Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking - Baillie Gifford

From microloans for farmers to free savings accounts for the ‘unbanked’ to customised insurance for gig workers to a cheaper, faster way for migrants to send money to loved ones: a growing range of services is helping many of the world’s least advantaged citizens increase their financial resilience. Previously, banks and other traditional lending institutions overlooked these customers. But as impact director Ed Whitten explains, by backing the companies now involved, you have an opportunity to improve people’s lives and achieve strong growth.   Background: Ed Whitten is an impact director in Baillie Gifford’s Positive Change Strategy. Its dual objective is to provide our clients with attractive returns while contributing to a more inclusive, healthy world. Whitten’s role is to ensure that the companies it holds fulfil the second part of that pledge.   In this episode, he explores the topic of financial inclusion, explaining why the companies involved need to do more than simply provide access to loans, insurance and money transfers. Topics include how firms can use data and apps to deliver customised services that address specific people’s needs while protecting them from indebtedness. Whitten also explains how conversations with the companies Positive Change backs can nudge them towards better outcomes, such as providing customers with better financial education. And he explores the importance of helping people gain financial resilience against the effects of climate change and other events that could otherwise devastate their livelihoods.   Companies covered include:   Nubank – the digital-only bank used by most Brazilian adults that’s also growing in Mexico and Colombia.   Grab – the south-east Asian ride-hailing and delivery service that provides loans and insurance to drivers and merchants using its platform.   Remitly – the remittance service offering migrants a quick, low-cost and reliable way to transfer money to family and friends.   HDFC Bank – the Indian lender expanding its rural branch network to explain face-to-face how its services can put customers on a better financial path.   Resources: Case study: Maliga [https://v.hdfcbank.com/csr/initiatives/financial-literacy-inclusion.html] Nubank’s Beyond Access study [https://mastercardcontentexchange.com/news/media/1q0hfryx/mcg-24054-nubank-financial-inclusion-whitepaper_final.pdf] Positive Conversations 2024 [https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/individual-investors/positive-conversations/] The Song of the Cell [https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/439801/the-song-of-the-cell-by-mukherjee-siddhartha/9781529111781] Trip Notes: Brazil (UK version [https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/individual-investors/insights/ic-article/2023-q1-trust-46-trip-notes-brazil-10019295/] / Ex-UK version [https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/individual-investors/insights/ic-article/2023-q2-finding-brazil-s-social-innovators-10020236/])   Companies mentioned include: Chime [https://www.chime.com/] Bank Rakyat Indonesia [https://bri.co.id/en/home] Grab [https://www.grab.com/] HDFC Bank [https://www.hdfcbank.com/] MercadoLibre [https://mercadolibre.com/] Nubank [https://nubank.com.br/] Remitly [https://www.remitly.com/]   Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 02:05  From the British Army to impact investing 03:40  A sustainable, inclusive, healthy world 04:25  The different types of financial inclusion 05:40  Eyes open to the risks of indebtedness 06:45  Volatile repayment rates 07:35  Beyond accessibility: the personalisation of products 09:05  Partnering with CGAP and other development bodies 10:25   Nubank’s Caixinha money boxes 12:45   Nubank’s Mexican banking licence 14:15   Ensuring growth comes with impact 15:20   Grab’s loans and insurance 16:40   Grab’s data-driven approach to risk 19:45   The fast growth of remittances 21:25   Remitly’s cheaper money transfers 22:35  Gaining market share from Western Union 23:40  HDFC Bank’s expanding rural branch network 24:55  Financial inclusion in advanced economies 26:55  The ‘lucrative customers of the future’ 28:15   Book choice

Emerging markets are reshaping the global economy, and a convergence of powerful, long-term trends is accelerating this shift. These include surging demand for commodities, exploding middle-class spending power and booming inter-regional trade. Investment specialist Andrew Keiller reveals some of the standout growth companies positioned to capitalise on this transformation and why now might be the perfect time to take advantage.   