How to Win a Trade War: Keynes & Bown on Trump & China [Top Expert Interview]

How to Win a Trade War: Keynes & Bown on Trump & China [Top Expert Interview]

Send us Fan Mail [https://www.buzzsprout.com/2422711/fan_mail/new] In this exclusive episode of Global Trade Deciphered, Justin Hayden Miller is joined by Chad Bown, former Chief Economist at the U.S. State Department under Biden-Harris and Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Soumaya Keynes, leading FT columnist and former Economics Editor at The Economist, and  They dissect the real mechanics of trade wars in 2026: President Trump’s tariffs on almost everyone, the deeper China challenge the world actually needs to fight, the breakdown of the WTO rules-based system, and why China’s non-market subsidies and state-owned enterprises have shattered traditional dispute settlement. The conversation examines trade strategy through the lens of real wars — defence, logistics, vulnerabilities, stockpiling — and the attack phase of tariffs and controls. They explore companies as reluctant or obedient “soldiers” in these conflicts, Europe’s simultaneous battles with Chinese EV and solar floods alongside U.S. tariff pressure, and the evidence on whether tariffs actually deliver the terms-of-trade gains economic theory once promised. Soumaya Keynes — great-great-niece of John Maynard Keynes — reflects on how geopolitics is forcing economics to evolve, citing new research by Christopher Clayton and Jesse Schrager on supply-chain concentration and weaponised dependencies. Chad Bown draws on Situation Room experience to test what a smarter, China-focused strategy might look like.  Essential listening for business leaders, policymakers and supply-chain strategists who need to understand the new rules of global trade before the next tariff headline lands. Published by Simon & Schuster, How to Win a Trade War is out today. If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow. *Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM   or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com [privilegeddiscussions@gmail.com]   Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered [https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered] *Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

EU Killed De Minimus: The Death of Cheap Parcels from July 2026

Send us Fan Mail [https://www.buzzsprout.com/2422711/fan_mail/new] From 1 July 2026 the EU is scrapping its €150 customs de minimis threshold. Cheap parcels just died. Every low-value package from outside Europe now faces a new flat-rate €3 customs duty per product type — plus France’s extra €2 “"taxe sur les petits colis" (TPC) and a potential patchwork of national fees. In this episode I explain exactly why the EU followed Trump’s lead to abolish De Minimus, how Temu and Shein gamed the old system with 91% of small parcels from China, and why even experts can’t keep up with the constant rule changes. The Paradox Bomb: Rules designed to make trade fairer and crush e-commerce fraud are actually making everything more complicated, more expensive, and potentially hurting the very businesses and consumers they were meant to protect.  So what for business leaders? Higher friction costs, a massive incentive to shift to EU fulfilment centres instead of direct shipping from the UK, US or Asia. Listen to the podcast for more details. If you send or receive small packages to Europe — e-commerce, cross-border gifts, online shopping — this is essential listening. Keywords / Tags: EU de minimis 2026, end of €150 threshold, low value packages customs, low value consignments, small parcels EU, customs duties July 2026, Temu, Shein , EU rules, e-commerce imports Europe, cheap parcels, EU customs changes 2026, global trade podcast. IMPORTANT NOTE: This episode does not constitute advice in any form.  Get expert advice from an expert, specific to your circumstances, before relying on any information contained in this episode.  Rules, legislation, practice guidance and thresholds can also change.  The content of this podcast is intended only to provide an information resource of interest and does not constitute legal, tax, business, or financial advice of any kind. Should you require advice, engage an appropriately qualified person. Views expressed are my own. Subscribe to Global Trade Deciphered for unfiltered briefings on the policies, trends and geopolitics reshaping global trade. Share with anyone who’s ever cursed at a parcel notification. Photo credit: Photo Credit: Breathe Icon Team: Sebastian Porta, Cory Kontros, Andrew Starr-Bochicchio, licensed under the Creative Commons [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/en:Creative_Commons] Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/deed.en] If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow. *Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM   or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com [privilegeddiscussions@gmail.com]   Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered [https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered] *Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

Digital Tariffs 2026: WTO E-Commerce Moratorium Dies – Customs Duties on Netflix, SaaS & Data Now Possible | Fireside Chat

