The Fed's In A Finger Trap: Cut Rates or Fight Inflation?

How the Dot Plot Has Secretly Been Affecting Your Portfolio (And Why It Might Be Going Away)

The Fed may soon scrap a tool called the dot plot...and most people have never even heard of it. But it has quietly shaped every mortgage rate, bond yield, and retirement projection in the last 14 years. Rumors indicate the new Fed Chair wants it gone by the June Fed meeting, and if it disappears, the financial roadmap Wall Street has relied on for over a decade goes with it. Let's find out how the dot plot may have been the phantom menace all along, On The Markets.    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principal Daren Blonski CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:  • How the “dot plot” has impacted mortgages, bonds and 401ks since 2012 and the impact of it’s potential disappearance.  • The all-time high breakout in the S&P cooled today.  Why Daren sees a potential “double top” forming, but “not all hope is lost”.  • A key bitcoin owner sold off this week.  Why bitcoin is sitting at critical support and where Daren sees it going.    0:00 What is The Dot Plot?  14:13 Ai selloff today  27:00 Nvidia triple top?  28:00 Oil in a descending wedge  29:00 Bitcoin selling off  34:50 Gold looking precarious  37:48 10 year treasury shot up and stayed elevated       Full YouTube video here [https://youtube.com/live/jZOTczSM0Is?feature=share]   Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis  [https://here//sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis]   _______________________________________  Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.   The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed.  Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information.  A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.   Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.   Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Stock Market vs Economy: The Disconnect Explained

In the month of May 2026, The Dow hit a record high on the exact same day consumer sentiment hit an all-time low — and that disconnect is telling us something important. Wall Street is celebrating eight straight winning weeks while everyday Americans post their third straight monthly decline in confidence, creating the widest gap between markets and reality we've seen in years. Does sentiment finally catch up with the market and bring it back to earth?  Or like a SpaceX rocket are we about to blast even higher? Let's find out On The Markets.    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Chris Sipes CFP®, Daren Blonski CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:  • Consumer sentiment just hit an all-time low.  Historically, what have the next 12-months of S&P returns looked like in those scenarios?  • What 4 categories of loan delinquencies say about the average American family, only one isn’t near all-time highs.  • The Top 20% of America meanwhile are on an unprecedented run of growth since 2019, we’ve got the data to prove it.  • S&P 500 another all-time high. The key resistance line that has Daren thinking we're headed for "blue sky" territory.    Episode video available here: https://youtube.com/live/mnrwP9gSj74   Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis    _______________________________________  Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.   The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed.  Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information.  A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.   Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.   Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

SpaceX IPO: The $2 Trillion Sign Of The Times

SpaceX just filed the largest IPO in history with a $1.7 trillion price tag, but the S-1 reveals a much murkier story. Starlink is the only division turning a profit — the rocket business loses money, the AI business loses even more, and Elon Musk controls 85% of the voting power. Is this a high water mark for the fundamentals-less Mag 7 era? Or the bellweather for a new world with no math?  It’s a sign of the times...let's find out on the markets.    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Chris Sipes CFP®, Daren Blonski CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:  • SpaceX is going public, and not just for institutional investors.  Is this your chance to get in on the ground floor of the next Pacific Railroad?  Or a launchpad explosion waiting to happen?  • What does this moment signify about a greater bubble potential in the market?  How does that compare with 5 other US market bubbles over the past 200 years?  • Is $6 a gallon cramping your road trip plans?  Wait until you see how much of that came from our own oil reserves.    0:00 Opening discussion of the SpaceX IPO  10:30 NBA Playoffs are same as investing?  21:00 Bubbles throughout the years  28:00 Drawdowns in recovery periods  29:40 Europe’s growth mirrors USA minus the Mag 7  30:40 Retail sales haven’t grown in 5 years  31:17 Americans own more stocks than ever  34:21 Real yield on treasury inflation protected securities  36:30 Historic strategic oil reserve drawdown this year  50:48 Bitcoin down  51:40 Oil markets trending down  53:30 Gold soft since January  Full video of episode here: https://youtube.com/live/L9XMyiWS07Y    Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis  [https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis]   _______________________________________  Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.   The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed.  Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information.  A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.   Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.   Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

The Fed's In A Finger Trap: Cut Rates or Fight Inflation?

CPI inflation hit 3.8%, the highest since 2023. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was installed to deliver a fed rate cut in 2026, but the numbers say he can't. While the S&P 500 hits record highs on surging AI stocks, the rest of the market is lagging and the fed rate decision has become a central bank finger trap. Can Warsh pull free?  Or is stagflation the new reality? Let's find out On The Markets.    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Chris Sipes CFP®, Daren Blonski CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:  • Look at rate hikes and cuts over the year.  What does the rest of 2026 hold in store? What could either decision do to the market?  • Inflation wipes out wage growth completely for the first time in 3 years.  • Chris has a chart dating back to the Civil War that shows that market has only been this expensive one other time in history.    0:00 What is the Fed Finger Trap?  8:00 Rate hikes and cuts price in for 2026  9:49 Investor sentiment  12:06 Inflation wipes out wage gains for first time in 3 years  16:30 Producer price index rising  20:20 2 year treasury rate rising  22:35 Stock market is 2nd most expensive ever  25:58 What railroads tell us about AI  28:20 Small cap vs. large cap over the decades  30:18 Homeowner equity at highest levels since 1960  35:00 Some good news  38:56 S&P heat map  45:03 10 year rate soars, inflation is alive and well  47:20 Oil   48:37 Ugly close on bonds     Video of this episode here: https://youtube.com/live/Khj_z6-QduU      Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis    _______________________________________  Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.   The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed.  Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information.  A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.   Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.   Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Did Tariffs Fix The Trade Deficit?

We're just over a year past the proclamation that tariffs would fix all of America’s economic woes.  Did it really work?  Did the market care one way or the other?  Let’s find out On The Market.    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Chris Sipes CFP®, Daren Blonski CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:  • A year of US trade deficit data.  Did tariffs really work?  • What have a year of tariffs done to the cost of producing products in America? Drastic decrease or increase?  • Could small cap funds finally be outperforming their outsized counterparts?  • The story of the Japanese toiler maker who’s price surged this week when the world discovered they manufacture AI components (yes, this is a true story).  • Market closed at an all time high, so maybe tariffs did indirectly do their job?  The market is the economy?  Is not the economy? Let’s find out.    3:30 China’s share of rare earth minerals  8:10 Investor sentiment  9:45 Markets since implementation of tariffs  11:50 Inflation since tariff implementation  13:34 Did the trade deficit reduce?  15:06 Is manufacturing expanding?  15:50 Consumer sentiment is down  22:50 Rental inflation  24:00 Consumption and AI are powering domestic demand  25:34 Small-cap growth funds vs. large growth average  30:20 S&P 500 another all time high  32:58 Gold descending?  33:50 10 year treasury trading sideways  34:50 Bitcoin still trading under 200 day moving average  35:00 Equally weighted index did not make an all-time high     Video available here: https://youtube.com/live/2H6Niq8ZHOA    Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis    _______________________________________  Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.   The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed.  Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information.  A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.   Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.   Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.