Background: Andrew Keiller is a partner in Baillie Gifford and an investment specialist in our Emerging Markets Clients Team. In this episode, he discusses how some of the fastest-growing developing economies are driving change in the world and the forces that could further hasten that trend. The discussion builds on his recent paper, Emerging markets in 2050: growth in a changing world, which identifies long-term structural shifts tilting the odds in favour of standout companies in Asia, Latin America and eastern Europe. In the podcast, he expands on this by identifying some of the companies that could be big winners, including: * the lithium miner SQM (Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile), which is set to benefit from a mismatch in supply and demand for the critical ingredient to electric car batteries and other energy storage systems * the South Korean high bandwidth memory chipmaker, SK Hynix, whose products are critical to training artificial intelligence systems at speed * the ‘super-app’ operator Kaspi.kz, which provides everything from bill payments, banking and travel bookings to shopping, maps and messaging *  the Singaporean ecommerce, fintech and gaming conglomerate Sea, whose chief executive has ambitions to extend into further sectors * China’s biggest coffee chain, Luckin Coffee, which is giving the country’s 1.4 billion citizens a passion for the beverage with its ever-changing menu of inventive recipes In addition, Keiller discusses the implications of President Trump’s tariffs and why many Chinese companies still offer an exciting investment opportunity.   Resources:   Emerging markets in 2050: growth in a changing world [https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/individual-investors/insights/ic-article/2025-q1-emerging-markets-in-2050-10053698/] Emerging markets: our philosophy [https://www.bailliegifford.com/insights/ic-video/2024-q2-emerging-markets-our-philosophy-10046781/] Emerging markets: rethinking the opportunity [https://www.bailliegifford.com/insights/ic-article/2024-q4-emerging-markets-rethinking-the-opportunity-10051128/] Finding high-calibre growth companies in emerging markets (podcast) [https://www.bailliegifford.com/insights/ic-article/2024-q1-high-calibre-emerging-markets-firms-10046529/] Luckin Coffee: looking forward [https://www.bailliegifford.com/insights/ic-article/2024-q2-em-monthly-april-luckin-coffee-10046862/] Kaspi's super-app [https://www.bailliegifford.com/insights/ic-article/2025-q1-trust-50-trip-notes-kazakhstan-10053695/] South-east Asia’s rising export stars (podcast) [https://www.bailliegifford.com/insights/ic-article/2023-q4-south-east-asia-s-rising-export-stars-10041012/] SQM: powering the future [https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/institutional-investor/insights/ic-article/2025-q1-lithium-powering-the-future-10053932/] The Time-Travelling Economist by Charlie Robertson [https://www.springerprofessional.de/en/the-time-travelling-economist/23178322]   Companies mentioned include: Kaspi.kz [https://kaspi.kz/] Luckin Coffee [https://www.luckincoffee.com/] Sea [https://www.sea.com/] SK Hynix [https://www.skhynix.com/] SQM [https://sqm.com/en/] Timecodes: 00:00  Introduction 01:35  Baillie Gifford beginnings and a trip to Hong Kong 03:15  Transformational trends playing out to 2050 and beyond 05:05  US exceptionalism and multiple spheres of influence 07:25  Rising trade between emerging market nations 08:35  Redesigning Chinese e-scooters for Vietnam and the Philippines 10:15  The possibility of reduced reliance on the US dollar 11:40  Increasing demand for raw materials and semiconductors 12:35 Digital-first companies and underserved communities 14:45  Four types of firms capitalising on long-term growth factors 16:25  SQM’s lithium mines in Chile’s Atacama Desert 17:55  Lithium’s long-term commodity cycle opportunity 18:45  SK Hynix’s high bandwith memory and its role in AI 20:40  Kaspi.kz’s Kazakh super-app 21:40  Kaspi’s expansion plans in Uzbekistan and beyond 23:00  Sea’s founder Forrest Li and importance of culture 24:30  Luckin Coffee’s huge domestic opportunity 25:25  Luckin’s taste for invention 26:40  Investing in China amid a trade clash 28:50  The risk of underexposure 29:40  Book choice 30:55  Investing in Africa

Which UK growth firms have the greatest long-term potential? Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to “turbocharge” his government’s growth strategy after the US’s introduction of new tariffs. It promises to prioritise a handful of growth-driving sectors, including advanced manufacturing, the creative industries and ‘digital and technologies’. Our head of UK equity, Iain McCombie, has already invested in leading companies in each of these fields. In this episode, he discusses their ambitious growth plans, the importance of adaptability and why he remains confident of delivering strong long-term returns despite the trade restrictions.   