The Subsidy Cliff: What Happens When the Incentives Run Out

The Subsidy Cliff: What Happens When the Incentives Run Out

Ontario Rentals: It’s Not Too Much Supply—It’s Too Expensive (Absorption Crash, Policy Risk, and What to Buy)   Addy Saeed reviews Ontario’s multifamily market using CMHC, Rentals.ca, OSFI, and Urbanation signals, arguing the issue isn’t “too much rental housing” but too much new supply priced above what renters can afford. CMHC absorption at completion fell from 89% (May 2025) to 64% (May 2026), with completed unabsorbed inventory up 54% to 12,829 units nationally, while CMHC flags Ontario methodology as under review. Rentals.ca data shows 42% of renters target under $1,500 versus a $2,029 average asking rent, and 70% cite affordability as the top challenge. He discusses OSFI’s stability buffer cut as capacity (not lower rates), rent-control policy risk (including Ontario’s post-2018 exemption), rising GTHA vacancy in post-2000 buildings (5.4%), major long-lag approvals (Vaughan’s 9,950 units), Brad Lamb’s subsidy-dependent pivot to purpose-built rentals, and student housing as a niche with visa-cap demand risk, concluding oversupply risk is concentrated in levered, premium, incentive-dependent new builds while older below-replacement-cost stock is more insulated.   00:00 Absorption Shock Intro 00:57 CMHC Absorption Data 03:00 Renters Affordability Gap 04:54 OSFI Buffer Cut 06:16 Rent Control Policy Risk 08:21 Fitzrovia Lease Up Reality 09:40 Vaughan Mega Approval Lag 11:05 Brad Lamb Subsidy Cliff 13:13 Student Housing Exception 15:11 How Much Is Too Much 18:05 Wrap Up And Disclosures   About Your Hosts:  Addy Saeed: With over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, I've navigated through the complexities of property investment, development, and management. My goal is to demystify real estate investing for our listeners.   Web Links Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-manage-3225/about Get access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com

Ontario's Slowest Growth Year — And the Landlords Still Winning

Why New Rentals Near Universities Are Sitting Empty + RBC on Ontario’s Fragile Rebound (Smart Real Estate)   Addy Saeed and Ribhu Rampersad unpack a “vacancy paradox” in Ontario: CMHC data shows higher vacancy concentrated in post-2020 builds and student-adjacent units, even as student housing need remains acute, because today’s land, construction, and financing costs force rents beyond what many tenants can pay while older buildings bought below replacement cost stay full. They review RBC’s latest housing data showing a 5.5% national resale jump month over month led by Ontario at 8.8%, alongside continued year-over-year price declines and condo weakness in Kitchener-Waterloo, Toronto, and Niagara, with RBC calling the rebound fragile. RBC also forecasts Ontario 2026 growth at 0.4% and does not expect Bank of Canada hikes in 2026, pushing gradual hikes to 2027. They cover Guelph’s new tenant protection measures, RECO’s new brokerage financial filing regime, and institutional activity including Starlight’s 698-unit Mississauga rental proposal and Hazelview’s view that Canada remains undersupplied.   00:00 Vacancy Paradox Setup 00:59 Why New Student Housing Sits Empty 01:40 Investor Math on Affordability 03:07 RBC Resale Rebound Data 05:06 Ontario Growth and Rate Outlook 07:40 Guelph and RECO Regulations 09:25 Institutional Capital Moves 11:17 Wrap Up and Disclosures About Your Hosts:  Addy Saeed: With over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, I've navigated through the complexities of property investment, development, and management. My goal is to demystify real estate investing for our listeners.     Web Links Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-ma...  Get access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com

Ontario's Rental Reset: Rates, Rents & the Road Back

CMHC vs Rentals.ca: The Rental Market Split, BoC Rate Hold, and Why 2027 Matters   Addy Saeed and mortgage agent Ribhu Rampersad connect three signals shaping Canadian real estate: CMHC’s mid-year rental update, the Rentals.ca National Rent Report, and a Bank of Canada rate hold at 2.25%. They argue the rental market is bifurcating—post-2020 new builds and areas near post-secondary institutions face higher vacancies, slow absorption and incentives, while older stabilized buildings and family-sized units remain tighter, with rent growth driven mainly by turnover resets. Rentals.ca shows national asking rents down 4.7% year-over-year (20 straight months), Ontario down 5%, Toronto down for 28 months, and sharp suburban declines (Richmond Hill -14.3%, Markham -12.9%, Scarborough -10.6%). They note 2026 rates are expected to stay on hold, but economists diverge on possible moderate 2027 hikes. RBC’s household wealth report shows real estate added to net worth for the first time in a year, but savings are falling and mortgage originations are at a two-year low, indicating fragile stabilization.   00:00 Market Signals Setup 01:08 Three Themes Framework 01:32 CMHC Rental Update 02:06 New vs Old Buildings 03:32 Rethinking 3% Vacancy 04:55 Turnover Rent Reset 07:20 Rentalsca Report 08:09 Ontario Suburb Slump 09:09 Asking vs Average Rents 11:52 Free LIM Community 12:09 BoC Rate Hold 13:41 2027 Economist Split 15:40 Mortgage Renewal Tailwind 17:06 RBC Wealth Update 19:14 Episode Themes Recap 20:38 Wrap Up And Disclosures   About Your Hosts:  Addy Saeed: With over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, I've navigated through the complexities of property investment, development, and management. My goal is to demystify real estate investing for our listeners.     Web Links Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-ma...  Get access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com

