Soft jobs, hard choices

Soft jobs, hard choices

The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, well below the 110,000 forecast in a Reuters poll, taking pressure off the Fed and pushing the dollar lower. Meanwhile, chip stocks sell off as investors rotate out of AI, and Asian factory activity expands, giving global stocks their best week since May. Today’s recommended read: LME metals whipsawed by war and peace in first half of 2026 [https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/lme-metals-whipsawed-by-war-peace-first-half-2026-2026-07-02/], Andy Home Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, [https://www.reuters.com/newsletters/morning-bid-us/] and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest [https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/] Read more from Amanda Cooper [https://www.reuters.com/authors/amanda-cooper/] and Anna Szymanski [https://www.reuters.com/authors/anna-szymanski/] Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement [https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/privacy-statement.html] for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://nam02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmegaphone.spotify.com%2Fabout-advertisements&data=05%7C02%7CGayle.Issa%40thomsonreuters.com%7Cdeedd17f603f4b360c6d08dd887d4c6f%7C62ccb8646a1a4b5d8e1c397dec1a8258%7C0%7C0%7C638816793925865321%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=wKzcMqK1Jgd8UvIvqngaWQBitV9DjLnzqGz8cs1suDw%3D&reserved=0] to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

Hire expectations

Meta surges 10% after reports the company is building out a cloud business and looking to monetize excess AI computing capacity. June payrolls land a day early, with the Fed's next move riding on the numbers. And the Financial Times reports OpenAI is proposing to hand the U.S. government a 5% stake ahead of a planned IPO. Today’s recommended read: Wall Street's aging bull meets an 'everlasting' US expansion [https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/wall-streets-aging-bull-meets-an-everlasting-us-expansion-2026-07-02/], Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, [https://www.reuters.com/newsletters/morning-bid-us/] and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest [https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/] Read more from Amanda Cooper [https://www.reuters.com/authors/amanda-cooper/] and Anna Szymanski [https://www.reuters.com/authors/anna-szymanski/] Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement [https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/privacy-statement.html] for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://nam02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmegaphone.spotify.com%2Fabout-advertisements&data=05%7C02%7CGayle.Issa%40thomsonreuters.com%7Cdeedd17f603f4b360c6d08dd887d4c6f%7C62ccb8646a1a4b5d8e1c397dec1a8258%7C0%7C0%7C638816793925865321%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=wKzcMqK1Jgd8UvIvqngaWQBitV9DjLnzqGz8cs1suDw%3D&reserved=0] to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

New quarter, old pressures

Fed chair Kevin Warsh speaks at the ECB's Sintra conference as markets hunt for fresh policy signals and Treasury yields climb. A surprise jump in U.S. job openings for a second straight month pushes the odds of a July Fed hike to one in three, with payrolls due Thursday. And the yen hits a 40-year low against the dollar, with Japanese authorities still holding back on intervention. Today’s recommended read: Youth, task forces and AI debt - notes from the week [https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/youth-task-forces-ai-debt-notes-week-2026-07-01/], Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, [https://www.reuters.com/newsletters/morning-bid-us/] and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest [https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/] Read more from Amanda Cooper [https://www.reuters.com/authors/amanda-cooper/] and Anna Szymanski [https://www.reuters.com/authors/anna-szymanski/] Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

Special Edition: Morning Bid halftime show

In a special midyear edition of Morning Bid, Mike Dolan is joined by Jamie McGeever to look back on a wild first half of 2026, with record highs for the S&P 500 and Dow, the best quarter ever for U.S. chip stocks, and the worst month on record for the Magnificent Seven. Plus, a look ahead to midterm elections, a deeply divided Fed outlook, and what a Supreme Court ruling on Lisa Cook means for the central bank. Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here [https://www.reuters.com/newsletters/trading-day/]. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, [https://www.reuters.com/newsletters/morning-bid-us/] and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest [https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/] Read more from Amanda Cooper [https://www.reuters.com/authors/amanda-cooper/] and Anna Szymanski [https://www.reuters.com/authors/anna-szymanski/] Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement [https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/privacy-statement.html] for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://nam02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmegaphone.spotify.com%2Fabout-advertisements&data=05%7C02%7CGayle.Issa%40thomsonreuters.com%7Cdeedd17f603f4b360c6d08dd887d4c6f%7C62ccb8646a1a4b5d8e1c397dec1a8258%7C0%7C0%7C638816793925865321%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=wKzcMqK1Jgd8UvIvqngaWQBitV9DjLnzqGz8cs1suDw%3D&reserved=0] to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. [https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/about-us/trust-principles.html] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

Halfway there

Markets reach the halfway point of 2026 with a packed and shortened week, with the June payrolls report moved to Thursday ahead of the July 4 holiday. Chip stocks are sitting on their best quarter on record, but profit-taking, a possible OpenAI IPO delay, and a fresh warning from the Bank for International Settlements about the durability of the AI boom are giving investors pause. Oil markets shrug off a weekend U.S.-Iran exchange after both sides agree to resume talks, and Andy Burnham prepares to make his first major economic address as the UK's widely presumed prime minister-in-waiting. Today’s recommended read: Hormuz oil exodus sets stage for chaotic rebalancing act, [https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/hormuz-oil-exodus-sets-stage-chaotic-rebalancing-act-2026-06-29/] Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, [https://www.reuters.com/newsletters/morning-bid-us/] and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest [https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/] Read more from Amanda Cooper [https://www.reuters.com/authors/amanda-cooper/] and Anna Szymanski [https://www.reuters.com/authors/anna-szymanski/] Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement [https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/privacy-statement.html] for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://nam02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmegaphone.spotify.com%2Fabout-advertisements&data=05%7C02%7CGayle.Issa%40thomsonreuters.com%7Cdeedd17f603f4b360c6d08dd887d4c6f%7C62ccb8646a1a4b5d8e1c397dec1a8258%7C0%7C0%7C638816793925865321%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=wKzcMqK1Jgd8UvIvqngaWQBitV9DjLnzqGz8cs1suDw%3D&reserved=0] to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. [https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/about-us/trust-principles.html] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]