BACKGROUND: Iain McCombie is a partner in Baillie Gifford, our head of UK equity and joint investment manager of the Baillie Gifford UK Growth Trust. He also jointly manages our flagship Managed Fund. In this episode, he discusses a selection of his portfolio companies that align with the growth-driving sectors the UK government promises to prioritise in its Invest 2035 strategy. These holdings include: *  the engineering company Renishaw, which specialises in measuring and manufacturing systems providing high accuracy and precision to customers including the semiconductor industry * the wargame miniatures maker Games Workshop, which is embarking on a TV and movie deal with Amazon * the self-driving car software developer Wayve, which signed a deal with Nissan to use its technology shortly after we recorded this episode * the financial services company Experian, whose vast collection of consumer debt data could become more valuable as artificial intelligence opens the door to new uses In addition, McCombie discusses how the government’s ambitious housebuilding targets could benefit Volution Group, whose ventilation products defend against dampness and mould, and the reason why his passion for history has taught him to be an optimist.     RESOURCES: Baillie Gifford UK Growth Trust [https://www.bailliegifford.com/funds/baillie-gifford-uk-growth-trust/] Investing in the UK’s best growth companies (webinar) [https://www.bailliegifford.com/insights/ic-video/2025-q1-uk-growth-trust-investing-in-the-uks-best-growth-companies-10053367/] Creo Medical: at the spearhead of surgery [https://www.bailliegifford.com/insights/ic-article/2024-q3-trust-49-creo-medical-at-the-spearhead-of-surgery-10049581/] UK Growth Trust: a 2024 perspective [https://www.bailliegifford.com/insights/ic-video/2024-q3-uk-growth-trust-s-2024-perspective-10049499/] Calder Walton: Spies – the epic intelligence war between East and West [https://www.hachette.co.uk/titles/calder-walton/spies/9781408714959/]     COMPANIES MENTIONED INCLUDE: AJ Bell [https://www.ajbell.co.uk/] Auto Trader [https://www.autotrader.co.uk/] Experian [https://www.experian.co.uk/] Games Workshop [https://www.warhammer.com/en-GB/home] Kainos [https://www.kainos.com/] Renishaw [https://www.renishaw.com/] Volution Group [https://www.volutiongroupplc.com/] Wayve [https://wayve.ai/] Wise [https://wise.com/] TIMECODES: 00:00 Introduction 01:35  Three decades at Baillie Gifford 02:20  UK equities’ appeal 02:55  Jointly managing the UK Growth Trust with Milena Mileva 03:35  The relationship with the Trust’s independent board 04:40  The UK government’s growth plans 05:40  Responding to US tariffs 06:50  Taking a long-term perspective 07:55  Advanced manufacturing: Renishaw 09:45  Industrial 3D printers 10:50  Creative industries: Games Workshop 12:45  Licensing Warhammer to Amazon 14:15  Digital and technologies: Wayve’s self-driving vehicle software 16:45 Kainos and AI 19:20  Auto Trader car-selling digital business 21:35  Financial services: Wise and AJ Bell 23:35  Experian’s consumer debt data 25:20  Volution Group: ventilation for new homes 27:25  The advantage of active investing 28:35  Book choice and lessons from history

Are European stocks coming back into favour? After years of underperformance, many of the continent’s companies appear undervalued when compared to their historical prices and US counterparts. Investment manager Stephen Paice suggests that a group of growth-focused stocks could be among the biggest winners if sentiment shifts, and he identifies a handful of places they are thriving.   Background   Stephen Paice is a partner in Baillie Gifford, our Head of European Equities, an investment manager on the Baillie Gifford Growth Trust and European Fund, and a member of our International All Cap Portfolio Construction Group. In this episode of Short Briefings…, he explores why European stocks have been trading at levels that make them appear historically cheap, what might cause opinion to turn, and how that relates to his pursuit of long-term exceptional growth. Topics discussed include why some companies are more resilient than others to trade tariffs and other price pressures, changing attitudes to regulation, and the importance of culture. Stephen also spotlights four categories of growth companies he believes offer huge promise: * the biological revolution: firms pioneering new treatments thanks to technological advances and deeper scientific understanding, with a focus on Novo Nordisk, Lonza and Camurus * dominant digital platforms: businesses carving out leading positions in niche markets, with special mention of Spotify and Adyen * semiconductors: companies fulfilling critical roles in the computer chip supply chain, including ASML and ASM International * luxury goods: companies deriving powerful advantages by bringing historic and prestigious brands under the same roof, including LVMH and Richemont   Resources Future stocks: our best ideas in Europe [https://www.bailliegifford.com/insights/ic-video/2024-q3-future-stocks-our-best-ideas-in-europe-10049780/] Europe’s hidden tech titans [https://www.bailliegifford.com/insights/ic-video/2024-q3-europes-growth-gems-10049500/] Benjamin Labatut: The Maniac [https://pushkinpress.com/book/the-maniac-2/] Gary Klein: Seeing What Others Don’t [https://www.hachette.co.uk/titles/gary-klein/seeing-what-others-dont/9781857886788/] Paul Kalanithi: When Breath Becomes Air [https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/431763/when-breath-becomes-air-by-kalanithi-paul/9781784701994] Richard Thomson: Apocalypse Roulette [https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Apocalypse_Roulette.html?id=FBwMNAAACAAJ&redir_esc=y] Companies