Beijing's Syria Calculus: Assessing Sino-Syrian Relations Post-Assad

Diplomacy from Scratch: Unpacking Syria’s New Foreign Policy

Syria has spent the past eighteen months dismantling the foreign policy architecture of the Assad era and replacing it with something new. Sanctions have been lifted, Arab ties restored, and a foreign minister with no career diplomatic background has become the public face of Syria's re-emergence on the world stage. The pace has been remarkable. Whether it reflects a coherent strategic vision, or the appearance of one, is a harder question. In this episode, The Syria Spectrum is joined by Danny Al-Baaj, a former Syrian diplomat recently reinstated to the Foreign Ministry and Senior Fellow at the Omran Centre for Strategic Studies, for a frank assessment of where Syrian foreign policy actually stands. We examine the three tracks shaping Damascus's international engagement: Arab normalisation, the Western sanctions architecture and the unresolved State Sponsor of Terrorism designation, and a relationship with Ankara that is indispensable but not without friction. The conversation also turns inward. What did the new government actually inherit when it took over the ministry? How have appointments been made, and by what criteria? Where does genuine institutional capacity exist — and where are the gaps that could quietly constrain Syria's diplomatic ambitions?

The Balancing Act: Overview of Syrian-Israeli Relations

Syrian–Israeli relations have never been symmetrical. For decades, Damascus treated Israel as a defining strategic adversary—while Israel largely handled Syria as a “secondary file.” That old hierarchy is gone. Since the fall of Assad on 8 December 2024, the Syria file has become impossible to ignore: Israeli forces moved into the UN-monitored separation area, launched a sweeping strike campaign, and a new—uneasy—diplomatic track began to take shape. In this episode, host Zakaria Al Shmaly offers a policy-first overview of how we got here—from the post-1948 security order and the 1974 “managed frontier,” to today’s high-stakes negotiations. Joined by Elizabeth Tsurkov (New Lines Institute; Princeton University), the conversation breaks down what is actually being negotiated, what each side wants, and why the path forward is so fragile. We unpack the most concrete outcome so far: a US-supervised communication mechanism meant to coordinate de-escalation and prevent escalation spirals—alongside the realities on the ground that continue to test it. From withdrawal and demilitarization to domestic politics in Israel and state-building dilemmas in Syria, this is a candid discussion about the difference between peace and security architecture—and the spoilers that could derail both. In this episode, we focus on four questions: What is being negotiated—really? What interests and leverage does each side have? Where are the red lines (floors and ceilings of a deal)? What could spoil the process—and what signals to watch? As always, Syria Spectrum brings you policy through perspectives—without the shortcuts.

Security Sector Reform in Syria: One Year into the Transition

One year after the fall of the Assad regime, Syria’s transition has moved beyond the initial political moment and into the far more demanding phase of consolidating state authority. At the center of this process lies security sector reform. In this episode, Gregory Waters, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Program, analyzes Syria’s fragmented security landscape, the institutional and political constraints on reform, and the risks associated with partial or delayed integration of armed actors. The discussion assesses what has realistically changed over the past year and why security governance will ultimately determine the success or failure of Syria’s transition.

Beijing's Syria Calculus: Assessing Sino-Syrian Relations Post-Assad

China’s long bet on Assad collapsed overnight, forcing Beijing to confront a Syria reshaped by new leadership, shifting alliances, and rising regional competition. As Damascus recalibrates its foreign policy, China now finds itself weighing security threats, economic opportunity, and geopolitical risk in a rapidly evolving landscape. In this episode, we examine what China wants in post-Assad Syria, what Syria needs from Beijing, and how this relationship could reshape sanctions relief, reconstruction, and regional diplomacy. Featuring expert insights from Jesse Marks

Choice or Illusion: Unpacking Syria's Parliamentary Elections with Mutasem Al-Syoufi

Syria’s October 2025 parliamentary elections were presented as a milestone in the country’s political transition, the first to take place since the fall of Bashar al-Assad. Yet beneath the language of reform, the process remained tightly managed, reflecting familiar patterns of control and limited participation. The elections ultimately raised a fundamental question: were they a genuine exercise of choice or an illusion of it? In our first episode, Mutasem Al-Syoufi of The Day After (TDA) unpacks what the vote truly delivered and what it reveals about the trajectory of Syria’s political transition. Expert Guest: A long-time advocate for democratic reform, Mutasem has been active in Syria’s civic and political landscape since the early 2000s, taking part in the Damascus Spring and Damascus Declaration movements. Under his leadership, TDA has become a leading organisation advancing Syria’s democratic transition, supporting electoral governance, training local councils, and providing technical assistance to the Syrian Supreme Elections Committee for the October 2025 parliamentary elections to promote transparency, inclusivity, and credible participation.