Is China Really Going to Take Taiwan & Trump-Xi-Putin Summit Outcomes w/ China Expert Lyle Goldstein

Is China Really Going to Take Taiwan & Trump-Xi-Putin Summit Outcomes w/ China Expert Lyle Goldstein

A Taiwan crisis may be closer, more complex, and more dangerous than Washington wants to admit. 👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ [https://www.restrictedhandling.com/] to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more Ryan Fugit is joined by Professor Lyle Goldstein, Director of Brown University's China Initiative, longtime scholar of Chinese and Russian military strategy, former U.S. Naval War College professor, and founding director of the China Maritime Studies Institute. They break down the recent Trump-Xi summit, Xi's engagement with Putin, the China-Russia strategic relationship, Taiwan's role in U.S.-China tensions, and what a real Taiwan contingency could look like. In this episode, we cover: • Why great-power summits still matter • How China views Taiwan as the core flashpoint • Whether China is preparing for a 2026 or 2027 Taiwan move • What PLA purges may really signal • Why an invasion may start with firepower, helicopters, drones, and special forces • How blockade scenarios compare to full invasion • Why prediction markets are pricing Taiwan risk • Why Lyle rejects the "peak China" argument • What the U.S. administration should understand about China, Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan This episode matters because Taiwan is where U.S. deterrence, Chinese nationalism, military geography, semiconductor anxiety, alliance commitments, and escalation risk all collide. About Lyle Goldstein Professor Lyle Goldstein is Director of Brown University's China Initiative, a longtime scholar of Chinese and Russian military strategy, a former professor at the U.S. Naval War College, and the founding director of the China Maritime Studies Institute. In the episode, he also notes his work at Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank focused on realism and restraint. Restricted Handling https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ [https://www.restrictedhandling.com/] Lyle Goldstein books and resources Target Taiwan: Challenges for a U.S. intervention https://www.defensepriorities.org/explainers/target-taiwan-challenges-for-a-us-intervention/ [https://www.defensepriorities.org/explainers/target-taiwan-challenges-for-a-us-intervention/] The New Cold War at Sea: Maritime Implications of the China-Russia Quasi-Alliance https://www.usni.org/press/books/new-cold-war-sea [https://www.usni.org/press/books/new-cold-war-sea] Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging US-China Rivalry https://press.georgetown.edu/Book/Meeting-China-Halfway [https://press.georgetown.edu/Book/Meeting-China-Halfway] Preventive Attack and Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Comparative Historical Analysis https://www.sup.org/books/politics/preventive-attack-and-weapons-mass-destruction [https://www.sup.org/books/politics/preventive-attack-and-weapons-mass-destruction] Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/5/ [https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/5/] China, the United States and 21st Century Sea Power: Defining a Maritime Security Partnership https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/4/ [https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/4/] China Goes to Sea: Maritime Transformation in Comparative Historical Perspective https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/3/ [https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/3/] China's Energy Strategy: The Impact on Beijing's Maritime Policies https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/2/ [https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/2/] China's Future Nuclear Submarine Force https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/1/ [https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/1/] China's Nuclear Force Modernization https://paperzz.com/doc/7936415/china-s-nuclear-force-modernization [https://paperzz.com/doc/7936415/china-s-nuclear-force-modernization] Five Dragons Stirring Up the Sea https://openlibrary.org/works/OL15889049W/Five_dragons_stirring_up_the_sea [https://openlibrary.org/works/OL15889049W/Five_dragons_stirring_up_the_sea] Not Congruent but Quite Complementary: U.S. and Chinese Approaches to Nontraditional Security https://www.andrewerickson.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/China-Maritime-Study-9_US-China-NTS-Perspectives_Goldstein_201207.pdf [https://www.andrewerickson.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/China-Maritime-Study-9_US-China-NTS-Perspectives_Goldstein_201207.pdf] Timeline / chapters • 00:00 Ryan introduces Lyle Goldstein and the China-Taiwan focus • 01:46 Defense Priorities Taiwan series and the Trump-Xi summit setup • 02:26 Why great-power summits matter and who gained leverage • 05:11 How China-Russia ties shape the summit backdrop • 06:00 Taiwan at the center of U.S.-China relations • 11:34 Taiwan, chips, AI, and invasion timelines • 12:49 China's preparations and the 2026 or 2027 question • 15:01 PLA purges and what they may signal about Xi's control • 19:54 Breaking down the military dimensions of a Taiwan invasion • 20:30 Blockades, gray-zone coercion, and U.S. intervention risk • 22:40 Would China target civilian infrastructure? • 23:23 Helicopters, special operations forces, and the first day of war • 25:35 Airborne insertions, casualties, and drone resupply • 28:30 Why an invasion may not look like U.S. amphibious doctrine • 33:06 Would Taiwan become an insurgency? • 38:22 Prediction markets and the odds of invasion or blockade • 41:28 What Lyle would tell the U.S. administration about China • 46:53 Closing thoughts and where to find Lyle's work

