017 - The Hidden Reason Billion-Dollar Projects Overrun Even With Stage Gate

Bonus Episode: The One Skill Every Future Project Leader Needs with Iwona Wilson

In this bonus segment, Iwona Wilson shares her advice for the next generation of project leaders. She makes the case for developing critical thinking above all else, explains how AI is reshaping the skills students need to stay relevant, and offers practical guidance on where to find the right experiences early in your career. Iwona also walks through her book, her decision gate training program, and where to connect with her online.

017 - The Hidden Reason Billion-Dollar Projects Overrun Even With Stage Gate

Every major capital project team will tell you they have a decision gate process. According to Iwona Wilson, having the process and having the capability to use it are two completely different things - and the gap between them is costing the industry hundreds of millions per project. Iwona Wilson is co-founder and CEO of Wolfson Peace Consulting and author of Where Projects Are Won or Lost: A Practical Guide to Early Decision Framing and Governance. With 20 years across oil and gas, mining, and capital projects in Australia, the UK, and the US - including over a decade teaching decision gate process at one of Australia's largest energy producers, she's built her career around the question most organizations don't ask until it's too late: are we making good decisions, or just passing gates? Iwona Wilson is co-founder and CEO of Wolfson Peace Consulting and author of Where Projects Are Won or Lost: A Practical Guide to Early Decision Framing and Governance. With 20 years across oil and gas, mining, and capital projects in Australia, the UK, and the US, she specializes in decision gate process, opportunity framing, and building the organizational capabilities that separate projects that deliver from those that overrun. https://www.linkedin.com/in/iwona-wilson/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/iwona-wilson/] What You'll Learn 1. Having a decision gate process is not the same as having decision-making capability Most organizations have phases, templates, and mandatory gate checklists. What they're missing is the ability to frame opportunities, challenge assumptions, align stakeholders across functions, and measure decision quality. When companies call Iwona for help, it's almost always after a major overrun or project cancellation - not before. The process without the capability is an approval system, not a governance system. 2. Projects are won or lost before the FID - and most organizations ignore this The final investment decision gets all the attention. But by the time it arrives, the team is emotionally, politically, and financially committed. Real leverage lives in the assess and concept phases, when assumptions are still negotiable and changes are cheapest. Iwona's rule: all decisions are equally important, but not all carry the same consequences. The early ones carry the most — because no one's watching yet. 3. Six dimensions of decision quality - and why commitment is always the weakest Iwona teaches the decision quality wheel: appropriate frame, creative alternatives, relevant information, values and trade-offs, sound logic, and commitment to action. The quality of your decision is only as good as its weakest dimension. Teams can produce brilliant analysis and clear options — and still have no one willing to own the outcome. Commitment is where good decisions die. 4. Opportunity framing workshops work because they're designed to be uncomfortable Traditional meetings self-censor. When real disagreement surfaces — what researcher Sam Kaner calls the "groan zone" - most leaders schedule a follow-up and call it progress. Opportunity framing workshops use a neutral facilitator to carry teams through that discomfort intentionally. Teams that do the hard work early execute faster and encounter fewer surprises. "An opportunity framing workshop can be really messy," Iwona says. "But this is the cost of alignment." Episode Timestamps 00:00 — Introduction 02:00 — Iwona's path from quality assurance and Young's Brewery to capital projects 05:00 — Decision gate process 101: phases, gates, FID, and post-investment review 10:00 — Why project compliance doesn't produce project confidence 17:00 — The owner's responsibility: who is actually accountable for project success 22:00 — Shifting teams from deliverables focus to decision-making focus 28:00 — Why early decisions matter more than FID — and cost the least to change 35:00 — Warning signs that your gate reviews are theater, not governance 44:00 — Opportunity framing workshops: the groan zone and the cost of alignment 58:00 — The Challenger disaster and what megaprojects still miss about frontline knowledge 1:02:00 — Six dimensions of decision quality and the commitment trap 1:09:00 — The billion-dollar math: $500M average overrun on a $1B project Resources Mentioned * Decision Analysis — David Skinner (founder, Society of Decision Professionals) * Where Projects Are Won or Lost — Iwona Wilson and Austin Wilson (available on Amazon) * Society of Decision Professionals — sdpro.org [http://sdpro.org] (Houston chapter, University of Houston student chapter) * Wolfson Peace Consulting — www.wilson.biz [http://www.wilson.biz/] * Decision gate training and cohort — academy.wilson.biz [http://academy.wilson.biz] * Upcoming: Global Project Management Forum, Riyadh (September); PMI Houston Conference (August)

