Episode 111: USDA Section 515 Portfolio Is Shrinking Fast

Episode 112: HUD's 2023 LIHTC Tenant Data Shows Record Low Incomes

HUD's newly released LIHTC Tenant Tables for 2023 reveal that 57.2% of LIHTC residents earn 30% or less of area median gross income — the highest share of extremely low-income tenants ever recorded in the dataset. With a national median tenant income of just $18,600 and nearly half of all residents receiving rental assistance, the data paints a clear picture of who the program is actually serving and raises urgent questions for investors, developers, and policymakers about income targeting, layered subsidy, and underwriting assumptions. Key Takeaways: * 57.2% of LIHTC residents are classified as extremely low-income (≤30% AMI) — the highest share ever recorded in this dataset. * Only 6.2% of residents earn more than 60% AMI, meaning the program is heavily concentrated well below its statutory eligibility ceiling. * 48.3% of LIHTC residents received monthly rental assistance in 2023 — the highest share since HUD began tracking this figure in 2015. * The national median LIHTC tenant income was $18,600; nearly 20% of households reported annual income of $10,000 or less. * The growing share of assisted tenants signals deepening interdependence between the LIHTC program and the Housing Choice Voucher system. * This data strengthens the policy case for extremely low-income set-asides and deeper income targeting in state QAPs. * Developers and underwriters should reassess rent collection risk assumptions given the declining income profile of the LIHTC tenant population. The 2023 Tenant Tables arrive at a moment when state housing finance agencies are refining their qualified allocation plans and Congress is debating the future of both the LIHTC program and the voucher system. The convergence of these policy tracks matters: if nearly half of LIHTC tenants depend on rental assistance to afford a tax credit unit, program design decisions made in Washington and in state capitals are more tightly coupled than ever. Stakeholders across the capital stack should be using this data now — in QAP comment periods, in advocacy, and in deal structuring. Subscribe to The Spring Street Brief for daily updates on affordable housing in America.

Episode 111: USDA Section 515 Portfolio Is Shrinking Fast

The Housing Assistance Council's latest research brief confirms what many rural housing advocates have feared: USDA's Section 515 Multifamily Housing portfolio is shrinking faster than scheduled maturities alone would explain. With 504 properties already gone ahead of their loan maturity dates and seven Midwestern states each losing more than 10% of their Section 515 stock since 2021, the affordable rural housing supply is eroding now — and USDA's own projections show the worst is still ahead, with exits peaking around 2040 and the program potentially depleted by 2056. Key Takeaways: * 504 Section 515 properties have exited the portfolio before their mortgage maturity date — signaling early opt-outs and deterioration, not just scheduled wind-down. * Seven states — Nebraska, North Dakota, Michigan, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Iowa — each lost more than 10% of their Section 515 housing stock between 2021 and 2026. * Michigan recorded the largest unit loss: 2,072 affordable rural housing units departed the program in just five years. * Losses are concentrated in the Midwest and Upper Great Plains, where early Section 515 loans are now reaching maturity — making this a regional crisis first, but a national one soon. * USDA projects annual exits will accelerate sharply, peaking around 2040, with complete program depletion possible by 2056. * Section 515 markets largely fall outside the LIHTC financing stack, meaning lost units are rarely replaced by conventional affordable housing mechanisms. * Preservation opportunities exist now in the seven hardest-hit states — before the exit curve steepens further. For LIHTC investors, syndicators, and rural lenders, this brief is a signal to watch for preservation vehicles targeting Section 515 — including potential loan restructuring programs, new USDA appropriations, and rural housing tax credit proposals that have been circulating in Congress. The states losing the most units today are also the states most likely to assemble preservation pipelines first. That's where the near-term deal flow will be. Subscribe to The Spring Street Brief for daily updates on affordable housing in America.

