Supply shocks and fiscal math: How the war is stress-testing India’s economy

El Niño and weak domestic GST collections signal approaching headwinds for rural demand

In this episode of State of the Economy podcast, Shishir Sinha speaks with economist Rumki Mazumdar of Deloitte on India’s key high-frequency indicators. They discuss fiscal trends, GST collections, industrial output, inflation, and growth outlook amid global uncertainty and energy price volatility. The conversation highlights strong government support to the economy alongside fiscal discipline. While GST shows weaker domestic demand, imports remain strong. Industrial production is supported by sectors like machinery and pharmaceuticals, though some segments face pressure. They also discuss risks from El Niño, rising food and energy prices, and their impact on rural demand and inflation. Despite challenges, India’s growth remains resilient, supported by consumption and investment.

GST strong, consumption faces headwinds as risks mount

In this episode of State of the Economy, Shishir Sinha speaks with Ranen Banerjee, Leader, Economic Advisory Services at PwC India, on what the latest high-frequency indicators reveal. April’s record GST collections are increasingly driven by imports, pointing to softer domestic demand. The Podcast looks at the impact of tariffs and Middle East tensions on exports, input costs and MSMEs, and why consumption is likely to weaken through Q1. Inflation may stay near recent levels for now, but risks remain if fuel costs are passed through. Banerjee also explains why fiscal stress may not show up immediately, but could emerge later in the year. The episode examines the resilience in auto sales — supported by rural demand and premiumisation — and whether that can hold as broader headwinds build. (Host: Shishir Sinha, Producer: Siddharth Mathew Cherian

Supply shocks and fiscal math: How the war is stress-testing India’s economy

In this episode of Businessline’s State of the Economy, host Shishir Sinha speaks with Kanika Pasricha, Chief Economic Advisor at Union Bank of India, to decode the early economic impact of geopolitical disruptions through high-frequency indicators. From the sharp dip in manufacturing PMI driven by cost escalation and supply-side shocks, to why retail inflation remains capped—for now—the discussion offers a nuanced view of stress points and resilience in the economy. The episode also examines GST collection trends, fiscal deficit arithmetic amid base-year revisions, GDP growth risks, and what to expect from the upcoming RBI monetary policy meeting as uncertainty continues to shape policy choices.

Post-COVID catch-up: Is 7–8 per cent GDP growth enough for India?

In this episode of State of the Economy podcast, host Shishir Sinha talks to Yuvika Singhal, Economist at QuantEco, on India’s post-COVID growth prospects and GDP revisions. Singhal highlights stable growth of 7 per cent and over, methodological improvements, and fiscal implications. They discuss how rising crude prices and geopolitical events could influence growth and inflation, while GST and PMI data underscore the strength of domestic demand driving manufacturing momentum.

How India plans to stay competitive amid global turbulence | CEA V Anantha Nageswaran explains

In this episode of State of the Economy podcast, host Shishir Sinha speaks with V Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India, on how India is navigating an increasingly uncertain global economic environment.  Anantha Nageswaran acknowledges the headwinds confronting the global economy—geopolitical tensions, shifting trade patterns, and excess manufacturing capacity abroad—but argues that these challenges can serve as catalysts for reform rather than constraints. He outlines why a coordinated response is critical: governments must provide policy clarity and expand trade partnerships, businesses must invest in innovation and competitiveness, and households must focus on skill development and resilience.  The conversation also explores the idea of Swadeshi beyond slogans. Anantha Nageswaran explains why indigenisation is essential in a world of weaponised supply chains, while cautioning against permanent protectionism that shelters inefficiency. On PLI schemes and exports, he underlines that incentives are only one tool among many, with structural cost reforms and free trade agreements playing a crucial role. 🎧 Listen in to the full podcast for more details.