016 - Risk Management on Megaprojects: Lessons from the Leviathan Project

Most major projects manage risk in Excel. Matt Mitchell spent a decade managing it differently - including as risk lead on a $3.9 billion offshore gas platform in the Mediterranean. In this episode, Orion sits down with Matt Mitchell — a certified risk management professional with over a decade of experience across energy and industrial megaprojects — to go deep on one of the most underinvested disciplines in capital project delivery: risk management. Drawing on his time as risk lead for the Leviathan Project, a $3.9 billion offshore gas platform off the coast of Israel, Matt explains how risk management actually works at scale — from structuring workshops to running Monte Carlo simulations to navigating the political dynamics that keep real risks hidden. Whether you're a risk professional, a project manager, or an executive who's wondered what risk management is actually supposed to deliver, this is the most practical conversation on the subject we've had on the show. Matt Mitchell is a certified risk management professional with over a decade of experience in risk and project controls across energy and industrial sectors. He served as risk lead at Noble Energy on the Leviathan Project — a $3.9 billion offshore gas platform in the Mediterranean — managing risk from FID through execution. He is currently building Electrical Grid Monitoring, a venture focused on innovative power line sensors, and is a member of Mints International. 🔗 LinkedIn [https://www.notion.so/2af5590dfa3e8136b7c2f648e5c0c2fd?v=2af5590dfa3e8155a4d7000c19a746e2&p=36d5590dfa3e8039ac1dcc6c74cb652f&pm=s] What You'll Learn 1. Split risk registers aren't a workaround — they're best practice On Leviathan, Matt maintained separate registers for different project levels and stakeholder groups. A single monolithic register collapses under the weight of a megaproject. Splitting by owner, contractor, and discipline keeps risk ownership clear and review meetings productive. 2. Risk workshops only work if contractors feel safe to speak The most dangerous risks on a megaproject live inside your contractors' heads — and they won't share them in a room full of owners unless you create the right conditions. Matt's approach: structured workshops with pre-work, clear ground rules, and a facilitator who knows when to push and when to hold back. 3. Monte Carlo isn't just for statisticians P50 means you have a 50% chance of finishing on time or on budget. P75 means 75%. Matt explains how to have that conversation with an executive who's never seen a probability distribution — and why choosing the wrong confidence level can sink your contingency strategy before the project starts. 4. Risk culture is built one conversation at a time "One is greater than zero" — Matt's philosophy for getting risk identification started when a team is stuck. The risk champions program he describes is a practical model for distributing risk ownership across a large, multi-contractor project without creating bureaucracy. Episode Timestamps 00:00 — Introduction 03:00 — Matt's background and path to megaproject risk management 07:00 — The Leviathan Project: $3.9B offshore gas platform overview 10:00 — Risk fundamentals: definitions, COSO framework, and black swans 18:00 — Designing and running effective risk workshops 22:00 — The valve example: one conversation that revealed a systemic risk 27:00 — Getting contractors to surface the risks they're hiding 30:00 — Monte Carlo simulation explained in plain language 34:00 — P50 vs. P75: choosing your confidence level and defending it 39:00 — Ancient artifacts on the seafloor: when risk becomes archaeology 40:00 — Risk champions program and building a risk culture across contractors Resources Mentioned: * ISO 31000 — International risk management framework * COSO ERM — Enterprise Risk Management framework * PMI (Project Management Institute) — project risk guidance * PERT — Program Evaluation Review Technique (for smaller projects) * Monte Carlo simulation — quantitative risk analysis methodology * Noble Energy / Leviathan Project * Electrical Grid Monitoring — Matt's current venture * Mints International If this episode gave you new frameworks for managing risk on complex projects, subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. And if you're building a risk culture in your organization, we'd love to hear what's working — drop a comment below or connect with Matt directly.