Ryan & Glenn: Trump and Xi Test Each Other as Taiwan, Iran, and Ukraine Collide

Trump and Xi are testing each other over Taiwan, Iran, and global leverage while Russia, Ukraine, and China's influence operations keep reshaping the map. 👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ [https://www.restrictedhandling.com/] to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn break down the latest in U.S.-China talks, China's pressure over Taiwan, Ukraine's battlefield innovation, Iran's maximalist negotiating posture, and Chinese influence operations inside the United States. In this episode, we cover: • Trump and Xi in Beijing, Taiwan, and the risk of miscalculation • China's position on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and weapons support • Ukraine's battlefield gains, AI-enabled air defense, and anti-corruption pressure • Iran's nuclear demands, sanctions relief, and Gulf security • Chinese influence operations at the municipal level in the U.S. • The role former intelligence officers could play as ambassadors • Mexico, cartels, Russian presence, and the southern border • What Ryan and Glenn are reading right now • AJ Pasciuiti's new book Darkhorse and the sniper story behind it This episode matters because the same strategic contest is showing up everywhere: great-power diplomacy, battlefield adaptation, maritime chokepoints, local influence operations, and the fight to keep open societies from being exploited. Timeline / chapters • 00:00 Ryan introduces Restricted Handling and Glenn's background • 01:23 Glenn's Breitling hat, family memories, and lucky charms • 04:41 Ryan's lost Omega story from North Africa • 05:34 Trump and Xi in Beijing, Taiwan, and handshake betting markets • 08:02 Glenn on Taiwan, risk, and Putin's Beijing signal • 09:18 China, Iran, Hormuz, and weapons support claims • 12:20 Ambassador Satterfield and running a country team • 14:19 Ukraine ceasefire claims and Zelensky's humor • 16:41 Ukraine's net battlefield gains and innovation • 17:56 Palantir, AI models, drones, and Ukrainian adaptation • 19:48 NATO, EU accession, and Ukraine's desired U.S. relationship • 21:26 Yermak, corruption, transparency, and Russian talking points • 23:34 Iran's negotiating demands and Trump's rejection • 24:58 Hormuz, naval coalitions, and Gulf partners • 26:49 Chinese influence operations in Arcadia and Manhattan • 29:43 Glenn on public service, ambassadors, and former CIA officers • 32:17 Mexico, cartels, CIA reporting, and Russian presence • 35:21 What Ryan and Glenn are reading • 36:49 AJ Pasciuiti's Darkhorse and the sniper story behind the book About AJ Pasciuiti AJ Pasciuiti is a 21-year Marine, Force Recon Scout Sniper, Marine officer, author, speaker, and host of Combat Story. His book Darkhorse: Harnessing Hidden Potential in War and Life is available May 19, 2026. Order Darkhorse on Amazon https://www.amazon.com/Darkhorse-Harnessing-Hidden-Potential-Life/dp/1400254973 [https://www.amazon.com/Darkhorse-Harnessing-Hidden-Potential-Life/dp/1400254973] Learn more about AJ and Darkhorse https://www.ajpasciuti.com/ [https://www.ajpasciuti.com/] Darkhorse book page https://www.ajpasciuti.com/book [https://www.ajpasciuti.com/book] How to find Glenn Corn Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/ [https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/]) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/ [https://greatsouthbayinc.com/]). Restricted Handling https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ [https://www.restrictedhandling.com/]

Iran, China, Russia, and U.S. Strategy w/ Amb David Satterfield and CIA Officer (Ret) Glenn Corn