Episode 110: FY 2026 CoC NOFO Faces New Legal Challenge

A coalition of local governments and nonprofits has filed a supplemental complaint challenging HUD's FY 2026 Continuum of Care Notice of Funding Opportunity, arguing it mirrors the version a federal court already found likely unlawful in December 2025. With applications still due August 26, developers and syndicators structuring supportive housing deals with CoC operating subsidies face real underwriting uncertainty as the litigation advances. Key Takeaways: * Plaintiffs filed a supplemental complaint in the existing CoC lawsuit, extending the legal challenge from the FY 2025 NOFO to the newly released FY 2026 NOFO. * A preliminary injunction issued in December 2025 already blocked HUD's altered FY 2025 CoC NOFO, reverting to the prior FY 2024–25 version. * Plaintiffs argue the FY 2026 NOFO "bears many similarities to the version the court already determined likely to be unlawful" — strong language signaling a high-confidence legal posture. * FY 2026 CoC applications are still due August 26, despite the active litigation — applicants must decide whether to proceed under a potentially enjoined NOFO. * CoC operating subsidies are frequently paired with LIHTC equity in permanent supportive housing deals; litigation-driven disruption creates bankability risk for deals in predevelopment. * Any emergency motion for a temporary restraining order before August 26 could force HUD to extend the deadline or revert to prior NOFO terms. * Developers and syndicators with CoC-dependent deals should build contingency language into timelines and monitor court dockets closely. This case is a live test of HUD's authority to reshape the CoC program's criteria and emphasis through the NOFO process alone. If the court extends injunctive relief to the FY 2026 cycle, it would mark the second consecutive year HUD's CoC funding notice has been blocked — a significant constraint on the agency's ability to redirect the program without statutory or regulatory change. Stakeholders across the supportive housing spectrum should treat August 26 as a fluid target and maintain close contact with their legal counsel and CoC intermediaries as the case develops. Subscribe to The Spring Street Brief for daily updates on affordable housing in America.

Episode 109: Connecticut CHFA Releases Draft 2027–2028 QAP

The Connecticut Housing Finance Authority (CHFA) has released its draft Qualified Allocation Plan (QAP) for 2027 and 2028, opening a brief public comment window that closes July 10, 2026. For LIHTC developers, syndicators, investors, and lenders active in Connecticut, this two-year plan will govern how CHFA scores and ranks tax credit applications through the end of 2028 — making early engagement critical for anyone with a Connecticut pipeline. Key Takeaways: * CHFA's draft QAP covers two full allocation cycles — 2027 and 2028 — giving it an unusually long governance horizon for Connecticut LIHTC deals. * A virtual public hearing is scheduled for July 7, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET via Zoom; all stakeholders are invited to participate. * Written comments are accepted through close of business July 10, 2026 — just three days after the hearing. * Submissions can be sent by email or by mail to Terry Nash Giovannucci, CHFA, 999 West Street, Rocky Hill, CT 06067. * QAP provisions that merit close review include scoring criteria, set-aside allocations, geographic targeting, income targeting requirements, and developer fee caps — all of which directly affect deal feasibility. * Syndicators and investors should use the draft to anticipate deal flow composition (project type, location, tenant population) from Connecticut over the next two years. * Any party with active or planned Connecticut LIHTC applications should prioritize submitting formal comments before the July 10 deadline. With a two-year QAP, CHFA is setting the rules of the road for Connecticut affordable housing finance through the end of 2028. Changes embedded in this draft — whether to basis limits, scoring weights, or set-aside priorities — will compound across two full funding rounds. Stakeholders who engage now, during the comment period, have the best opportunity to shape outcomes before the plan is finalized. Subscribe to The Spring Street Brief for daily updates on affordable housing in America.

Episode 108: HUD Waitlists RAD for PRAC Submissions Using PRI

HUD has announced that all Preservation Rent Increase (PRI) funding available under the RAD for PRAC program has been exhausted for calendar year 2026. Any new RAD for Section 202/Project Rental Assistance Contract conversion plan submissions that include PRI funding and were submitted after May 29, 2026, will be waitlisted on a first-come, first-served basis. For sponsors, syndicators, lenders, and investors active in elderly affordable housing preservation, this announcement has immediate deal-structuring consequences. Key Takeaways: * All PRI funding available under RAD for PRAC has been fully exhausted for calendar year 2026. * New RAD for PRAC conversion plan submissions with PRI submitted after May 29, 2026, will be waitlisted and evaluated first-come, first-served. * HUD's immediate priority is to assess funding availability and obligations tied to submissions already in the pipeline as of June 25, 2026. * Deals submitted before May 29 are likely queue-protected; post-cutoff submissions face an indeterminate hold. * PRI is often the critical bridge between existing PRAC contract rents and the rents required to support debt service in a conversion — making its absence a potential deal-stopper for many transactions. * No timeline has been published for when HUD will resolve the backlog or when new PRI capacity may become available. * Sponsors with post-cutoff submissions should confirm their waitlist position and engage their HUD field office directly to understand deal status relative to the June 25 assessment date. The exhaustion of PRI capacity this far into the calendar year signals that demand for RAD for PRAC conversions is outpacing available resources — a reflection of both the scale of need in the aging Section 202 housing stock and a rapidly building pipeline. Stakeholders should monitor HUD's funding assessment closely and evaluate whether alternative deal structures are viable while awaiting PRI availability. Proactive communication with HUD field offices and early queue positioning will be essential for deals dependent on this funding source. Subscribe to The Spring Street Brief for daily updates on affordable housing in America.