Bitcoin's Outperformance and the Case for a Bottom

Nothing Burger

NYDIG's Greg Cipolaro and Pete Janney unpack Strategy's recent signal that it may sell some of its bitcoin holdings, the first time the company has ever indicated anything other than buying. Greg and Pete walk through why Strategy, which holds nearly 820,000 bitcoin or about 4% of all bitcoin that will ever exist, is choosing to inoculate the market before any actual sales, and how growing dividend obligations on instruments like STRC factor into the move. The conversation then broadens to what Greg calls the trifurcation of digital asset treasury companies: those issuing bitcoin-backed digital credit, those using bitcoin balances to acquire operating businesses, and those running active treasury management strategies. Greg and Pete lay out how the relevant valuation metrics, mNAV, EBITDA, and bitcoin per share, shift depending on which lane a company occupies, and why Strategy is still expected to be a net buyer.

Bitcoin 2026 Takeaways

NYDIG's Greg Cipolaro and Pete Janney are back from Bitcoin 2026 in Las Vegas with takeaways from a week of high-quality meetings, panels, and institutional conversations. Across lending markets, capital structures, payments, and infrastructure, the throughline was clear: institutional building around bitcoin has continued at full pace, with serious capital and serious operators showing up to do the work. Greg and Pete walk through the themes that dominated the week, including the rapid expansion of bitcoin-backed lending on both the institutional and consumer sides, growing momentum behind DAT capital structures like Strategy's STRC and Strive's SATA, and the narrowing spread between DeFi and CeFi borrowing rates in the wake of the Aave fallout. They also dig into Block's expanding payments footprint, with 800,000 merchants now accepting bitcoin, the quantum question that infused nearly every conversation, and the tension between OG bitcoiners and the institutional ownership now reshaping the asset.

When DeFi Isn't Decentralized: Lessons from the Aave Bank Run

NYDIG's Pete Janney and Greg Cipolaro break down a North Korean exploit that drained nearly $300 million from a DeFi project, triggering knock-on effects across the crypto lending ecosystem. The pair size up the digital asset-backed lending market, roughly $70 billion in outstanding loans, with about half originated through DeFi platforms, and walk through how a single exploit on Kelp cascaded into Aave, drained TVL from ~$28 billion to ~$13 billion, and pushed dollar borrowing rates from around 4% to 13-15%. They examine the mechanics of the digital bank run, why borrowers and depositors are now locked in, and the governance and economic risks that institutional participants often abstract away. Greg argues the term "DeFi" is a misnomer, with "open finance" being a more accurate description given how centralized the decision-making actually is. The conversation closes with what this means for Wall Street's tokenization and stablecoin roadmaps, and why a high-touch, traditional approach to digital asset lending matters more than ever.

Bitcoin's Outperformance and the Case for a Bottom

In this episode, NYDIG's Pete Janney and Greg Cipolaro unpack bitcoin's strong performance since the onset of the Iran conflict. The pair examine drivers of that outperformance and where the incremental buyer is coming from, with a close look at Strategy's STRC perpetual preferred equity instrument. They also cover Goldman Sachs entering the covered call ETF space, the state of implied and realized volatility, and what the current options environment means for yield-seeking clients. Greg adds context from on-chain metrics suggesting the current drawdown is tracking better than prior cycles and a bottoming process may be underway.

State of bitcoin (Q1 2026)

NYDIG's Pete Janney, Greg Cipolaro, Logan Scott, and Ben Lawsky reconvene for their quarterly update and outlook, recapping a turbulent Q1 2026 that saw bitcoin fall 22.5% amid a cascade of headwinds, from the failed Clarity Act markup and quantum computing fears to AI disruption, the Iran conflict, and rising stagflation concerns. The team unpacks how bitcoin has surprisingly outperformed since the onset of geopolitical tensions, behaving as a store of value while precious metals stumbled, and why correlations with U.S. equities near all-time highs tell a more nuanced story. They assess the current state of institutional adoption, including major banks launching custody and ETF products, new capital formation structures like Strategy's STRC and Strive's preferred equity, and the convergence of traditional finance and crypto firms. The conversation turns to the Q2 outlook, where the fate of the Clarity Act looms large. May is shaping up as the make-or-break window before midterm politics close the legislative path, and the team weighs what that means for the market, regulatory clarity, and the next wave of institutional capital.