-investing-across-the-world] * Become a Great Presenter and Increase Your Influence [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/gp] * Transform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 Points [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/transformyourbusiness] * Achieve Your Goals [https://academy.astotz.com/courses/achieve-your-goals] CONNECT WITH ANDREW STOTZ: * astotz.com [https://www.astotz.com/] * LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewstotz/] * Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/andrewstotzpage] * Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/andstotz/] * Twitter [https://twitter.com/Andrew_Stotz] * YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/c/andrewstotzpage] * My Worst Investment Ever Podcast [https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/my-worst-investment-ever-podcast/id1416554991?mt=2]
17. jun. 2024 - 36 min
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