Ambassador David Satterfield lays out why the Middle East crisis is not just about Iran, Gaza, or the Strait of Hormuz, but about whether the U.S. still knows how to run serious national security policy. 👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ [https://www.restrictedhandling.com/] to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn are joined by Ambassador David Satterfield, director of Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy and a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey and Lebanon, for a wide-ranging conversation on the Middle East, Iran, China, Russia, Ukraine, Syria, diplomacy, and the machinery of U.S. foreign policy. Satterfield argues that classic military power is struggling against asymmetric actors like Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, and that kinetic force alone cannot deliver strategic outcomes without political frameworks, patience, and a functioning national security process. In this episode, we cover: • Why Iran's Strait of Hormuz threat has become a global economic weapon • Why Satterfield now believes leaving the JCPOA was a mistake • The limits of military power against Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran • How the collapse of State Department and NSC capacity affects crisis management • Why Syria policy required bold decisions, but also needs a team to sustain gains • Why China is the most formidable U.S. adversary • How Saudi Arabia, the UAE, energy, critical minerals, and China fit together • Why Satterfield would advise against rushing into a Beijing summit • Putin's Victory Day ceasefire, Ukraine's position, and Russia's gains from the Hormuz crisis • What Yitzhak Rabin and James Baker taught Satterfield about leadership, principle, and diplomacy This is a masterclass in strategic patience, national security process, and the danger of confusing tactical strikes with strategy. Timeline / chapters • 00:00 Ambassador David Satterfield joins Ryan and Glenn • 02:04 How chaotic is the Middle East right now? • 03:03 UAE, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, and regional change • 05:36 Why asymmetric actors frustrate classic military power • 08:30 Gaza, Hezbollah, and the missing political framework • 11:18 Why leaving the JCPOA was a mistake • 13:49 Trump, Israel, and the decision to confront Iran • 17:08 Iran turns the Strait of Hormuz into a global weapon • 20:00 Why strikes have not eliminated Iran's missile and drone capacity • 24:10 Why tweets cannot manage strategic adversaries • 25:35 Why State and the NSC cannot function without teams • 26:35 Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, and Tom Barrack's role • 32:15 Bold policy needs sustainment • 36:55 Tom Barrack, Lebanon, Syria, and speaking bluntly • 39:26 How Satterfield would advise Trump before a China trip • 41:11 China's technical, industrial, and espionage challenge • 44:08 Saudi Arabia, China, and the real logic behind the U.S.-Saudi deal • 48:30 Why Satterfield would tell Trump not to go to Beijing yet • 51:25 Putin's Victory Day ceasefire and Ukraine • 55:55 Russia benefits from the Strait of Hormuz crisis • 59:10 Should Ukraine strike during the Victory Day parade? • 1:03:09 The real issue: how to conduct national security policy • 1:04:44 Rabin, Baker, and the most interesting figures Satterfield worked with • 1:08:33 Satterfield's work at Rice University's Baker Institute About David Satterfield Ambassador David M. Satterfield is the director of Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy and leads its Edward P. Djerejian Center for the Middle East. He has more than four decades of diplomatic and leadership experience, including service as U.S. ambassador to Turkey and Lebanon, assistant secretary of state, National Security Council staff director, special envoy for the Horn of Africa, and chargé d'affaires in Iraq and Egypt. Baker Institute profile https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/david-m-satterfield [https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/david-m-satterfield] Rice University profile https://profiles.rice.edu/staff/david-satterfield [https://profiles.rice.edu/staff/david-satterfield] How to find Glenn Corn Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/ [https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/]) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/ [https://greatsouthbayinc.com/]). Restricted Handling https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ [https://www.restrictedhandling.com/]

How Russia Negotiates, Putin's Trap, Iran's Bluff, Drone Lessons Missed w/ Retired CIA Officer Glenn Corn

