Notayesmanspodcast389

Notayesmanspodcast390

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- I’ve seen a couple of commentators talking about ‘zombie companies’ in Japan, which will fold if interest rates rise. It’d be interesting to explore this, and whether it will affect the USA, Europe and the UK — all of which have already seen bankruptcies rising, ahead of Japan’s own reckoning. Secondly, it looks like the USA is worried enough to help support the yen. What do you think? With the Lloyds house price monitor this morning showing 0.1% YoY and 0.0% MoM increases, does this not prove even more problematic for Labours 1.5 million new homes target, as cost of construction costs increase, not just with inflation but increasing regulations around Net Zero etc? "What is the potential impact of US market interventions to 1) keep the oil price below $90 2) bolster the yen?"

Notayesmanspodcast389

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- You emphasise bond rates when the go above 5%. I take that this is important. But when will the crisis come to fruition? Is it predictable? And will other countries' rates also rising have any effect on the severity of the crisis if/when it comes? The statements from members of the Bank of England MPC all appeared unfazed by broad money. Are they correct? Why are they complacent with 3.2% inflation in 2027 (at least the six voting in favour of a hold on base rates)?

Notayesmanspodcast388

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- What's your view of the dilemma of adherence to the self-imposed fiscal rules against the need to fund defence/infrastructure commitments. Shaun, I'd be interested in your view of the 10-year gilt yield, nudging 5.1%. How much of this rise is down to the Middle East situation and oil price, and how much of it to Spendy Andy? I guessed 5% was when it starts to break so we shouldn’t have to wait long. I wonder if we’ll have to have an emergency budget? The lack of volatility and tight ranges, could be a "hint" that the BOJ has finally realised that their interventions so far have only donated money to a few players - and now they could be on the offer - ready to destroy USDJPY when others start the move down - first time clever intervention ?

Notayesmanspodcast387

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- I see the heat and war in Ukraine is pushing up agricultural commodity prices like wheat. How long is the pass through time from commodity price rises to shop price increases? Also some questions around the latest Bank of England QE and QT plans. ‘dreadful error’ - so you’d have not done QE at all? Counter-factual of the Gilt market totally seizing up is infinitely worse than where we are now Ive never got why Reeves was never challenged about this in Treasury questions And why they issued so many index linked bonds when inflation was zero!

Notayesmnaspodcast386

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- What’s the chances of the UK running into Argentina/Turkey levels of inflation and interest rates? How genuine do you believe the economic data coming out of China to be? 1) Do you agree with me that a good move by Burnham would be to go back in history books and recreate a new Manchester Stock Exchange to boost local / Northern investments & start-ups and replicate this in the Midlands Both would be under FCA. Is the only solution in the short term to put everyone on an agile price tracker to enforce demand reduction at low supply times!?