150+ Years of Project Controls Wisdom: Lessons from Four AACE Presidents

Before the panel started, the moderator was warned: "Good luck controlling this bunch." Four AACE presidents. 150+ combined years. They lived up to it. Recorded live at the 2026 AACE Houston Gulf Coast Symposium, host Orion Matthews sits down with four current and former AACE International Presidents for an unfiltered conversation on leadership, AI, remote work, and the future of project controls - drawing on decades of experience across megaproject delivery, cost engineering, claims, and global capital programs. The megaproject industry hits cost, schedule, and production targets just 1% of the time. Martin Darley dropped this number mid-conversation and the panel barely flinched - because they've all seen it. The question isn't whether there's a problem. It's why, after 150+ combined years of experience, the same mistakes keep repeating. The panel's answer points to a gap that has nothing to do with technical skill. The gap between a strong technical contributor and a trusted advisor isn't technical - it's soft skills. Martin put it directly: "The differentiator between doing the work and advising a GM at Chevron is soft skills. Cost engineers aren't wired that way." Chris Caddell echoed it with a paper he wrote on the "so what?" problem: too many project controls reports lay out numbers without making a recommendation. Learning to influence, communicate, and own a call is the career unlock most technical professionals never fully make. Remote work works better for experienced practitioners than for people just starting out. The panel wasn't anti-remote, but the sharpest line came from Martin, quoting IPA's Ed Mirro: "If you're in your bedroom on a laptop, how do you manage your career?" Michael Bennick added a specific concern: new professionals starting out fully remote miss the informal learning, mentorship, and calibration that only comes from proximity to experienced practitioners. The consensus was clear - site presence builds instincts that can't be replicated through a screen. AI won't replace project controls professionals - but it will change what the job looks like. As sitting AACE president overseeing 6,000+ members, Michael Bennick framed it as an opportunity, not a threat - and argued the association has an obligation to help members get out front on it. Martin's enthusiasm was the strongest in the room: "I've been waiting all my career for an enabler like this." Mike Nosbisch held the line on what won't change: someone still has to interpret the output, make the recommendation, and own the decision. The judgment-makers aren't going anywhere. Timestamps 00:00 – Intro & Welcome to the LIVE AACE Panel 01:30 – How the Panelists Found Their Way into Project Controls 05:00 – Early Career Lessons & Megaproject Experiences 08:30 – Technical Skills vs Leadership Skills 12:00 – Why Communication Is Critical in Project Controls 16:00 – AI in Project Controls: Opportunity vs Hype 22:00 – How AI Could Change Reporting & Decision-Making 26:30 – Remote Work vs In-Person Collaboration 31:30 – International Projects & Cultural Differences 35:00 – Why Megaprojects Keep Repeating the Same Mistakes 38:30 – Advice for Young Professionals Entering the Industry 41:30 – Final Leadership Lessons & Closing Thoughts Featured Guests * Michael Bennick — Current President of AACE International, Managing Director at J.S. Held * Chris Caddell — Former AACE President, Director at Spire Consulting Group * Martin Darley — Former AACE President, Former Senior Advisor at Chevron * Michael Nosbisch — Former AACE President, Visiting Professor at Texas A&M University

015 - The Talent Crisis in Project Controls: Why the Next Generation Is Opting Out

The project controls industry has a looming problem—and it's not technical. In this episode, Orion sits down with Christina Robinson — founder of Henry Porter LLC and project controls advisor with 14 years across energy, utilities, and infrastructure — to diagnose a crisis that most industry leaders are misreading. The problem isn't a skills shortage: it's a culture and systems problem that's causing younger professionals to actively choose other paths. Christina makes the case that if organizations don't redesign how they work, how they lead, and how they treat people, no amount of recruiting will fix the pipeline. Christina Robinson is a project controls advisor and founder of Henry Porter LLC, a consultancy helping organizations build stronger project controls functions across energy, utilities, and infrastructure. With 14 years of industry experience, Christina is a vocal advocate for modernizing workplace culture and building more inclusive, human-centered project environments — and she brings both the professional track record and the personal candor to make this conversation one of the most honest in the series. https://www.linkedin.com/in/christina-robinson-128960383/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/christina-robinson-128960383/] Key Takeaways: * The talent pipeline problem is structural, not generational. Christina pushes back on the idea that younger professionals simply don't want to work hard. The real issue is that project controls is asking people to accept rigid systems, limited autonomy, and slow career progression at the exact moment that entrepreneurship, digital platforms, and the creator economy are offering faster rewards and greater flexibility. It's not a values gap — it's a rational calculation. * Outdated workflows are your biggest retention risk. When new hires encounter legacy systems and manual processes that haven't evolved in decades, it doesn't just frustrate them — it signals something about the organization. That signal says: we don't change. And that's what triggers early exits before the organization even realizes it has a retention problem. * Culture and inclusion aren't soft issues — they're project delivery issues. Christina draws directly on personal experience to connect how bias and exclusion affect retention, particularly for underrepresented groups. Teams where people don't feel valued or supported underperform on projects. The link between psychological safety and project outcomes is direct, not theoretical. * You don't have to overhaul everything to start competing for talent. Christina's practical advice: identify one or two visible friction points — a rigid attendance policy, a broken workflow, a missing flexibility — and change them deliberately. Early, visible wins build organizational trust and send a signal to both candidates and current employees that the culture is actually moving.   ⏱️ Timestamps 00:00 – Intro & Episode Setup 01:00 – Christina’s Career Journey into Project Controls 04:45 – Why Early Site Experience Matters 06:15 – Is There a Youth Engagement Crisis? 08:45 – Social Media, Expectations & Changing Motivations 10:15 – What Younger Professionals Actually Want (4 Key Drivers) 12:15 – Fixing Broken Workflows & Investing in Technology 13:45 – Flexibility, Remote Work & Mental Health 16:15 – Generational Shifts & Workplace Evolution 20:45 – Pay, Autonomy & the Breakdown of the Corporate Ladder 23:45 – ROI of a Happier Workforce 27:00 – How Leaders Can Attract & Retain Talent 34:30 – Workplace Culture, Discrimination & Retention Risks 49:15 – Remote vs. Onsite: Finding the Right Balance 57:30 – Advice for Young Professionals Entering the Industry 1:02:00 – Books, Resources & Final Takeaways   Resources Mentioned: * Henry Porter LLC [https://henryporterllc.com/] — Christina's consultancy * Package Your Genius by Amanda Miller Littlejohn * Good American / Emma Grede — entrepreneurship and leadership insights * Texas Southern University — early pipeline partnership example