Retired CIA Chief of Station and Senior Case Officer Glenn Corn argues the crises in Ukraine, Iran, Cuba, and the Strait of Hormuz are connected fronts in one larger fight. 👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ [https://www.restrictedhandling.com/] to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn are back for a no-guest episode covering Ukraine, Russia, Iran, espionage, drones, Cuba, China, and the geopolitical pressure points that are moving fast right now. Glenn opens with his recent trip to Ukraine, where he escorted an American business delegation and spoke at the Kiev Security Forum alongside senior intelligence and national security figures. From there, Ryan and Glenn dig into how Moscow negotiates, why Putin's ceasefire offer around May 9 should be treated skeptically, and why Glenn believes the United States and Europe still have more leverage over Russia than many people think. In this episode, we cover: • Glenn's latest trip to Ukraine with American investors and business leaders • Why Glenn sees Russia and Iran as linked strategic threats • How Russian negotiators use maximalist demands, theater, and psychological pressure • Julie Davis, US diplomatic coverage in Ukraine, and why Kyiv needs a full-time ambassador • Putin's May 9 Victory Day messaging and the history Russia leaves out • Russian and Iranian low-level espionage in Europe • The UAE, OPEC, and the Strait of Hormuz crisis • Why Glenn argues for an international naval force to reopen the straits • Iran's nuclear negotiations, political pressure, and the lessons of Ukrainian counter-drone warfare • Cuba sanctions, Venezuela, Nicaragua, China, and authoritarian pressure in the Western Hemisphere • China's drone swarm threat and America's procurement problem This episode matters because Glenn frames these crises as part of a broader strategic contest, not isolated news cycles. Russia, Iran, China, North Korea, Cuba, and Venezuela are applying pressure across multiple fronts, and the United States and its allies are still deciding how hard, how fast, and how coherently they are willing to respond. Timeline / chapters • 00:00 Ryan opens the episode with Glenn back stateside • 01:01 Glenn's Ukraine trip with an American business delegation • 03:27 Kiev Security Forum and the Russia-Iran connection • 08:24 How Russian negotiators use maximalist demands • 12:15 Sanctions, Kirill Dmitriev, and pressure on Putin • 16:06 Julie Davis and why Ukraine needs a full-time US ambassador • 19:42 Territorial concessions and why Glenn says Russia is not holding the cards • 22:23 Victory Day, Soviet history, and Operation Snow • 26:59 Why Putin's May 9 ceasefire offer benefits Moscow • 28:30 Russian and Iranian espionage cases in Europe • 33:37 UAE, OPEC, and the Strait of Hormuz shock • 36:06 The case for an international naval force • 39:21 Iran's nuclear bluff and missed drone lessons • 43:03 Cuba sanctions and pressure in the Western Hemisphere • 45:50 China, AI, drone swarms, and US procurement gaps • 49:23 Upcoming guests and how to reach Glenn • 51:21 Wrap How to find Glenn Corn Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/ [https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/]) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/ [https://greatsouthbayinc.com/]). Restricted Handling: https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ [https://www.restrictedhandling.com/]

Russia Losing 2,300 Drones Per Month: Inside Drone Defense + New Tactics w/ Ukrainian Commander Zhan

This is what modern warfare actually looks like from the front lines. 👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ [https://www.restrictedhandling.com/] to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more In this episode, Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn are joined by Zhan, a deputy commander in Ukraine's Third Army Corps, responsible for air defense operations on one of the most complex battlefields in the world. Zhan went from serving in the merchant navy to defending Ukraine on the front lines and is now at the center of one of the most important evolutions in modern warfare. This is not theory. This is real-time adaptation under fire. In this episode, we cover: • What the battlefield in Ukraine actually looks like today • How drones have completely changed warfare • The three-layer air defense system Ukraine built in real time • Why logistics and medevac are now some of the biggest challenges • How soldiers survive in underground positions for weeks or months • The shift from "golden hour" to "golden months" in battlefield medicine • Why FPV drones are now the most dangerous threat • How Ukraine is training civilians and veterans to fight with drones • The connection between the war in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East • What Ukraine needs most right now from Western allies Zhan explains how Ukrainian forces are adapting faster than any military in modern history and why this war is shaping the future of global conflict. He also shares a deeply personal perspective on what it means to fight for your country and what comes after the war. Timeline / chapters • 00:00 Intro and Glenn's Ukraine trip • 05:13 How the war in Iran is affecting Ukraine • 12:04 Zhan joins from Kyiv • 13:07 Zhan's background and role in air defense • 18:39 Drone warfare and naval adaptation • 22:29 How fast soldiers can be trained on drones • 26:26 Layered air defense explained • 31:27 Logistics and medevac challenges • 36:35 Evolution from Bakhmut to today • 44:18 Comparing early war vs current battlefield • 53:27 Integration of UAVs and command systems • 58:27 Ukraine's view of the global war • 01:00:38 Zhan on the future of Ukraine About Zhan Zhan is a deputy commander in Ukraine's Third Army Corps specializing in air defense operations. He previously served in the merchant navy and joined the military at the start of the full-scale invasion. He has participated in major battles including Bakhmut and Avdiivka and is now leading efforts to build modern counter-UAV and air defense systems in Ukraine. How to find Glenn Corn Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/ [https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/]) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/ [https://greatsouthbayinc.com/]). Restricted Handling Subscribe and receive the daily intelligence brief https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ [https://www.restrictedhandling.com/]