Send us Fan Mail [https://www.buzzsprout.com/2422711/fan_mail/new] 📌 Digital Tariffs 2026: WTO E-Commerce Moratorium Dies – Customs Duties on Netflix, SaaS & Data Now Possible | Fireside Chat The 28-year WTO ban on customs duties for electronic transmissions has just lapsed. For the first time since 1998, countries can now tax downloads, streaming (Netflix, Spotify), e-books, SaaS subscriptions, cloud data transfers and every other electronic flow — exactly like physical goods. In this relaxed Fireside Chat, Justin Hayden Miller breaks down: • Why this is “MEGA” for businesses and consumers (and why the US and EU fought so hard to keep it) • The new patchwork of digital border rules that compliance teams will have to track • Why this changes everything we thought we knew about customs in the 21st century • Plus: latest Hormuz crisis update, aversion therapy strategy, Suez & Panama chokepoints, UNCTAD trade figures, and what it all means for global supply chains A genuine “Paradox Bomb” episode: in the age of seamless digital globalisation, the rules designed to keep data borderless have just crumbled. 🎙️ Fireside Chat format — no script, straight talk from the armchair. Send Justin a voice message or fan mail directly from this episode page (link at the top of the description) — he reads and replies to every one. The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, tax or financial advice. Always consult a qualified professional for your specific situation. #DigitalTariffs #WTO #EcommerceMoratorium #GlobalTrade2026 #HormuzCrisis #SupplyChainRisk If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow. *Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM   or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com [privilegeddiscussions@gmail.com]   Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered [https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered] *Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

Tintin’s Black Gold Warning: Hormuz, Kharg Island, Red Sea Houthi & $150 Shock

Send us Fan Mail [https://www.buzzsprout.com/2422711/fan_mail/new] Tintin warned us in the 1950s. In 2026 the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz are exploding just like the comic – and $150 oil is no longer science fiction. In this episode I crack open Hergé’s Tintin: Land of Black Gold and show how its 1950s story of sabotaged tankers, exploding fuel and Middle East intrigue is playing out in real time in the 2026 Red Sea Houthi crisis and Hormuz oil shock. Here’s what you’ll hear: • The eerie parallels between the comic’s desert kingdom of Khemed and today’s Red Sea Houthi attacks, Iran tensions, tanker routes and underground facilities • Why a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure or fresh Red Sea shipping disruption isn’t just a shipping headache – it’s a global supply chain shock that could slam trade balances, ignite inflation and hand the next recession its starter’s pistol • How the 1970s oil crises (the ones that forced Europe to invent summer time) are already repeating in the 2026 Middle East oil crisis • The demand-side playbook smart governments and businesses can use tomorrow – no lectures, just pick-and-choose moves that actually work while everyone else waits for calm seas Hergé never wrote a sequel to Land of Black Gold. But the sequel to today’s Red Sea and Hormuz events is unfolding every morning in the news. If you’re a business leader, policymaker or anyone tracking energy security, oil prices and global trade disruption in 2026, hit play now. IEA Press Conference Link: https://www.iea.org/events/video-statement-by-iea-executive-director-on-iea-oil-stock-release [https://www.iea.org/events/video-statement-by-iea-executive-director-on-iea-oil-stock-release] Global Trade Deciphered – decoding what matters before it hits balance sheets. If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow. *Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM   or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com [privilegeddiscussions@gmail.com]   Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered [https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered] *Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

Strait of Hormuz Crisis 2026: Customs Compliance Survival Guide with Maersk's William Petty [TOP EXPERT INTERVIEW]

Send us Fan Mail [https://www.buzzsprout.com/2422711/fan_mail/new] In this episode we discuss how businesses might handle the compliance chaos of the Strait of Hormuz blockade—ships stalled, oil prices soaring, supply chains crumbling etc.. How are businesses dodging compliance pitfalls amid this geopolitical storm? Maersk's innovation Lead and expert, William Petty, reveals insider strategies. * Strait of Hormuz disruptions: Seafarers at risk, vessels rerouted—what's the real knock-on for your global trade ops? * COVID parallels: Bottlenecks, piracy, Suez flashbacks—are we in for another black swan era? * Compliance wake-up call: Why your supply chain, logistics, and customs teams must sync now to slash delays and costs. * Non-traditional regs exploding: CBAM carbon taxes, EU deforestation rules, US forced labor bans—ready to track geolocated trees or cotton spinners? * Tariffs * Trade fragmentation frenzy: Bilateral deals, sectoral carve-outs—navigating the spider's web of evolving tariffs and borders. * AI and tech lifelines: Shrinking the haystack with data analytics—spot misclassifications, prioritize 80/20 risks, unlock duty savings. * Digital product passports revolution: Real-time data sharing for friction-free borders—could this transform your imports forever? * 2026 trends alert: UK CBAM incoming, forced labor regs spreading—opportunities in digital corridors or more compliance headaches? William Petty, Maersk's Trade and Customs Consulting innovation Lead with 20+ years from World Economic Forum to global alliances, joins host Justin Hayden Miller to decipher it all. Global trade pros: Is your business resilient enough? Tune in for actionable hooks on supply chain disruptions, customs compliance strategies, and logistics innovation. #StraitOfHormuzCrisis #CustomsCompliance #SupplyChainDisruptions #MaerskInsights #CBAM #DigitalTrade #GlobalTradePodcast Subscribe on Apple Podcasts for more on geopolitics reshaping trade. Share if this hits your supply chain nerve! If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow. *Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM   or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com [privilegeddiscussions@gmail.com]   Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered [https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered] *Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.