mentioned include   Adyen [https://www.adyen.com/] ASM International [https://www.asm.com/] ASML [https://www.asml.com/en] Camurus [https://www.camurus.com/] Lonza [https://www.lonza.com/] LVMH [https://www.lvmh.com/] Novo Nordisk [https://www.novonordisk.com/] Richemont [https://www.richemont.com/] Schibsted Marketplaces [https://schibsted.com/] Spotify [https://www.spotify.com/] Timecodes 00:00  Introduction 01:45  From games of chance to European equities 03:30  The valuation opportunity 04:35  Addressing uncertainty and political instability 06:35  President Trump’s trade tariffs 08:30  Regulation and innovation 10:45  Our long-term growth investment philosophy 13:00  The case for Novo Nordisk 14:35  Tackling Wegovy’s muscle mass loss 15:25  Lonza’s growing market for biologics 16:50  Camurus’s FluidCrystal technology 18:05  Dominant digital platforms with network effects 19:40  Spotify chief executive Daniel Ek’s focus on customers 21:55  The importance of Adyen’s culture and leadership 24:40  ASML and ASM International’s semiconductor tools 27:25  Luxury conglomerates LVMH and Richemont 30:00  The advantage of ‘family involved’ companies 31:10  Being patient and putting up with volatility 31:55  Book picks 32:55  Spotting inconsistencies

Three technologies – quantum computing, reusable space rockets and nuclear fusion – could change the trajectory of human progress. Investment manager Luke Ward explains how a trio of private companies are bringing them closer to fruition.   Background: Luke Ward is an investment manager in Baillie Gifford’s Private Companies Team and recently became co-manager of the Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust. In this episode of Short Briefings…, he discusses three companies developing groundbreaking technologies and building innovative businesses as they do so: * PsiQuantum, which aims to create the world’s first useful quantum computers * SpaceX, which is well on its way to developing the first fully reusable space rocket, with a view to ultimately transporting people to Mars * SHINE Technologies, which is commercialising applications of nuclear fusion on the path to delivering a clean and safe energy source for the future Among the topics Ward covers are how photon-based quantum computers could drive progress in agriculture and batteries, among other industries. He also discusses how the Starlink satellite broadband provides a stepping stone to SpaceX’s larger ambitions. And he explains how SHINE’s work on detecting flaws in mission-critical aerospace components and making a new cancer treatment possible bring it closer to harnessing the reaction that powers the sun.   Resources: PsiQuantum: making the leap to quantum computing [https://www.bailliegifford.com/insights/ic-article/2024-q3-trust-49-psiquantum-the-leap-to-quantum-computing-10049575/] PsiQuantum: stock story [https://www.bailliegifford.com/insights/ic-video/2024-q2-stock-story-psiquantum-10047608/] SHINE Technologies: an interview with chief executive Greg Piefer [https://www.bailliegifford.com/insights/ic-article/2023-q3-shine-lights-the-way-10036137/] SpaceX and other private company trailblazers [https://www.bailliegifford.com/insights/ic-article/2024-q4-private-companies-investing-in-trailblazers-10051127/] Starlink: broadband from above [https://www.bailliegifford.com/insights/ic-article/2024-q1-trust-48-starlink-10045464/] Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust [https://www.bailliegifford.com/funds/edinburgh-worldwide-investment-trust/] Your vote, EWIT’s future [https://www.bailliegifford.com/insights/ic-video/2025-q1-your-vote-ewit-s-future-10052812/] EWIT: Saba vote [https://www.trustewit.com/]     Companies mentioned include: PsiQuantum [https://www.psiquantum.com/] SHINE Technologies [https://www.shinefusion.com/] SpaceX [https://www.spacex.com/] Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 01:50  From mechanical engineering to investment 02:55  Technological innovation informing business innovation 03:45  Quantum computing versus the ‘classical’ approach 04:55  Using quantum computers to disrupt chemical fertilisers 06:10  PsiQuantum’s semiconductor supply chain advantage 07:20  A photonic approach to computing 08:05  Signs that PsiQuantum could succeed 09:45  PsiQuantum’s potential business model 10:30  Partnering with Mitsubishi Chemical and Mercedes-Benz 11:35  SpaceX: satellite launches and advanced rockets 12:35  Starlink’s high-speed internet from orbit 13:40  Connecting smartphones directly to Starlink 15:05  The investment case for Mars 16:55  Leading Baillie Gifford’s SpaceX investment in 2018 19:35  Considering other space industry investments 10:21  Nuclear fusion v fission 22:25  SHINE Technologies’ stepping stone approach 23:20  From advanced imaging to radiopharmaceuticals 24:15  Clinical trials for prostate cancer treatment Lutetium-177 24:40  Recycling nuclear waste 25:50  Saba vote: giving the public access to private companies 27:35  Investing in geothermal energy 28:30  Seeking inspiration in Silicon Valley