Ontario's Market Report Card - Prices, Policy & the Path Forward

9 Investor Signals in GTA Real Estate: Condo Distress, BoC Hold, DC Cuts & CMHC Underwriting Changes   Addy Saeed breaks down nine headlines as investor signals for Ontario real estate, focusing on GTA market data, policy levers, and labor trends. TRREB’s May numbers show sales up 6.3% but new listings down 18.9%, with prices still falling and a buyer’s-market SNLR of 35.7% (Toronto Central 31.6%); condos are most distressed, highlighted by a 416 vs 905 price inversion tied to investor-held units hitting resale and negative cash flows. May’s jobs report added 88,000 jobs and unemployment fell to 6.6%, but RBC and CIBC interpret the strength differently and both expect the Bank of Canada to stay on hold. Policy updates include Ontario’s DC reduction program (CMHC modeling shows a 50% Toronto cut adds 4,900–7,650 units annually), Building Ontario Fund gap-equity for a stalled Scarborough rental project, Mississauga pre-zoning, rising rental incentives, and a time-sensitive CMHC operating expense benchmark increase affecting insured multifamily underwriting after June 8.   00:00 Nine Investor Signals 00:29 Three Market Frames 00:59 May GTA Market Data 02:06 Condo Distress Signals 03:25 Mississauga Ground Truth 04:57 Jobs Report Two Reads 07:30 Development Charges Program 10:31 CMHC Benchmarks Deadline 13:11 Rental Incentives Surge 14:32 Institutional Land Thesis 16:08 London Starts Warning 17:14 Ontario Gap Equity Model 18:24 Mississauga Pre Zoning 19:40 Final Takeaways Wrap 21:28 Disclosures Disclaimer   About Your Hosts:  Addy Saeed: With over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, I've navigated through the complexities of property investment, development, and management. My goal is to demystify real estate investing for our listeners.     Web Links Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-ma...  Get access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com

Supply, Macro & Capital: Ontario's 2026 Setup

Ontario Housing Starts Surge—But It’s All Multifamily: CMHC Data, CIBC Forecast, Capital Shifts & New CMHC Benchmarks   Addy Saeed and mortgage agent Ribhu Rampersad unpack a data-heavy week covering CMHC April housing starts, CIBC’s provincial economic forecast, new CMHC supply modeling, and key policy/legal updates affecting Ontario multifamily. Ontario posted 6,680 starts in April (+25% YoY), driven entirely by multifamily (+32.8%) while single-detached fell (-18%); Toronto’s mix is overwhelmingly multi-unit, Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge spiked (855 starts, +235% YoY; +92% YTD), and Hamilton was volatile (27 starts, -86%). CIBC forecasts Ontario at 1% real GDP growth in 2026 with population down 0.7% YoY and renewal-driven consumption pressure, with a conditional 2027 rebound. They discuss development charge cuts, Canadian capital pulling back from US real estate, office conversion realities, a Pickering growth plan, contractor stress signals, an Alberta Court of Appeal decision allowing equity investors to trigger CCAA, and new CMHC underwriting benchmarks raising expenses and tightening insured multifamily financing starting June 8, 2026.   00:00 Welcome and Agenda 00:32 Three Big Themes 01:06 CMHC April Starts 02:14 Ontario Starts Breakdown 03:56 Pipeline Risks and Takeaways 05:30 CIBC Ontario Forecast 08:14 Macro Takeaways to Watch 09:27 CMHC Supply Elasticity Model 11:11 Policy Lag and Investor Thesis 13:15 Rapid Fire News Roundup 13:25 Development Charges Cut 14:31 Capital Leaving US Real Estate 15:21 Office to Residential Conversions 16:15 Pickering Growth Plan Risks 17:07 Contractor Stress and Holdbacks 18:04 Equity Investors Trigger CCAA 19:19 Connecting the Threads 21:12 Breaking CMHC Benchmark Update 22:39 Benchmark Impacts on Deals 23:55 Wrap Up and Disclosures   About Your Hosts: Addy Saeed: With over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, I've navigated through the complexities of property investment, development, and management. My goal is to demystify real estate investing for our listeners.    Web Links Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-ma... Get access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com